January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

the latest WB EPS weeklies continue to keep it below normal

Maybe we get relaxations that pound us numerous times this winter. Possible very fun times coming. And the cold would help whatever falls stick around for weeks. 

[Heisy]

Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain. 

I think it looks fine verbatim anyway, close enough





.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, frd said:

What a drastic change. Several ongoing elements such as the SSWE , - NAM state, favorable MJO, and Changes in the PDO. 

I have heard some mets talking about the cold transitioning to the West by late Jan.  

Weeklies show different outcome. Ah...the love of weather! 

It’s almost like seasonal forecasting is basically a crapshoot!

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I think it looks fine verbatim anyway, close enough





.

Looks like a sloppy 2" of snow and some sleet and ice.

[Solution Man]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A little smaller please

Love to get you going, you are almost prime time. Just a few more days.

[Deck Pic]

9 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Thank you for this.  I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore.  But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57,  71-77, 89-94 to name a few.   I try to look at it as a positive.  If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing,  

Since the HECS in 2015-16, here are my winters here in DC proper - my avg is around 16".

It does in fact snow here, but there are definite duds too.  This should actually encourage people tho tbh.  Plus a bunch of my <1" storms were 2-4"+ outside the beltway.  We have mix, sticking, temp issues all the time.  

2016-17 - 5.0"

1/7: 1.0"

1/30: 1.0"

3/13-14: 3.0"

2017-18 - 9.75"

12/9 - 2.25”

12/15 - 0.25”

12/30 - 0.25"

1/4 - 0.75"

1/17 - 0.5"

2/17 - 1.0"

3/6 - 0.25"

3/21 - 4.5"

2018-19 - 18.75"

11/15/2018:  2.0"

1/12-13/2019: 11.0”

1/17-18/2019: 0.5”

2/1/19: 1.25"

2/10/19: 0.5"

2/20/19: 3.25"

3/1/19: 0.25”

2019-20 - 0.25" - yikes

1/7: 0.25”

2020-21 - 6.5"

12/16: 1.0"

1/25: 0.25”

1/31 - 2/2: 3.5" 

2/7: 0.75"

2/10-11: 0.5"

2/18: 0.5"

2021-22 - 14.5"

1/3 - 7.5"

1/7 - 2.5"

1/16 - 2.5”

1/28-29 - 0.5”

3/12 - 1.5”

2022-23 - 0.5" - yikes

2/1/23 - 0.5"

2023-24 - 8.0"

1/15-16: 4.0"

1/19: 3.75"

2/17: 0.25"

 

 

[wxdude64]

Yes^^ YIKES to 22/23

[yoda]

HH GFS says no to the 4th... 6th looks cuttery at 192...

[stormtracker]

OP GFS still some shit for the 6th likely, but still encouraged by the ensembles and the fact that it has precip in the area.  Also...190+ hours away.  Still no need to fuss about particulars at this point.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

HH GFS says no to the 4th... 6th looks cuttery at 192...

It cuts

[poolz1]

Its the one after the one after.

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It cuts

Kinda looks like there might be a wave that’ll run up the boundary afterwards.

Edit: My model prediction abilities suck.

[yoda]

That's a ton of energy out west being dumped at 228 on h5...

[TSSN+]

I like the odds for the 6th storm to produce something. That’s a pretty significant south shift in one run.

 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

That's a ton of energy out west being dumped at 228 on h5...

If this was 100 hour sooner, it would be a FOLKS!

Watch

[stormtracker]

Dear GOD.

If this was 150 hours out, it would for sure be a  FOLKS....

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Dear GOD.

If this was 150 hours out, it would for sure be a  FOLKS....

Hopefully it soon will be, followed by 0hrs out with snow puking over us. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Dear GOD.

If this was 150 hours out, it would for sure be a  FOLKS....

This would be jaws worthy 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this was 100 hour sooner, it would be a FOLKS!

Watch

*JAWS WATCH* issued

[SnowenOutThere]

Legendary run incoming 

[stormtracker]

I would sell my children's kidneys for the GFS at 267+

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Legendary run incoming 

Hooooollyyyyy sheeeeetttt 0z probably will have a high there instead though lol. Hopefully not. Let’s string together some consistency. 

[poolz1]

We should be seeing eye candy like this with the advertised pattern.  About time.

[stormtracker]

Accumulation maps are kinda underwhelming tho.  Weird. 

[TSSN+]

I’m going to go into a medically induced coma till Jan 6th. Hope to wake up to winter storm watches for 20-30” and blizzards conditions. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Accumulation maps are kinda underwhelming tho.  Weird. 

The heaviest precip stays connected with the primary too long 

[bncho]

That's cold sleet. Sleet at 20-25 degrees.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Accumulation maps are kinda underwhelming tho.  Weird. 

I mean who cares about accumulation maps at hour 200+ lol. Just want to see the storm not being suppressed to Cuba or cutting to Chicago. 

[Conway7305]

Really nice to see a big storm finally show up on OP. Ensembles should be entertaining. 

[WxUSAF]

Yes I know it's a D11 sounding, but praise JesusAllahBuddah this is glorious