poolz1 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Isn't that what we want to start seeing, though? Some really nice, even wacky solutions showing up in the deterministic and individual ensemble members out at longer range. Then of course hopefully hone in on a real one as it gets closer in time. I thought that was a problem last year, with all the drool-worthy looks for February in the extra-extended ensembles and such. It looked great on those plots, but we never really saw the "big, wild hits" show up, even from individual ensemble members. I think it was @Bob Chill who pointed that out, saying that while it looked great on those extended means, he wasn't too thrilled with what was "under the hood." Adreed. With as many op runs we see in a 24hr period I would think there would be a signal. Even if its scattershot. I remember the same thing last year. Beautiful h5 maps in the lr but we couldn't score even digital snow on the op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 23 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I know ops are just for entertainment purposes in the 10-15 but I do like to see potential on them....even in the LR. Yeah I still think about the 30" blizzard that one run of LR GFS gave me a for couple days ago. I did get snow tv and a coating. Close! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah I still think about the 30" blizzard that one run of LR GFS gave me a for couple days ago. I did get snow tv and a coating. Close! I don’t think it means much more, but I think this is the first truly wild Euro OP run of the year. Helps that it runs to 360 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don’t think it means much more, but I think this is the first truly wild Euro OP run of the year. Helps that it runs to 360 now. FWIW, despite the flak it gets these days, euro has been the best model this fall in terms of verification scores particularly the ensembles. Not saying the 12z op is correct about the HECS, but it’s a good sign that it’s even showing it as one possibility among a wide range of possibilities. We didn’t even see that last Feb before the good H5 looks collapsed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago I don't think it will happen this way, but Jan. 3 - 8 is a definite 5 day threat period from many sources. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I still think about the 30" blizzard that one run of LR GFS gave me a for couple days ago. I did get snow tv and a coating. Close! Just move on to the next op run. What are you new at this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don’t think it means much more, but I think this is the first truly wild Euro OP run of the year. Helps that it runs to 360 now. Does it though? Social media is already lighting up from that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago BamWX is screaming in delight about the new clickbait. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago The Euro AI just shows hit after hit after hit. I don’t have WxBell because I’m actually poor. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does it though? Social media is already lighting up from that run. It helps produce more wild results - don’t think that’s a good thing! Though some of us love our digital blue. 12 minutes ago, bncho said: The Euro AI just shows hit after hit after hit. I don’t have WxBell because I’m actually poor. The AI Euro hasn’t scored any coups from its parent but nice to see them on the same page with that threat window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Euro op is similar evolution to Jan 2000 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago The 12z GFS had a similar evolution as the Euro at h5, but because the sensible weather outcome was different(resulted in no pretty snow maps), it seems no one noticed. Lets see how the next few cycles of the op runs/ensembles go- this could be the beginning of an actual storm signal. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fantabulous? The word was “mint” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 44 minutes ago, bncho said: The Euro AI just shows hit after hit after hit. I don’t have WxBell because I’m actually poor. Man I'd love that. Clean pass to our south and cold smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago I want to cue the Jaws music for the 18z gfs. Somethings a brewin at 252 in the S Plains 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I want to cue the Jaws music for the 18z gfs. Somethings a brewin at 252 in the S Plains What’s brewing is a group trip to Texarkana for their blizzard 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: What’s brewing is a group trip to Texarkana for their blizzard Yep, not this run for us. Still think that wave is the one that locks in the 50/50 for a storm threat after the 4th or 5th. We are just rushing things along as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I want to cue the Jaws music for the 18z gfs. Somethings a brewin at 252 in the S Plains Its gonna cut. The NA is meh. Confluence is lacking. A bit of HP damming so maybe some coastal redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I want to cue the Jaws music for the 18z gfs. Somethings a brewin at 252 in the S Plains Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its gonna cut. The NA is meh. Confluence is lacking. A bit of HP damming so maybe some coastal redevelopment. Yepper, this might be setting up right after the 4th tho, not sure. Based on the general pattern progression at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Umm, let's toss this run shall we. Trof out west developing, ser forming late in the run. Must be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Umm, let's toss this run shall we. Trof out west developing, ser forming late in the run. Must be wrong Imagine if this supposed epic pattern in the long range is another head fake and we just flip to SER. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Rain It was Jaws, just for the wrong area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It was Jaws, just for the wrong area I like the way this man thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Imagine if this supposed epic pattern in the long range is another head fake and we just flip to SER. Sounds about right. I don’t believe we are going to get a good pattern for one second. I’ll believe when I see it happening. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Umm, let's toss this run shall we. Trof out west developing, ser forming late in the run. Must be wrong That's not a SER, its a transient h5 height rise out in front of a deep/ broad trough progressing eastward. Roll that forward a day or 2 with that HL look... 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, CAPE said: That's not a SER, its a transient h5 height rise out in front of a deep/ broad trough progressing eastward. Roll that forward a day or 2 with that HL look... GEFS are much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Is there any reason some transit ridging at 300+ hours is more reasonable than a HECS at the same time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, WxUSAF said: Is there any reason some transit ridging at 300+ hours is more reasonable than a HECS at the same time? yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Is there any reason some transit ridging at 300+ hours is more reasonable than a HECS at the same time? One is definitely more likely than the other. HECS are rare, crappy patterns are not lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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