January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, would much rather have a series of light to moderate events that doesn't wash the blocking away, in lieu of one big hit that melts off in 3 days.

Eh, I like big dog hunting.  I've already completely forgotten about the light/moderate events that happened less than a year ago.

[87storms]

16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Eh, I like big dog hunting.  I've already completely forgotten about the light/moderate events that happened less than a year ago.

An ideal winter are light events in December and March with a MECS+ and 2 SECS, in any order, in January/February.

[bncho]

The pattern looks really good.

I think the next few days might play out like this.
Dec 22-23: cold and dry
Dec 24-27: moderation
Dec 28-Jan 1: brief warmup (no torch)
Jan 2-3: 1st shot of cool air (not arctic by any means, -3 to -5 below average)
Jan 4: brief warm up
Jan 5 and onwards: colder and possibly snowier

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, would much rather have a series of light to moderate events that doesn't wash the blocking away, in lieu of one big hit that melts off in 3 days.

Do you think we're in any position whatsoever to be picky?

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Exactly. Thus posting snow maps is even more useless than normal.

And yet folks will do it and I just don't understand why even from the weeniest perspective!

[bncho]

NOAA goes above average for January. It should be noted that it’s with quite little confidence.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet folks will do it and I just don't understand why even from the weeniest perspective!

Yup. They’ll still weeniegasm when they see one EPS control run that shows 30 inches for our area.

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Eh, I like big dog hunting.  I've already completely forgotten about the light/moderate events that happened less than a year ago.

The advantage to several events is that we won't have Ji complaining for years because it was a wasted storm.

[psuhoffman]

Chuck pointed it out yesterday, I love seeing the cold anomalies centered in the TN valley. That’s our big snowstorm loading pattern look!  

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The advantage to several events is that we won't have Ji complaining for years because it was a wasted storm.

I rather like the moderate events. Sometimes they occur in a colder period where we can get a few, and the rare 'snow on snow'. That happened in Jan 22, and 2 of the 3 events were 8"+ for some.  Even last year as brief as our actual winter was, we had 2 light/moderate snow events within 10 days and it stayed cold so some snow was still otg when the next one hit. Maybe not memorable years later but enjoyable at the time.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Chuck pointed it out yesterday, I love seeing the cold anomalies centered in the TN valley. That’s our big snowstorm loading pattern look!  

That plus this-

[NorthArlington101]

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

 

[poolz1]

969 over ACY with blizzard conditions!  Sign me up.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

969 over ACY with blizzard conditions!  Sign me up.

Just 50 miles further east 

[TSSN+]

46 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

 

Alex, I’ll take; things that won’t ever happen for 2000 please? 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Alex, I’ll take; things that won’t ever happen for 2000 please? 

Only 52 more cycles until the event kicks off.

Respectable signal on the ens for this distance. Fingers crossed!

[brooklynwx99]

this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only 52 more cycles until the event kicks off.

Respectable signal on the ens for this distance. Fingers crossed!

this is also really nice. love the confluence 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is also really nice. love the confluence 

yep… I really want this one. Going to be annoying and unabashed in the fact that I need this pattern to deliver early before I’d head out of town on the 7th. Jan 4-6 seems like a legit threat window. Can reload after that for a week and cook through the rest of the season. 

[stormtracker]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

All of the hits east or south are for the post New Year weekend period. About five of 50 members so far.  I will be watching for trends. (WB 0Z EPS).

 

 

Just be careful dude.  The error rate on 300+ hours out is 100%.   I'd focus more on the 290 hour period. 

[WxUSAF]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th

I like the broad trough over the CONUS. Just give me moisture attacking north into established cold air.

[Ralph Wiggum]

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th

Fantabulous? 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

 

Can somebody give me the crack that the Euro is on? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th

I tend to agree with this. Trof axis needs to continue to retrograde west. Thr first potential period here has the feel of either Miller b or just offshore. Im aware what the euro op is showing. Go with ens means at this range guys.

[Interstate]

The Miller A tuck job

[87storms]

Fantasy range, chaos and string theory aside, I thought the 0z euro and gfs Ops were starting to show hints of an ideal pattern in early Jan.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is so loaded. personally I think the larger threat is after the 5th

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

 

 

Does this post break the record for the number of different emoji reactions?  It's like an ensemble spread! 

 

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only 52 more cycles until the event kicks off.

Respectable signal on the ens for this distance. Fingers crossed!

 

[poolz1]

54 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Fantasy range, chaos and string theory aside, I thought the 0z euro and gfs Ops were starting to show hints of an ideal pattern in early Jan.

I know ops are just for entertainment purposes in the 10-15 but I do like to see potential on them....even in the LR.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, poolz1 said:

I know ops are just for entertainment purposes in the 10-15 but I do like to see potential on them....even in the LR.  

Isn't that what we want to start seeing, though?  Some really nice, even wacky solutions showing up in the deterministic and individual ensemble members out at longer range.  Then of course hopefully hone in on a real one as it gets closer in time.  I thought that was a problem last year, with all the drool-worthy looks for February in the extra-extended ensembles and such.  It looked great on those plots, but we never really saw the "big, wild hits" show up, even from individual ensemble members.  I think it was @Bob Chill who pointed that out, saying that while it looked great on those extended means, he wasn't too thrilled with what was "under the hood."