January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC would have probably been a nice system with that kicker post 240. Just timing diffs and deciding which sw to phasebeyween guidance families. Gonna be a fun couple of weeks.

I'm feeling a 2-4" and a bigger 6-12" from this pattern.

[clskinsfan]

Just remember the GGem called this first. Frikin beast!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Somebody broke the gfs. Don't see this everyday 

 

[clskinsfan]

Exciting time to be a weather weenie. And the weenies like me might still end up with nothing. 

[Ji]

Remember guys, when we saw a great pattern modeled for Feb 2024, we did not actually see any snowstorms on the op models at this range. We do now. One step closer.

Because we saw it 3 weeks out and it dissolved as we got to 2 weeks

[LeesburgWx]

Who’s staying up for the euro?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Who’s staying up for the euro?

I will. Hbu?

[stormtracker]

Yall really thought a 180+ storm would hold?  

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yall really thought a 180+ storm would hold?  

Yes.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I like the pattern. GFS really went stronger -NAO this run. It's consistent - neg NAO over the top, +PNA, -EPO.. these are consistencies that aren't really going to change a lot between now and verification. The only thing to tweak is timing of waves, but for the 2nd day in row, it looks like an active jet during the cold time.

It's not like the last few years where we have a -PNA or +EPO and medium/long range models just don't estimate the pattern correctly downstream (too cold). It has upper latitude support. I think the only question is if it will remain dry or become wet. 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 1994 

I think that’s the one from 94 where 22F at onset and not one flake but lots of sleet and freezing rain 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Week 3-4, the CPC went with below normal temps and above normal precip, getting near the coldest time of the year. 

[bncho]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Week 3-4, the CPC went with below normal temps and above normal precip, getting near the coldest time of the year. 

The precip colors look like barf.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think that’s the one from 94 where 22F at insetvand not one flake but lots of sleet and freezing rain 

There were two storms like that in 94.  One was in January. From DC north got some snow at the outset but not much, maybe an inch.  Was like 18-20 at the start but quickly transitioned to sleet then freezing rain and we got 1-2” of freezing rain.  Then it was crazy cold the week after. Roads were frozen solid.  Week ended with a little 1-3” clipper then warmed up.

 

The Feb storm was pure sleep the whole storm start to finish.  I think some snow might have mixed in north of 70 in MD.  Was about 4” of sleet where I was in northern VA.  

 

[bncho]

Euro shows a cutter. I condemn it and it shall be shunned to hell.

(fuck)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Usually ice storms occur in -EPO patterns. -EPO and +NAO. The pattern occurring is -NAO/+PNA dominate, which in January is usually snow or miss (at least DC north). 

[DarkSharkWX]

[Ji]

Euro with a bit of snow on the 4th

[bncho]

WxBell is acting weird so it only lets me go from 252 to 294...
BUT...
 

[bncho]

Euro getting HECS-y

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro getting HECS-y

Dang the Euro comes out fast now! And dang to that map too. Welp...they all have a general idea...which is all we can ask for at this range 

[coastal front]

Every model finds a way to get to roughly the same outcome differently. Talk about not needing to thread the needle in a pattern like that. Incredible. 

[bncho]

That Euro run might be more BECS-y though. 12-36 inches from Texas to Maine.

[Ji]

Pissed off this is not improving

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro getting HECS-y

Cutter my ass bruh

[Ji]

Cutter my ass bruh

The Jan 6 bro

[coastal front]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Pissed off this is not improving

Gfs sheared it out. Let’s split the difference and hit both storms! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The Jan 6 bro

Jan 6 has shown thumper/cutter for days why the sudden surprise?

[Ruin]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

euro has a K/U

KU?

[Ruin]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cutter my ass bruh

Im so damn tired of cutters shouldnt the cold air suppress it to the south