January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

2-4" out of Jan 4-5 would be such a bonus.

I think that's workable if things go our way. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I think that's workable if things go our way. 

CMC pops the coastal but not in a good spot for us. Plenty of time for things to push our way, though, was a trend in the right direction in general.

[stormy]

The AO tanking to -3.00 to -4.00 is classic for historical severe patterns.  09 - 10 it tanked to -3.41 with an NAO -.1.10. The PDO was -.50   The AO is almost always the deciding factor.

77-78 found the AO tanking to -3.01 with an NAO of -.12. The PDO was +.50.

[stormtracker]

But anyway, I don't think I've ever seen so many mets on board for such a good pattern in a long long time.  I hope this thing produces yall. 

[TSSN+]

I swear if it get vodka cold and it doesn’t snow at all lol. 
 

 

[stormy]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I swear if it get vodka cold and it doesn’t snow at all lol. 
 

 

That can happen east of the mountains. 76 - 77 was possibly the coldest winter in 200 years but was often suppression city .

The AO was -2.07 in December of 76,  -3.76 in January of 77 and -2.01 for February 77  Read all about it:    https://www.secretsoftheeasternshore.com/eastern-shore-deep-freeze/

The 1976–77 Winter in the Contiguous United States in Comparison with Past Records in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 106 Issue 10 (1978)

 

[87storms]

 
OMG all of these index forecasts keep looking better every day, crazy !!!   
 

 
 

 
 

 

Yea, there’s no question about it, the teleconnections are primo. Saw a post online yesterday about the QBO (the concept) and it appears to be favorable as well. I haven’t dug into that topic much, but it seems like an important marker for cold air making it to the surface and/or at least for a better chance at the teleconnections you listed.

[TSSN+]

That’s brutal 

 

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

That can happen east of the mountains. 76 - 77 was possibly the coldest winter in 200 years but was often suppression city .

The AO was -2.07 in December of 76,  -3.76 in January of 77 and -2.01 for February 77  Read all about it:    https://www.secretsoftheeasternshore.com/eastern-shore-deep-freeze/

The 1976–77 Winter in the Contiguous United States in Comparison with Past Records in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 106 Issue 10 (1978)

 

Volume 106 Issue 10 is one of my faves hahahaha

[Prestige Worldwide]

Congrats OBX!!

[frd]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That’s brutal 

 

Too cold not good 

[LeesburgWx]

2 runs in a row with GFS having a big storm. 6z was congrats Norfolk, 12z is Cape Hatteras....

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

I too am wondering if we need to moderate our expectations for getting snow out of this. Isn't this level of cold that's being modeled more often turm out to be dry/suppressive, historically?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I too am wondering if we need to moderate our expectations for getting snow out of this. Isn't this level of cold that's being modeled more often turm out to be dry/suppressive, historically?

My guess is the models will moderate and it won’t be that cold and thus the storms will be more north. 

[clskinsfan]

Canadian was lining us up for a pummeling around the 8th-9th imo. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

2 runs in a row with GFS having a big storm. 6z was congrats Norfolk, 12z is Cape Hatteras....

 

 

Well in all fairness I wouldn’t bet the house on the entirety of Florida getting a hard freeze

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I too am wondering if we need to moderate our expectations for getting snow out of this. Isn't this level of cold that's being modeled more often turm out to be dry/suppressive, historically?

Not always but will often trend in that direction.

In January of 66, I received 16 inches of snow in one storm that found heavy snow falling with a 3 pm temperature of +4!     Coldest I ever witnessed in the middle of a snowstorm!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS is really honking on the Jan 6-10 time period. That's a hell of a sw signal entering the Plains in addition to the obvious other favorable teleconnection indices

[rjvanals]

Before worrying about storms 10 days out remember the GFS is still showing fairly big swings for the 1/1 rainstorm which will have a downstream effect 

[stormy]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I too am wondering if we need to moderate our expectations for getting snow out of this. Isn't this level of cold that's being modeled more often turm out to be dry/suppressive, historically?

The GEM saves us at 270:

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS is really honking on the Jan 6-10 time period. That's a hell of a sw signal entering the Plains in addition to the obvious other favorable teleconnection indices

yup, that 7-9th time period is really intriguing. super consistent on all ensembles and everything seems to be lining up for it

[Ralph Wiggum]

12z gefs as expected is not suppressed nor any fish storm for the 7th-8th 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, that 7-9th time period is really intriguing. super consistent on all ensembles and everything seems to be lining up for it

Eerie similarities to Jan 96 tbh.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z gefs as expected is not suppressed nor any fish storm for the 7th-8th 

 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO leaves the door open for the 4th - like the trend on that so far. 
 

Cuts on the 6th - tiny bit of ice to rain. Might be setting up something larger for the 10th. (Jk suppressed to oblivion) 

[clskinsfan]

UKIE was a little more robust with the small event on the 4th. Maybe we can get a little surprise out of that one?

[wasnow215]

For someone who has done a lot of reading only since I've been on this site for more than a decade now, I would caution those who look at surface maps of the models in a good pattern that we now know is most likely coming, and say "where's the snow" or "suppression" in the same way we shouldn't take one or 2 model runs that show snow 10-12 days out in a bad pattern and think that'll happen.
 

Right now the pattern, ensembles, and MJO etc all scream at least some snow. Seeing discrete events or not at this point is not close to the most important thing for those (like most of us), who want snow. 

[Buddy1987]

End of the 12z Canadian was setting up for something juicy!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Last post on this one as we still have a few disturbances to get thru before this one, but it is intriguing. Last 3 gefs

[frd]

With this look have to think hard about snow chances, seems to be a massive push of arctic cold way South, and with it any hopes for snow .