January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

KU?

kocin/uccellini

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/docs/kocin-and-uccellini-2004.pdf

[Ji]

Jan 6 has shown thumper/cutter for days why the sudden surprise?

Because I thought it would be trending south by now

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Because I thought it would be trending south by now

Why did you think that?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why did you think that?

It has a big -NAO block over the top. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It has a big -NAO block over the top. 

Ah okay.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Because I thought it would be trending south by now

I would let that storm cut if 2-3 days later is a historical storm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I would say in the upper latitudes it's trending better for Jan 6th though on the GFS

https://ibb.co/rpfk5jg

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pissed off this is not improving

The little lights aren’t twinkling

 

 

[psuhoffman]

January 2016 both the gfs and euro keyed in on the hecs right at day 10. Then had it most runs from then on it. It is possible when it’s a well telleconnected major event to sniff of out at this range.  But I’d expect more shifts here because there are more NS waves in between now and the event than in 2016 so more chaos to resolve. 
 

@Ji the wave on the 6th will influence the wave most guidance thinks in the real hecs threat so be careful what you wish for.  Back in 2015 we had a similar kind of setup and everyone was rooting for the first wave to trend better and it did and we for like 4-7” across the DC area but lost the hecs threat 2 days after. I’ll gladly pass up a secs for a legit shot at a hecs. Those storms are so rare you roll the dice when a shot comes. 

[DDweatherman]

34 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

kocin/uccellini

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/docs/kocin-and-uccellini-2004.pdf

And boy would a euro depiction be a top KU index-er. Probably top 5.

[winter_warlock]

 No matter how u all look at it. January  is gonna be cold!! And very active. I gotta feeling alot of us are gonna make up for last few years in the snowfall depth  in January.   Looking like brutal cold coming     in a couple weeks

[Ji]

January 2016 both the gfs and euro keyed in on the hecs right at day 10. Then had it most runs from then on it. It is possible when it’s a well telleconnected major event to sniff of out at this range.  But I’d expect more shifts here because there are more NS waves in between now and the event than in 2016 so more chaos to resolve. 
 
[mention=514]Ji[/mention] the wave on the 6th will influence the wave most guidance thinks in the real hecs threat so be careful what you wish for.  Back in 2015 we had a similar kind of setup and everyone was rooting for the first wave to trend better and it did and we for like 4-7” across the DC area but lost the hecs threat 2 days after. I’ll gladly pass up a secs for a legit shot at a hecs. Those storms are so rare you roll the dice when a shot comes. 

I don’t understand how a 100 mile south shift could affect the hecs the euro had. Just want to see a thump to dry slot instead of zr to dry slot lol

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

January 2016 both the gfs and euro keyed in on the hecs right at day 10. Then had it most runs from then on it. It is possible when it’s a well telleconnected major event to sniff of out at this range.  But I’d expect more shifts here because there are more NS waves in between now and the event than in 2016 so more chaos to resolve. 
 

@Ji the wave on the 6th will influence the wave most guidance thinks in the real hecs threat so be careful what you wish for.  Back in 2015 we had a similar kind of setup and everyone was rooting for the first wave to trend better and it did and we for like 4-7” across the DC area but lost the hecs threat 2 days after. I’ll gladly pass up a secs for a legit shot at a hecs. Those storms are so rare you roll the dice when a shot comes. 

I remember the models were pretty spot on  at least a week out for the jan 2016 storm...   and ill definitely  pass  up the one on the 6th for a biggie later !!

[psuhoffman]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z GFS ensembles further SW than the OP with Jan 6 storm threat. We have a good 50/50 low for this

[Ji]

Told you not to sleep on the winters after a moderate Nino. What if this is out 94/95 to 95-96 lol

[psuhoffman]

[Ji]

May p27 rot in hell

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Told you not to sleep on the winters after a moderate Nino. What if this is out 94/95 to 95-96 lol

I didn’t say you were crazy. I acknowledged I saw why some were more optimistic. I didn’t go that way because in the fall the PDO was hanging at -3!  All the examples of weak cold enso years with a severely negative PDO were bad.  And there were no examples where a PDO was that negative in late fall and rose to around -1 or higher which was the threshold to open the door to a better result. So I dismissed that idea.  
 

But here we are. The PDO has skyrocketed and is heading towards neutral!  So it’s very legitimate now. I said in my winter forecast the one thing that could cause a huge bust was if the PDO went through a motor phase shift heading into winter. But I said I thought that was very unlikely. It happened. 
 

It’s still a weak cold enso. History isn’t great. But there are some good examples now in the analogs if I was to redo them for the current PDO state.  Hopefully we can take advantage. We are definitely due for something like this.  Way past due. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

May p27 rot in hell

The snowless camp is now the minority. 

[Deck Pic]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t say you were crazy. I acknowledged I saw why some were more optimistic. I didn’t go that way because in the fall the PDO was hanging at -3!  All the examples of weak cold enso years with a severely negative PDO were bad.  And there were no examples where a PDO was that negative in late fall and rose to around -1 or higher which was the threshold to open the door to a better result. So I dismissed that idea.  
 

