January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

What does under-dispersion mean? Is it just what you describe where it’s too similar to the OP? I guess it isn’t making enough tweaks for each different outcome?

It means the ensembles don’t create enough spread to show all/most possibilities at range. iow, overconfident on one scenario. 

AI models also have this problem, which is being worked on. 

[psuhoffman]

Something to note, the extended products continue to delay the eventual morphology of the pattern into a canonical Nina look.  In two recent ninos they did this, wanting to morph the pattern into a canonical enso look that never happened. It’s very possible they are doing the same now.   
 

If we look where the ensembles leave us now day 15/16 it’s still a ways from getting to a Nina look. When this pattern does break down it’s likely through retrogression as the jet extension effects fade and it retracts. We actually would want pattern retrogression from this look. We would have at least another 1-2 weeks of a favorable window from here if this look were to go through retrogression.  That gets us almost to Feb!

The pattern will eventually morph/end obviously. But it’s setting in early January right at the start of our best snow climo. And I think it lasts at least 3 weeks before a total collapse. And I’m starting to like the over on that!  I could see some version of this lingering through much of our cold season, or at least enough to stack our chances of our first positive seasonal bust in a long time!  

[brooklynwx99]

this is honestly the KU progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place

[SnowenOutThere]

32 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Still feeing good. The 6z GFS is just one iteration, and hopefully a blip. Euro ens are nice

Why wouldn’t you be feeling good? The past 3 runs of the OP gfs have shown a good 4-6 inch snowstorm at least while the Euro showed an east coast HECS. Additionally the ens even support them, currently this is the best we shouldve felt in years!

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It means the ensembles don’t create enough spread to show all/most possibilities at range. iow, overconfident on one scenario. 

AI models also have this problem, which is being worked on. 

Thank you

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don’t think enough was made of that run last night. During the daytime that would’ve have garnered enough posts to shut this forum down. Ultimate cold smoke blizzard run just happened overnight. 

Yeah I came in here expecting to see all sorts of woofing this morning but was sadly disappointed.  

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, IronTy said:

Yeah I came in here expecting to see all sorts of woofing this morning but was sadly disappointed.  

Kuchera always lies but given that is falling when temps are like 10F you could probably 1.5x those results too. 

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera always lies but given that is falling when temps are like 10F you could probably 1.5x those results too. 

Or double...

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

I know very few people are interested in this period given the potential shown elsewhere but GEPS received the Jan. 4 threat last night and even the OPs have been showing something on that date on recent runs. Idk how this impacts downstream for the later, more HECS-y opportunities. 
 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera always lies but given that is falling when temps are like 10F you could probably 1.5x those results too. 

Combine the temps with the ideal pass of the mid and upper level lows and ratios would be well above 10-1.  Silly to worry about at that range but the at run wouldn’t be 10-1. 

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

That 00z Euro run was wild.  Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.

The temps are the weeniest part of that depiction.  Colder than Feb 2003.  Colder than the second storm in Jan 1987. Almost on par with the blizzard at the end of Jan 1966.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE you weren’t wrong about the inception of this blocking regime being a less common evolution. But when I went and looked I did find some examples, a few in the 60s and that 2006 one were very similar. It doesn’t matter how the heat bubble gets to the Greenland area so long as wave breaking takes over with the feedback loop we need to cut off the flow and trap it there with the mid latitude flow “blocked” under it.
 

We’ve seen some attempts at more canonical retrogression induced ridges fail when storms cut west and displaced the attempts at ridging instead of sliding under and reinforcing it.  I was skeptical but more so that we might see the SER linkage we saw in recent years and storms would cut into the ridge destructively interfering instead of under it to feed back into the cycle needed. 
 

I wonder as we continue to warm of this path to blocking might not become more common. A huge heat ridge migrating so far north that if we get a storm track under it we end up with the same end result as the retrograding Scandinavian heat ridge scenario. The end result on our pattern is the same if you get there. 

[TSSN+]

19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Yeah I came in here expecting to see all sorts of woofing this morning but was sadly disappointed.  

Idk maybe cause it’s 11 days away… 

[Buddy1987]

58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If you are banking on a HECS level event, then probably. Realistically could have 1 or 2 secs during this period then maybe the reality is our biggest storm happens when the pattern breaks down. At least that's 'normally' how it plays out.

Definitely not banking on a HECS. I just feel like a Great Lakes low or a weaker high pressure or a low track further to the west or northwest always become the culprit(s). Encouraging to see the scenarios with some decent agreement I suppose you could say this far out, minus the 6z gfs if you’re looking for the 2nd storm to overproduce. 

[psuhoffman]

Last thought from 30k feet. 
 

Thinking back on all recent blocking regimes it was almost always not the first threat we identified that ended up the snowstorm.  
 

2021 we missed several chances before that storm Jan31-Feb1 hit.  March 2018 we missed 3 storms and I made some huge dumpster fire meltdown post in the panic room then we got the snowstorm!  Jan 2016 we were tracking 2 threats that didn’t work out before the hecs. The block set in Dec 2010 and we didn’t get a mecs until late January and had to suffer a couple times bad first!  2009/10 was about the only time we hit every time a threat showed up!  Even 1996 the blocking set in a month before we got the epic week of snow!  We missed a mecs just to our north right before Xmas then there was a cutter in early January. 
 

