January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Terpeast]

Based on the mslp anomalies, all ensembles seem to agree on a good track for us between 1/6-10. So far this is holding well. 

[Weather Will]

MJO is trending more amplified into 8-1 as we head into January, we will take all the help we can get.

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Based on the mslp anomalies, all ensembles seem to agree on a good track for us between 1/6-10. So far this is holding well. 

For the initial storm, there is definitely a Miller B look among some members, with initial lower pressure to our NW- more so on the EPS. Given the advertised pattern the NS is going to be busy and as we get closer tracking wave interactions and timing is going to be 'fun' lol.

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For the initial storm, there is definitely a Miller B look among some members, with initial lower pressure to our NW- more so on the EPS. Given the advertised pattern the NS is going to be busy and as we get closer tracking wave interactions and timing is going to be 'fun' lol.

This could be one of those periods where we close well as these vorts get over the upper air and surface observation network. Suddenly a coating - 1" turns into a widespread 3" - 5" then reinforcing cold air.

[Eskimo Joe]

Barney says hi

 

 

[87storms]

Thank you for this.  I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore.  But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57,  71-77, 89-94 to name a few.   I try to look at it as a positive.  If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing,  

Snowy periods are gonna continue to be fewer and farther between as long as the planet continues to warm. Unfortunately, only about 50% of the population understands this rudimentary concept.

[RevWarReenactor]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Barney says hi

 

 

Historic cold is not what we want. High heating bills and suppressed storms.

We've had a lot of these historic cold outburst in the last 10 years. None of them have produced snow for our region. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I know it’s a euro op run at range but it has highs in the single digits for dc at the end of its run.  It’s gonna be cold. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Historic cold is not what we want. High heating bills and suppressed storms.

We've had a lot of these historic cold outburst in the last 10 years. None of them have produced snow for our region. 

The set up at least is for cold and snow! 500 mill bar ensemble runs continue to scream at least some snow in the period we are all looking at and vodka cold to keep it around. 

[poolz1]

I'll take historic cold if it comes as advertised by the 0z euro.  Most likely an areawide blanket of snow from 1-2 events and likely more opportunities as the vortex lifts NE.  The end of the euro op was a wild look.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[frd]

I am getting a boat and heading East, way East.  

This representation is meh for the low lands all along the East Coast. 

And, yes I know 

Thinking this trends better over time. Should be a cycle of storms from offshore trending to more typical SECS, analogs will be telling as well. 

[nj2va]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1872981111959077370?s=46

Giddy giddy

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If we got the Jan 4 storm back, it would be a nice reminder of the timeframe our storms usually appear in. I’m one of the guilty parties, but we’ve been trying to track individual threats in the long range for a week now, lol. 

fwiw - 06z EPS for the 4th has an interesting blended mean. You'd look at this and think something probably happens

[LeesburgWx]

I'm starting to get excited. I'm hoping for the blizzard. But even 2 light-moderate events and then the hammer being dropped temp wise would ensure a winter oasis for a good chunk of January. Ordering that next batch of firewood today before the general public catches on

[frd]

 

OMG all of these index forecasts keep looking better every day, crazy !!!   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fwiw - 06z EPS for the 4th has an interesting blended mean. You'd look at this and think something probably happens

EPS has the stronger shortwave like the op.

[bncho]

2-4" out of Jan 4-5 would be such a bonus.

[frd]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS has the stronger shortwave like the op.

 

Looking at North America, and even NW of Alaska there is no shortage of disturbances moving SE  to feed into the massive cold pool over the East. 

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

 

OMG all of these index forecasts keep looking better every day, crazy !!!   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great to see the AO tank while the PNA ticks up. Even better is that we don't appear to lose the Pacific side of things for awhile, therefore we might be in for a solid period of winter here.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Great to see the AO tank while the PNA ticks up. Even better is that we don't appear to lose the Pacific side of things for awhile, therefore we might be in for a solid period of winter here.

Totally agree.

MJO even looks decent, along with a weaker PV and expanding snow cover over NA to provide less moderation at temps,  all happening at a time of still low solar output.  

[poolz1]

Not a bad look from the 12z icon at the end of the run.  Maybe setting up a front end thump type deal for the 6/7th.

[stormy]

The CPC January temperature anomaly along the east coast is being destroyed by the 6 - 24 day.

[frd]

 

1-19-85

1-9-77

1-12-2016

12-23-09

 

 

 

[WhiteoutMD]

What are some of the coldest inauguration days?


.

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

What are some of the coldest inauguration days?


.

Here's one...

 

Inauguration Day in 1985, which was the coldest January Inauguration Day on record, according to the National Weather Service. This was President Ronald Reagan's second inauguration after being reelected, and with temperatures at just 7 degrees at noon, his swearing-in ceremony was moved inside and the traditional parade was canceled. Temperature that day fell to a low of 4 degrees below zero, with wind chills as low as minus-20 degrees.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1872981111959077370?s=46

Giddy giddy

Problem is he is focused on the Carolina's and SE. Which I think is probably sitting prettier than us with that much cold push. We may end up having to wait for a relaxation before scoring. Hope I am wrong. 

[wxdude64]

6 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

What are some of the coldest inauguration days?


.

Reagan's 2nd in '85. Oops, beaten by wasnow215 lol.

[WhiteoutMD]

Problem is he is focused on the Carolina's and SE. Which I think is probably sitting prettier than us with that much cold push. We may end up having to wait for a relaxation before scoring. Hope I am wrong. 

Yes this is what I’m thinking but many times this extreme cold doesn’t happen is what I am hoping for.


.

[stormtracker]

The 6th is there on the GFS...just sfc is marginal and kind of diffuse and unorganized .  Thought it would be better based on the H5 map and a kind of 50/50 showing up