January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[TSSN+]

Lost the one storm but gained another back with the 6th and it’s a 6-10” storm. I’d take it. 

[Fozz]

It’s definitely going to snow in early January, quite possibly with a low end KU, because I’ll be out of town from the 3rd to the 14th.

Lock it in.

[LeesburgWx]

Damnit Ji. You cost us a HECS on the 6z GFS because of your wishes about Jan 6th

[mitchnick]

6z Euro vs 0z. You can see better ridging north of the Great Lakes at 6z, likely caused by the stronger trough off the east coast, and a slightly weaker vort hitting the NW coast (that's the 1/6 system.) All of that would increase chances of a 6z Gfs scenario imho by pushing a slightly weaker system to the south of its cutter depiction on the Euro's 0z run. Plenty of time to change, and likely with each run until we're closer.

P.s. I don't think the fact the 1/6 system is shown coming in slightly north would make a difference due to stronger ridging north of the GL. Again, jmho.

[TSSN+]

Not sure what the complaints about. I’d trade in a d 11 fantasy storm for a day 7 fantasy storm lol

 

 

[MN Transplant]

That 00z Euro run was wild.  Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

That 00z Euro run was wild.  Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.

So wild it’ll probably be gone at 12z lol. Crossing fingers it can still be there. 

[CAPE]

The strongest signal for a snowstorm across 0z ensemble runs is the EPS for the 10th- and it is a strong signal for this range. A bit of a weaker signal on the 6z GEFS with low pressure more offshore compared to the 0z run.

The 6-7th storm has an initial low to our NW on the majority of members, with secondary development somewhere along the MA coast(Miller B). 

In a nutshell, not much has changed and it is still too early for details.

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

That 00z Euro run was wild.  Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.

Fluff factor / snow ratio more cold less liquid more snow. 

[Ji]

The strongest signal for a snowstorm across 0z ensemble runs is the EPS for the 10th- and it is a strong signal for this range. A bit of a weaker signal on the 6z GEFS with low pressure more offshore compared to the 0z run.
The 6-7th storm has an initial low to our NW on the majority of members, with secondary development somewhere along the MA coast(Miller . 
In a nutshell, not much has changed and it is still too early for details.

https://x.com/accurayno/status/1873349234919092734?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The strongest signal for a snowstorm across 0z ensemble runs is the EPS for the 10th- and it is a strong signal for this range. A bit of a weaker signal on the 6z GEFS with low pressure more offshore compared to the 0z run.

The 6-7th storm has an initial low to our NW on the majority of members, with secondary development somewhere along the MA coast(Miller B). 

In a nutshell, not much has changed and it is still too early for details.

I feel disappointment lurking man. I so hope I’m wrong.

[CAPE]

I mean, effing hell..

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The strongest signal for a snowstorm across 0z ensemble runs is the EPS for the 10th- and it is a strong signal for this range. A bit of a weaker signal on the 6z GEFS with low pressure more offshore compared to the 0z run.

The 6-7th storm has an initial low to our NW on the majority of members, with secondary development somewhere along the MA coast(Miller B). 

In a nutshell, not much has changed and it is still too early for details.

 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

https://x.com/accurayno/status/1873349234919092734?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

So you’re saying we need to thread the needle where we get plowable snow on the 6th and the HECS 3 days later?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mean, effing hell..

Wow!!! What a signal.  We’re going to see a lot of fun op runs the next few days methinks. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I feel disappointment lurking man. I so hope I’m wrong.

If you are banking on a HECS level event, then probably. Realistically could have 1 or 2 secs during this period then maybe the reality is our biggest storm happens when the pattern breaks down. At least that's 'normally' how it plays out.

[mappy]

Hey all, I know everyone is giddy about lots of possibilities the next two weeks, but let’s think twice before posting. Lot of off topic banter happening in here. Help the mods out and post in the correct threads please. 

[LeesburgWx]

Still feeing good. The 6z GFS is just one iteration, and hopefully a blip. Euro ens are nice

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro vs 0z. You can see better ridging north of the Great Lakes at 6z, likely caused by the stronger trough off the east coast, and a slightly weaker vort hitting the NW coast (that's the 1/6 system.) All of that would increase chances of a 6z Gfs scenario imho by pushing a slightly weaker system to the south of its cutter depiction on the Euro's 0z run. Plenty of time to change, and likely with each run until we're closer.

P.s. I don't think the fact the 1/6 system is shown coming in slightly north would make a difference due to stronger ridging north of the GL. Again, jmho.

