January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[bncho]

GFS getting HECS-y.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Looks 2 part?  SLP is down in GA at 240

It’s a nice, long-duration event. DC filtering with mix line at 246 while western spots do well

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Looks 2 part?  SLP is down in GA at 240

Just like 18z gefs

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Looks 2 part?  SLP is down in GA at 240

It’s pulling off the phase instead of having the piece of what I assume is the polar vortex kick it out to sea

[Solution Man]

White Smoke 246

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

It’s pulling off the phase instead of having the piece of what I assume is the polar vortex kick it out to sea

Triple shot

[LeesburgWx]

GUYS

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

It’s pulling off the phase instead of having the piece of what I assume is the polar vortex kick it out to sea

Sadly we barely miss the best part of round two as the secondary bombs out a little too far north 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

GUYS

FOLKS

[yoda]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Sadly we barely miss the best part of round two as the secondary bombs out a little too far north 

The h5 pass beneath us was pretty money though 

[NorthArlington101]

Widespread 8-12”. We take. Maybe I can fly out a day late? 

 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Widespread 8-12”. We take. Maybe I can fly out a day late? 

 

Storm signal? LOL

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

GUYS

Flirting with 'folks' territory if we can get this under 6 days

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, yoda said:

The h5 pass beneath us was pretty money though 

Oh the whole presentation was lovely synoptically, just needed the secondary to develop a tiny bit quicker to truly get some insane totals. Luckily we have all the time in the world for it to trend better 

[bncho]

Kuchera ratio is a little more robust on snow.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Oh the whole presentation was lovely synoptically, just needed the secondary to develop a tiny bit quicker to truly get some insane totals. Luckily we have all the time in the world for it to trend better 

...or it could disappear.

 

[Terpeast]

Nice consecutive runs by the gfs. If the other models pick it up, too, they could be sniffing something early. 

[T. August]

We got this thing inside 240 at least. It moved up 6-12 hours.

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. All of the big ones have been modelled out this far. There is little doubt in my mind that we are going to get obliterated. The only question is when. Before or after the relaxation. This pattern is one of the best in the 55 years of my life. Where the fuck is Chill? He should be losing his god damn mind right now. And Ji should be curled up in a corner somewhere...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Eye spy a clipper dropping into the flow at 276

[Terpeast]

Remember guys, when we saw a great pattern modeled for Feb 2024, we did not actually see any snowstorms on the op models at this range. We do now. One step closer.

[bncho]

Hopefully we can see the storm on the 6z GFS and 00z Euro.

Then we can start talking.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Remember guys, when we saw a great pattern modeled for Feb 2024, we did not actually see any snowstorms on the op models at this range. We are now. One step closer.

We are WAY better synoptically now though. IF IT IS real

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Remember guys, when we saw a great pattern modeled for Feb 2024, we did not actually see any snowstorms on the op models at this range. We are now. One step closer.

"One small step for snow, one giant leap for a snowstorm."

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Eye spy a clipper dropping into the flow at 276

At 300hrs it's trying to flirt with southern stream energy in the gulf.

[LeesburgWx]

How do the winds look? 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Eye spy a clipper dropping into the flow at 276

nothing comes of it though

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Hopefully we can see the storm on the 6z GFS and 00z Euro.

Then we can start talking.

CMC wanted to do something but kicker on the heels of the shortwave kept it from amplifying and kept it S and E

[bncho]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

nothing comes of it though

It flirted with the southern stream and is now riding up the coast at 312.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC would have probably been a nice system with that kicker post 240. Just timing diffs and deciding which sw to phase between guidance families. Gonna be a fun couple of weeks.