January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[TSSN+]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:28 PM, psuhoffman said:

I would sacrifice a decade of 3-5” storms for a 50/50 shot at a hecs. 

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If it was a 100% going to happen sure but let’s face it it probably won’t. I’ll take something over nothing. 

[stormtracker]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:28 PM, Solution Man said:

We take

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Apologize.  4-6.   These maps are horrendous

[Solution Man]

Liking 219

[mdhokie]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:30 PM, Ji said:

im guessing this will keep trending south/colder

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6 days away from a cutter to chicago.

[Shad]

liking 222

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:29 PM, Ji said:

because psu told me  too

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Now you listen 

[CAPE]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:30 PM, Ji said:

im guessing this will keep trending south/colder

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and then NC gets a foot+ for the next one while we smokin' cirrus?

[Solution Man]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:31 PM, stormtracker said:

Apologize.  4-6.   These maps are horrendous

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You have the mic…222

[stormtracker]

Nice h5 map for the 8th, but it's gonna be too far offshore.   But way out there and we got time to hook that one in.   For now, at least we have a trackable system on the 6th

[mitchnick]

With the cut intact, may set up for big dog.

[stormtracker]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:33 PM, Solution Man said:

You have the mic…222

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It's a dud verbatim

[Solution Man]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:35 PM, stormtracker said:

It's a dud verbatim

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Yep

[Ji]

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

[87storms]

Not the greatest SLP track...but it's cold leading in.  Would be really cool to get a track underneath for a change, though we did score with some systems in 2015 this way.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024122912&fh=192

[NorthArlington101]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:35 PM, Ji said:

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

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idk if that bodes well for the 8-9th either - don’t you sorta need the 5-6 storm to cut?

[Ji]

watch us get ice for jan 5-6 and then supresssed Jan 9-10 giving us no snow heading into mid January

[stormtracker]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:35 PM, Ji said:

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

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We're 7 and a half days away.

[North Balti Zen]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:36 PM, Ji said:

watch us get ice for jan 5-6 and then supresssed Jan 9-10 giving us no snow heading into mid January

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Yes.

[psuhoffman]

The further north solutions with wave 1 leaves the batoclinic boundary closer to us which puts us in the game for a bigger event wave 2 which is more of a stj wave coming from a better angle. More miller A. Higher upside. 
 

That doesn’t mean there is no path to two hits. A west primary track with better CAD and a 3-6” thump to dry a lot is very much a scenario that could lead to a nice first event and leave the door open to wave 2. But if the lead wave ends up tracking under us and leaves the boundary down through SC we’re probably cooked for the second wave and that becomes a NC SC snow threat. 
 

That’s just how I see the permutations here but what I want or say doesn’t matter and won’t affect the outcome so…

[NorthArlington101]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

The further north solutions with wave 1 leaves the batoclinic boundary closer to us which puts us in the game for a bigger event wave 2 which is more of a stj wave coming from a better angle. More miller A. Higher upside. 
 

That doesn’t mean there is no path to two hits. A west primary track with better CAD and a 3-6” thump to dry a lot is very much a scenario that could lead to a nice first event and leave the door open to wave 2. But if the lead wave ends up tracking just us and leaves the boundary down through SC we’re probably cooked for the second wave and that becomes a NC SC snow threat. 
 

That’s just how I see the permutations here not what I want or say doesn’t matter and won’t affect the outcome so…

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the SC/NC/GA mets have been very excited about this pattern. Would love this to work for all parties!

[Ji]

the 12z gfs for storm 2 looked way better for 6z....kind of where you want it to be this far out

[Shad]

canadian brings the hammer down with COLD next weekend

[Ji]

the canada model whiffs on both events. No ice or snow

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:39 PM, Ji said:

the 12z gfs for storm 2 looked way better for 6z....kind of where you want it to be this far out

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Could be the typical have the storm lose the storm while we track something closer in time. Weren't the earlier runs of the GFS last week keying in on January 5th to 7th might just be a timing thing. 

[TSSN+]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:34 PM, stormtracker said:

Nice h5 map for the 8th, but it's gonna be too far offshore.   But way out there and we got time to hook that one in.   For now, at least we have a trackable system on the 6th

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Ya with that h5 the surface should be better. We got plenty of time 

[clskinsfan]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:35 PM, Ji said:

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

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I would be heart breaking. Short Pump for the win.

[TSSN+]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:41 PM, Ji said:

the canada model whiffs on both events. No ice or snow

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Thankfully it’s one of the worst models by far. 

[NorthArlington101]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:41 PM, Ji said:

the canada model whiffs on both events. No ice or snow

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It’s really close on Dec. 7… in the range you just said you wanted it to be on the GFS!

[Ji]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:40 PM, Shad said:

canadian brings the hammer down with COLD next weekend

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nobody cares unless it snows

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:39 PM, Ji said:

the 12z gfs for storm 2 looked way better for 6z....kind of where you want it to be this far out

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Anyone upset at this gfs run is lacking perspective. No single run is likely to be 100% accurate at that range or even close. It’s well within a typical expected error of a hit this run. That’s all that matters.