January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[frd]

 

 

Great thread on X by Ryan and always pretty images 

 

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1873140721076867134

 

Seems like 3 arctic shots are in the cards. The gift that keeps giving. 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Just for you, even though I’m 1000% rooting against ya’ll for the 7th-14th and won’t lie about it!

 

 

That’s really good for this range 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just got back from being stuck on I-95 for 6 hours. What an epic run of the GFS. Wow.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That’s really good for this range 

only 4 would cause me to strongly reconsider canceling my flight out on the 7th

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just got back from being stuck on I-95 for 6 hours. What an epic run of the GFS. Wow.

It took me almost 8 hours to get from dc to ny yesterday…wtf is going on??!! But yes epic run. 

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Just for you, even though I’m 1000% rooting against ya’ll for the 7th-14th and won’t lie about it!

 

 

13/30 runs show 3+ inches (43%)
9/30 runs show 6+ inches (30%)
It might be an all or nothing situation.

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Just for you, even though I’m 1000% rooting against ya’ll for the 7th-14th and won’t lie about it!

 

 

Terrible.

I get it, but even when I left I didn't root against the forum.  We'll save some for you when you get back.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

13/30 runs show 3+ inches (43%)
9/30 runs show 6+ inches (30%)
It might be an all or nothing situation.

The median situation is still zero, FWIW. 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

2016 mixed for me. Feb 2014 I had 18” but a good amount of slop. 

That’s weird that you mixed in 2016 and I didn’t considering I was east of you then.

2014 was a weird storm that I don’t consider in the same tier. I dryslotted for hours and it melted like crazy, then I got sleet before a brief change back to snow. But metro areas had hardly any snow on the ground by the end of the day while areas like PSU had a legit HECS and got around 2 feet.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The median situation is still zero, FWIW. 

I actually think the medan is 1-3".

 

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That’s weird that you mixed in 2016 and I didn’t considering I was east of you then.

2014 was a weird storm that I don’t consider in the same tier. I dryslotted for hours and it melted like crazy, then I got sleet before a brief change back to snow. But metro areas had hardly any snow on the ground by the end of the day while areas like PSU had a legit HECS and got around 2 feet.

Yeah, 2014 was a big disappointment inside the DC beltway.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah, 2014 was a big disappointment inside the DC beltway.

IIRC, the dryslot killed things south of US 50. Damascus had 24" but Takoma Park had only 5".

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, the dryslot killed things south of US 50. Damascus had 24" but Takoma Park had only 5".

I recall petworth dc to takoma park getting around 10 inches in that one with some mixing/dryslot. 

[NorthArlington101]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

I actually think the medan is 1-3".

 

Yeah, I’m being a jerk. It’s 2-3” for the whole 16 days. But 0” for each 24hrs individually, if that makes sense. Ens haven’t quite picked a day yet between the 6th and 10th

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Terrible.

I get it, but even when I left I didn't root against the forum.  We'll save some for you when you get back.

Hey if it were to happen that way, it would be cold enough for it to stick around 

[Solution Man]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The median situation is still zero, FWIW. 

[wasnow215]

Some really weird posts the last hour lol. How does a person root against other people's snow? So strange.

[yoda]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Some really weird posts the last hour lol. How does a person root against other people's snow? So strange.

When they are out of town

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

When they are out of town

Ohhhhh...got it lol

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

When they are out of town

I mean I would never root against snow as I love the happiness it’s brings to this group, but damn it if I’m still not losing my mind over missing the epic February week of 2010. Me standing in line with the family for “It’s a Small World” scrolling through the forums, people losing their shit in here, and I’m in DFW. Not Dallas Fort Worth, but Disney Fucking World! Ok. Anyway—let’s gets it done before my cruise on 1/18. 

[Weather Will]

For what a global is worth at Day 11 plus, WB AI EURO is a southern slider.  Blend the GFS and AI,  we all get slammed.  At this point, it is noteworthy that they both have a storm.

[Ruin]

Does a happy dance 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Hooooollyyyyy sheeeeetttt 0z probably will have a high there instead though lol. Hopefully not. Let’s string together some consistency. 

It’s really close synoptically to 96. 

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Accumulation maps are kinda underwhelming tho.  Weird. 

It tracks slightly inside where DC wants it. But what a setup. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Imma just go ahead and send out the call for the band to get back together after Jan 1.  Everybody's still in holiday mode and we just can't know what happens after the 1st.   But it's almost time for high times and misdemeanors up in this mfer.  Starting to feel it.  

Is the bus still in one piece?

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s really close synoptically to 96.

It tracks slightly inside where DC wants it. But what a setup. 

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I recall petworth dc to takoma park getting around 10 inches in that one with some mixing/dryslot. 

Yeah, it melted during the dry slot. I remember looking at the forum and people frolicking in continuing snowfall to the north while we mixed and melted. I was in tkpk at the time.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

 

Which one is it?  Historic cold outbursts of continued warmth?  If we have both, there will be a tendency for greater temp gradients and a more active STJ.  This could lead to snowier outcomes.  

Please tell me you’re just pretending to be this confused. We still get cold snaps. The planet hasn’t warmed so much that there isn’t still damn cold air in winter somewhere in the arctic and once in a blue moon if something displaces that air into the mid latitudes it will still get cold. But record heat is outnumbering cold 3-1. We are spending way more time above avg than below. But the system is chaotic with short term variance within the long term trend. And yes there is evidence we are getting bigger snowstorms when they happen but they are starting to happen so much more infrequently that it’s still a bad trade off.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I remember this one.   I think it was in 94.   I had about 2" of sleet

Feb 1994 

[Eskimo Joe]

From @wxmvpete

 

 

[87storms]

The only problem with the hh gfs is that the hecs is happening in the middle of the week, which has proven to be nearly impossible.