January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[WEATHER53]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z GFS ensembles further SW than the OP with Jan 6 storm threat. We have a good 50/50 low for this

Mongolian reload and that region has been consistently producing  for a month.

Now the examples need to get to within 5 days to see if a low is coming up from the south A style. The transfer/phase jobs rarely work here 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Mongolian reload and that region has been consistently producing  for a month.

Now the examples need to get to within 5 days to see if a low is coming up from the south A style. The transfer/phase jobs rarely work here 

 

Thats what was so beautiful about last nights Euro run. Old school Miller A bomb. 

[WEATHER53]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We’ve identified the threat for every major MECS level snowstorm that hit our area since 2009 past 10 days.  None snuck up on us. We saw the window of opportunity for every one at long range.
 

Dec 2009, Feb 2010x2, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, Jan 2016, March 2018. And we identified some that were really close misses like Boxing Day, Dec 2018, Dec 2020, Feb 2021. No one is saying what any day 10 run is showing is likely to happen. It isn’t. Even if we get a big snow it won’t happen exactly like a day 10 run.  But this is simply about threat identification at this range. And we can and have successfully done that over the last 15 years. 

They don’t sneak up on us. You are completely correct.  But they overforecast  many events that never come to fruition. That’s what brings criticism 

[TSSN+]

12z gfs with way more confluence ahead of Jan 5-6 storm thru 120hrs. 

[stormtracker]

Test.  Testing.

Ok.

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Test.  Testing.

Ok.

so we going to sacrifice our 20-30 inch snowstorm for a 3-6 inch storm on Jan 6. Is that what we testing lol?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

so we going to sacrifice our 20-30 inch snowstorm for a 3-6 inch storm on Jan 6. Is that what we testing lol?

Changed your mind about that first system now haven't ya? Lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

so we going to sacrifice our 20-30 inch snowstorm for a 3-6 inch storm on Jan 6. Is that what we testing lol?

Relax.   At this rate, you're going to stroke out before you even get to next week.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

They don’t sneak up on us. You are completely correct.  But they overforecast  many events that never come to fruition. That’s what brings criticism 

But do they are are people reading the tool wrong?   A few years ago I created an objective tool and posted the 50% snowfall forecast from 24 hour cycles of the geps, gefs and eps to show people were interpreting it wrong due to bias.  They get excited about a run that shows snow and ignore the ones that don’t. They also use the mean which is skewed high by a few big snow solutions when the 50% plot snows what it really thinks. 
 

Right now for example based on the last 24 hour cycle we have about a 30% chance of a MECS level or higher snow and about a 50% of SECS. And about a 40% chance we get skunked the next 15 days. The most likely median outcome according to the whole guidance package is 1-4” across the area.  
 

But that’s really good. Having a better than 50% chance of snow in general but more so having a 30% chance at that range of a mecs level event is a rare high probability chance. But it’s still more likely to fail and that’s not the guidance failing that’s people who see the hecs runs and ignore that most don’t actually show that. 
 

At day 10 all we can do is identify threat windows and because we live in a very low snow area many of them will fail.  But we spend most of many winters in periods where there is absolutely no chance of a mecs snow. So having a period with 30% is worth noting imo!  

[stormtracker]

I'm not one to predict models, but if this cuts, it's 100% aliens. 

[psuhoffman]

Btw I think our chances of a MECs snow for this whole pattern, however long that is, is higher. Maybe closer to 50-60% based on historic results but the guidance doesn’t yet encompass the entirety of the period so I’m just talking about the 2 threats in the Jan 6-12th window. 

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not one to predict models, but if this cuts, it's 100% aliens. 

Might have to find a place for post  event oyster slurping .

[bncho]

GFS needs to Jan 6 to turn into a Miller B instead of cutting.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I'm starting to think the wheel isn't 100% stupid.

[stormtracker]

It's trying to cut, but confluence is doing the work SO FAR.   Primary trying to move nnw into Indiana, but CAD holding strong as precip is on our doorstep

[stormtracker]

Snowing in the area around 7am Monday with more precip moving NNW...decent slug too.  Hopefully the CAD holds

[stormtracker]

Heavy snow Monday morning...temps upstairs and down aren't even marginal...SO FAR

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS needs to Jan 6 to turn into a Miller B instead of cutting.

It's entering the west at a pretty high latitude, which is a thing sometimes, though looks like a snow to mix setup is possible with that first system.

[stormtracker]

1PM...we lose upstairs, but just slightly.   Still below freezing surface.  Precip still moderate

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Snowing in the area around 7am Monday with more precip moving NNW...decent slug too.  Hopefully the CAD holds

do we want this to cut for our next storm?

[bncho]

Heavy sleet at 195.

[stormtracker]

Monday evening, areas S and E of say Columbia/Gaithersburg/BWI go to rain, but barely.  

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

do we want this to cut for our next storm?

Who cares. Stfu. Why are you wanting to kill off a solid hit for a hope and a prayer from something else. 

[bncho]

Freezing Rain at 201.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Thump to dry slot basically

[stormtracker]

Looks like a 4-8 incher. 

[psuhoffman]

It’s a classic snow/sleet thump to dry slot imo. 

[bncho]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s a classic snow/sleet thump to dry slot imo. 

Fine by me. Now let's wait and see the 8th.

 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like a 4-8 incher. 

We take

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Who cares. Stfu. Why are you wanting to kill off a solid hit for a hope and a prayer from something else. 

I would sacrifice a decade of 3-5” storms for a 50/50 shot at a hecs.