But here we are. The PDO has skyrocketed and is heading towards neutral!  So it’s very legitimate now. I said in my winter forecast the one thing that could cause a huge bust was if the PDO went through a motor phase shift heading into winter. But I said I thought that was very unlikely. It happened. 
 

It’s still a weak cold enso. History isn’t great. But there are some good examples now in the analogs if I was to redo them for the current PDO state.  Hopefully we can take advantage. We are definitely due for something like this.  Way past due. 

Same...my outlook was predicated on a moderate to sharply negative PDO.  Which limited the ceiling

[psuhoffman]

GEPS has the threat also 

probs show 70% of 3”+ for DC. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Same...my outlook was predicated on a moderate to sharply negative PDO.  Which limited the ceiling

All you can do is play the odds. Sometimes an outlier solution happens. 

[bncho]

Look at the EPS when extended to 360hrs...
Snow is for DC.

50/50 members show a trace or more of snow (100%)
41/50 members show 1+ inches of snow (82%)
24/50 members show 3+ inches (48%)
13/50 members show 6+ inches (26%)
7/50 members show 12+ inches (14%)
4/50 members show 24+ inches (8%)

Wild times are ahead. I'd take a 1 in 12 chance for 24 inches by Jan 13.

[psuhoffman]

Bottom line…you won’t ever see a better setup at this range. You won’t see a better signal for a day 10 threat across guidance supported by all the major long wave pattern drivers and the surface depictions as this.  Doesn’t guarantee anything. A long ways to go. But we have as good a shot at a major snowstorm around Day 10 as we could hope for.  It’s good enough it has me looking at this crap at 2am when I travel to revelstoke tomorrow!
 

 I wasn’t kidding when I said the guidance is showing the best cold enso pattern since 1996. I don’t think it’s even close.  Everything we need from a major pattern standpoint is there we juts have to get lucky with the wave timing.  And we could have a healthy window with multiple chances to get the hit we want.  

Good night and good luck to us all!  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a warm Winter. It was interesting when the Southern Hemisphere AAO hit -5 and had a record breaking streak of 3 weeks of -AAO from Aug-Sept. That S. Hemisphere factor rolled forward to a -AO Dec/Jan at a 0.35 correlation. Sometimes the methods just become too stale in a changing system.. after 8 years of the same, indexes like the PDO become a strong state, but all they are doing is reflecting the atmospheric conditions. They hit on consistency really hard, but when change comes something like all the roll forward N. Hemisphere indexes will miss it. They will be 7/7, until they are 7/8. That's why it's sometimes important to go beyond the very basic area of atmospheric circulation that is occurring in a closed system (northern hemisphere). Changes in the Sun this year could also possibly be a factor of why it went colder, I was talking earlier in the year about how we had a -H5 over Greenland 9 times this year, when we saw that pattern something like a total of 3 times in the last 4 years.

[yohan]

Just trying to understand why post long range or even medium ranges that later just vanish to mid Atlantic reason. I understand these are computer models that have potentials. Sometimes, I see here of whishcasting that never pans out. Yea this maybe a banter comment here, but I watch the tread when everyone was hoping Jan 5/6 event that seems to have just disappear and now we are looking more than two weeks for another event possible.

[bncho]

Just now, yohan said:

Just trying to understand why post long range or even medium ranges that later just vanish to mid Atlantic reason. I understand these are computer models that have potentials. Sometimes, I see here of whishcasting that never pans out. Yea this maybe a banter comment here, but I watch the tread when everyone was hoping Jan 5/6 event that seems to have just disappear and now we are looking more than two weeks for another event possible.

We watch storm signals. The two purposes of the OP runs at long range is to see if there's a storm signal that matches up with the ensembles, and too keep the weenies happy. Jan 5-6 was highlighted as a possibility a few days ago but it wasn't the big bad threat. It seemed okay then, seems unlikely now, that's just how things trend.
 

The big bad threat we're watching is Jan 7-10 (which is not more than two weeks out, it's more like 10-12 days out). It seems primed to do something. The OPs, while unlikely to come true, are keying in on what the ensembles are showing. Guidance has never looked this good in a while. 

At the end of the day, we can't accurately predict much from this range.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, yohan said:

Just trying to understand why post long range or even medium ranges that later just vanish to mid Atlantic reason. I understand these are computer models that have potentials. Sometimes, I see here of whishcasting that never pans out. Yea this maybe a banter comment here, but I watch the tread when everyone was hoping Jan 5/6 event that seems to have just disappear and now we are looking more than two weeks for another event possible.

We’ve identified the threat for every major MECS level snowstorm that hit our area since 2009 past 10 days.  None snuck up on us. We saw the window of opportunity for every one at long range.
 

Dec 2009, Feb 2010x2, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, Jan 2016, March 2018. And we identified some that were really close misses like Boxing Day, Dec 2018, Dec 2020, Feb 2021. No one is saying what any day 10 run is showing is likely to happen. It isn’t. Even if we get a big snow it won’t happen exactly like a day 10 run.  But this is simply about threat identification at this range. And we can and have successfully done that over the last 15 years. 

[Ji]

Gfs looks very different for Jan 6 lol. Starts as snow