Every blocking regime of this magnitude in my life did produce snow. Some were epic and some were just some snow. But it’s very likely we get at least a secs somewhere from this. History says that. SimplE probabilities.  But don’t be surprised if it’s not the first storm we identify from range.  Don’t over react if one or two threats don’t work out.  That’s often how we roll. Even in a good pattern. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE you weren’t wrong about the inception of this blocking regime being a less common evolution. But when I went and looked I did find some examples, a few in the 60s and that 2006 one were very similar. It doesn’t matter how the heat bubble gets to the Greenland area so long as wave breaking takes over with the feedback loop we need to cut off the flow and trap it there with the mid latitude flow “blocked” under it.
 

We’ve seen some attempts at more canonical retrogression induced ridges fail when storms cut west and displaced the attempts at ridging instead of sliding under and reinforcing it.  I was skeptical but more so that we might see the SER linkage we saw in recent years and storms would cut into the ridge destructively interfering instead of under it to feed back into the cycle needed. 
 

I wonder as we continue to warm of this path to blocking might not become more common. A huge heat ridge migrating so far north that if we get a storm track under it we end up with the same end result as the retrograding Scandinavian heat ridge scenario. The end result on our pattern is the same if you get there. 

I was mostly just skeptical that it would actually evolve into something sustained/significant. Initially on guidance it appeared the NAO would be modestly negative once the EPO block set up. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was mostly just skeptical that it would actually evolve into something sustained/significant. Initially on guidance it appeared the NAO would be modestly negative once the EPO block set up. 

I think the mean was an artifact of smoothing due to outliers. The couple times I peeked under the hood the members that did have blocking were pretty nuts about it.  But there were members that did the whole SER likage which lead to extreme cutters breaking down the ridge instead of cutting it off. 

[MillvilleWx]

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is honestly the KU progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place

This is TEXTBOOK right here. My goodness 

[brooklynwx99]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE you weren’t wrong about the inception of this blocking regime being a less common evolution. But when I went and looked I did find some examples, a few in the 60s and that 2006 one were very similar. It doesn’t matter how the heat bubble gets to the Greenland area so long as wave breaking takes over with the feedback loop we need to cut off the flow and trap it there with the mid latitude flow “blocked” under it.
 

We’ve seen some attempts at more canonical retrogression induced ridges fail when storms cut west and displaced the attempts at ridging instead of sliding under and reinforcing it.  I was skeptical but more so that we might see the SER linkage we saw in recent years and storms would cut into the ridge destructively interfering instead of under it to feed back into the cycle needed. 
 

I wonder as we continue to warm of this path to blocking might not become more common. A huge heat ridge migrating so far north that if we get a storm track under it we end up with the same end result as the retrograding Scandinavian heat ridge scenario. The end result on our pattern is the same if you get there. 

yup, it doesn’t really matter as long as the block is actually doing its job and… blocking stuff. the Atlantic is clogged up here. this isn’t some bootleg Greenland ridge, it’s a legit -NAO that’s trended stronger and more west based with time

[Kevin Reilly]

54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera always lies but given that is falling when temps are like 10F you could probably 1.5x those results too. 

Yea higher snow ratios and you double this amount and, in some cases, triple it; with the type of cold that is coming high ratio snow is on the table for sure. 

[bncho]

On 12/26/2024 at 8:29 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

I’m going to trust this with my life and blame you if it doesn’t happen

I'm starting to think the wheel isn't 100% stupid.

[mitchnick]

Icon sending the 6th south it appears.

[Heisy]

This isn’t bad for the end of the run. What could go wrong is a piece of the TPV drops down and phases with the shortwave bringing it N (like the 6z euro Ai did). We’ll see, still think a front ender makes sense for the 6th. Would be nice

GFS time


.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon sending the 6th south it appears.

The icon is well the icon. I wouldn’t put much stock in it. 

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon sending the 6th south it appears.

The Germans are pretty good at things but they still have some ways before being considered useful in numerical modeling. Has its moments, but not really trustworthy yet when looking at verification. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The Germans are pretty good at things but they still have some ways before being considered useful in numerical modeling. Has its moments, but not really trustworthy yet when looking at verification. 

Agreed, but it's better than your average ensemble member and has other support, so it's worth taking a look.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Agreed, but it's better than your average ensemble member and has other support, so it's worth taking a look.

I should have added this too. Doesn't look like it'll have a chance to go far enough north to ruin things even if it does try.

[WEATHER53]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z GFS ensembles further SW than the OP with Jan 6 storm threat. We have a good 50/50 low for this

Mongolian reload and that region has been consistently producing  for a month.

Now the examples need to get to within 5 days to see if a low is coming up from the south A style. The transfer/phase jobs rarely work here 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Mongolian reload and that region has been consistently producing  for a month.

Now the examples need to get to within 5 days to see if a low is coming up from the south A style. The transfer/phase jobs rarely work here 

 

Thats what was so beautiful about last nights Euro run. Old school Miller A bomb. 

[WEATHER53]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We’ve identified the threat for every major MECS level snowstorm that hit our area since 2009 past 10 days.  None snuck up on us. We saw the window of opportunity for every one at long range.
 

Dec 2009, Feb 2010x2, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, Jan 2016, March 2018. And we identified some that were really close misses like Boxing Day, Dec 2018, Dec 2020, Feb 2021. No one is saying what any day 10 run is showing is likely to happen. It isn’t. Even if we get a big snow it won’t happen exactly like a day 10 run.  But this is simply about threat identification at this range. And we can and have successfully done that over the last 15 years. 

They don’t sneak up on us. You are completely correct.  But they overforecast  many events that never come to fruition. That’s what brings criticism