There are so many variables it doesn’t necessarily have too. I’m sure there are permutations where we could get both. But everything is related. Every wave in the flow affects the ones after in some way.  So wishing for a different solution than the one that lead to a HECS 2 days later is very dangerous. It’s unpredictable what change in wave a does to wave b. But if I see a run that gives me 20” I don’t go getting greedy and wishing for changes lol. I guess I’m more conservative than Ji with my snow. 

BTW: great to see you posting again. Missed your insight. 

[RevWarReenactor]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

https://x.com/accurayno/status/1873349234919092734?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

I am rooting for Jan 6th storm. Looks less comlicated. We don't do complicated.

What if Jan 6th is a rainer and Jan 10th is still OTS? Followed by extreme cold and bare ground.

Lots of unhappy people.

[Terpeast]

The GFS ensembles has always had a weaker signal for Jan 9-10 than 6-7. The EPS is opposite, the latter being stronger than the first wave. 

I think the op 6z GFS went back to what its ensemble suite was showing the whole time, while the op Euro was showing one of the upper potential scenarios of the ensembles.

I usually lean on the Euro+EPS because it has been the better performing model suite based on recent verification scores in the last couple of months. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro vs 0z. You can see better ridging north of the Great Lakes at 6z, likely caused by the stronger trough off the east coast, and a slightly weaker vort hitting the NW coast (that's the 1/6 system.) All of that would increase chances of a 6z Gfs scenario imho by pushing a slightly weaker system to the south of its cutter depiction on the Euro's 0z run. Plenty of time to change, and likely with each run until we're closer.

P.s. I don't think the fact the 1/6 system is shown coming in slightly north would make a difference due to stronger ridging north of the GL. Again, jmho.

We in the game !!!!  Welcome back 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The GFS ensembles has always had a weaker signal for Jan 9-10 than 6-7. The EPS is opposite, the latter being stronger than the first wave. 

I think the op 6z GFS went back to what its ensemble suite was showing the whole time, while the op Euro was showing one of the upper potential scenarios of the ensembles.

I usually lean on the Euro+EPS because it has been the better performing model suite based on recent verification scores in the last couple of months. 

We haven’t had much to track around here but I keep an eye on multiple regions for skiing interests and the gfs has been a total train wreck anecdotally on almost all the storms I’ve tracked. Flipping around run to run and almost invariably eventually caving to a solution closer to the euro.  Btw the gefs still has an issue with under dispersion so if the op goes off on a tangent the ensembles almost always follow it and that makes them kinda useless for what they’re intended. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

That 00z Euro run was wild.  Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.

Yeah, I don’t think enough was made of that run last night. During the daytime that would’ve have garnered enough posts to shut this forum down. Ultimate cold smoke blizzard run just happened overnight. 

[Rhino16]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Btw the gefs still has an issue with under dispersion so if the op goes off on a tangent the ensembles almost always follow it and that makes them kinda useless for what their intended. 

What does under-dispersion mean? Is it just what you describe where it’s too similar to the OP? I guess it isn’t making enough tweaks for each different outcome?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

What does under-dispersion mean? Is it just what you describe where it’s too similar to the OP? I guess it isn’t making enough tweaks for each different outcome?

It means the ensembles don’t create enough spread to show all/most possibilities at range. iow, overconfident on one scenario. 

AI models also have this problem, which is being worked on. 

[psuhoffman]

Something to note, the extended products continue to delay the eventual morphology of the pattern into a canonical Nina look.  In two recent ninos they did this, wanting to morph the pattern into a canonical enso look that never happened. It’s very possible they are doing the same now.   
 

If we look where the ensembles leave us now day 15/16 it’s still a ways from getting to a Nina look. When this pattern does break down it’s likely through retrogression as the jet extension effects fade and it retracts. We actually would want pattern retrogression from this look. We would have at least another 1-2 weeks of a favorable window from here if this look were to go through retrogression.  That gets us almost to Feb!

The pattern will eventually morph/end obviously. But it’s setting in early January right at the start of our best snow climo. And I think it lasts at least 3 weeks before a total collapse. And I’m starting to like the over on that!  I could see some version of this lingering through much of our cold season, or at least enough to stack our chances of our first positive seasonal bust in a long time!  

[brooklynwx99]

this is honestly the KU progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place

[SnowenOutThere]

32 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Still feeing good. The 6z GFS is just one iteration, and hopefully a blip. Euro ens are nice

Why wouldn’t you be feeling good? The past 3 runs of the OP gfs have shown a good 4-6 inch snowstorm at least while the Euro showed an east coast HECS. Additionally the ens even support them, currently this is the best we shouldve felt in years!