January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Who cares. Stfu. Why are you wanting to kill off a solid hit for a hope and a prayer from something else. 

because psu told me  too

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The confluence and high to the north I feel like should keep this more south than depicted but I guess we will see what future runs show. 

Yeah, thats what I was thinking.   But I never say what's not possible.   Just seemed like the confluence would do the dirty work we need

[Ji]

im guessing this will keep trending south/colder

[Terpeast]

Its similar to 6z just 6 hours slower

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I would sacrifice a decade of 3-5” storms for a 50/50 shot at a hecs. 

If it was a 100% going to happen sure but let’s face it it probably won’t. I’ll take something over nothing. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We take

Apologize.  4-6.   These maps are horrendous

[Solution Man]

Liking 219

[mdhokie]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

im guessing this will keep trending south/colder

6 days away from a cutter to chicago.

[Shad]

liking 222

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

because psu told me  too

Now you listen 

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

im guessing this will keep trending south/colder

and then NC gets a foot+ for the next one while we smokin' cirrus?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Apologize.  4-6.   These maps are horrendous

You have the mic…222

[stormtracker]

Nice h5 map for the 8th, but it's gonna be too far offshore.   But way out there and we got time to hook that one in.   For now, at least we have a trackable system on the 6th

[mitchnick]

With the cut intact, may set up for big dog.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

You have the mic…222

It's a dud verbatim

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a dud verbatim

Yep

[Ji]

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

[87storms]

Not the greatest SLP track...but it's cold leading in.  Would be really cool to get a track underneath for a change, though we did score with some systems in 2015 this way.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024122912&fh=192

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

idk if that bodes well for the 8-9th either - don’t you sorta need the 5-6 storm to cut?

[Ji]

watch us get ice for jan 5-6 and then supresssed Jan 9-10 giving us no snow heading into mid January

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

We're 7 and a half days away.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Ji said:

watch us get ice for jan 5-6 and then supresssed Jan 9-10 giving us no snow heading into mid January

Yes.

[psuhoffman]

The further north solutions with wave 1 leaves the batoclinic boundary closer to us which puts us in the game for a bigger event wave 2 which is more of a stj wave coming from a better angle. More miller A. Higher upside. 
 

That doesn’t mean there is no path to two hits. A west primary track with better CAD and a 3-6” thump to dry a lot is very much a scenario that could lead to a nice first event and leave the door open to wave 2. But if the lead wave ends up tracking under us and leaves the boundary down through SC we’re probably cooked for the second wave and that becomes a NC SC snow threat. 
 

That’s just how I see the permutations here but what I want or say doesn’t matter and won’t affect the outcome so…

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The further north solutions with wave 1 leaves the batoclinic boundary closer to us which puts us in the game for a bigger event wave 2 which is more of a stj wave coming from a better angle. More miller A. Higher upside. 
 

That doesn’t mean there is no path to two hits. A west primary track with better CAD and a 3-6” thump to dry a lot is very much a scenario that could lead to a nice first event and leave the door open to wave 2. But if the lead wave ends up tracking just us and leaves the boundary down through SC we’re probably cooked for the second wave and that becomes a NC SC snow threat. 
 

That’s just how I see the permutations here not what I want or say doesn’t matter and won’t affect the outcome so…

the SC/NC/GA mets have been very excited about this pattern. Would love this to work for all parties!

[Ji]

the 12z gfs for storm 2 looked way better for 6z....kind of where you want it to be this far out

[Shad]

canadian brings the hammer down with COLD next weekend

[Ji]

the canada model whiffs on both events. No ice or snow

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the 12z gfs for storm 2 looked way better for 6z....kind of where you want it to be this far out

Could be the typical have the storm lose the storm while we track something closer in time. Weren't the earlier runs of the GFS last week keying in on January 5th to 7th might just be a timing thing. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nice h5 map for the 8th, but it's gonna be too far offshore.   But way out there and we got time to hook that one in.   For now, at least we have a trackable system on the 6th

Ya with that h5 the surface should be better. We got plenty of time 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

cmc isnt even close to gfs for Jan 5-6

I would be heart breaking. Short Pump for the win.