January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jan 4 fantasy system  on life support. Still there at h5 to Kickstart the epic pattern tho 

Saw you took back the DOA post. Good to hedge!

what’s really missing this run is that Jan 5-6th storm… vanished entirely. Coming to grips with the fact that this pattern’s best shot at producing will be firmly while I’m drinking a marg on the beach. Worse problems to have 

[stormtracker]

The 6-8 period still active on the GFS.   Disorganized slug of mess goes to our west tho.   For this timeframe, we good.

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Saw you took back the DOA post. Good to hedge!

what’s really missing this run is that Jan 5-6th storm… vanished entirely. Coming to grips with the fact that this pattern’s best shot at producing will be firmly while I’m drinking a marg on the beach. Worse problems to have 

Oops - one too many tonight. Happy Holidays! Nice to see the Jan 6/7 surviving. 

[Ji]

4th seems dead af to me

The 4th was never alive to have died

[yoda]

Don't mind the 00z CMC look at the end of its run 

[Ji]

The 6-8 period still active on the GFS.   Disorganized slug of mess goes to our west tho.   For this timeframe, we good.

Go with Canada

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Go with Canada

Yeah, I'd roll the dice with that vs GFS for sure.

[bncho]

10th looking spicy.

[Ji]

10th looking spicy.

More like a dash of chili powder

[Frederick Weather]

WOW!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Frederick Weather said:

WOW!!!

Looked so good it brought out even the rare posters? 

[Deck Pic]

Y'all have been looking more than me.  But yum.  I'm guessing there are chances of earlier events but don't we usually get the big one as the pattern breaks down?   

[yoda]

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872887141560402245

 

[dailylurker]

Congrats VA Beach lol

[LeesburgWx]

yeah, 6z GFS pummles VA Beach. Really hoping suppression isn't what kills us. I like where we sit though being this is still like 10 days out

[BristowWx]

29 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Congrats VA Beach lol

They’re due for a decade of snowfall in a day

[North Balti Zen]

Everyone that gets giddy over the avocado progs is getting giddy over suppression. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Everyone that gets giddy over the avocado progs is getting giddy over suppression. 

That comes after our back to back snowstorms.

[wasnow215]

5 hours ago, bncho said:

“Today will be cold with a high of 6 and a low of -2.”

Circa 1994!

[CAPE]

The 7-8th potential storm on the 6z GEFS-

[MDScienceTeacher]

28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Circa 1994!

or Feb 2015.

[CAPE]

Way out there and a little more diffuse but there is a signal for the 10th.

[CAPE]

The 0z EPS has storm signals for the 6-7th and again around the 10th. Ditto for the CMC ens.

Nice to see agreement on the same general timeframes. No details.

 

[CAPE]

Interestingly the 6z Euro has a much more distinct/sharper shortwave embedded in the flow at the end of its run. Something to keep on eye on for the 12z suite. Although Jan 4 has never looked like a big storm potential, hints for something minor have been there on some op runs and ens guidance.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS; this is all week two but it is the best GEFS run so far this winter. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

15 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet.  IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023).  Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years.

Thank you for this.  I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore.  But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57,  71-77, 89-94 to name a few.   I try to look at it as a positive.  If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing,  

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Thank you for this.  I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore.  But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57,  71-77, 89-94 to name a few.   I try to look at it as a positive.  If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing,  

Agreed. Even if you believe the it's getting much harder to snow around here theory (I definitely do). It's still more likely to snow a bit then not snow at all. Especially between now and Feb 15th. Models look great. Let's keep it coming thru New Year's for some epic runs on NYE

[wxdude64]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

“Today will be cold with a high of 6 and a low of -2.”

Or out this way. Cold with a high of -4 and a low of -14. Sheesh.

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS; this is all week two but it is the best GEFS run so far this winter. 

Those are pretty solid. 

[NorthArlington101]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Interestingly the 6z Euro has a much more distinct/sharper shortwave embedded in the flow at the end of its run. Something to keep on eye on for the 12z suite. Although Jan 4 has never looked like a big storm potential, hints for something minor have been there on some op runs and ens guidance.

If we got the Jan 4 storm back, it would be a nice reminder of the timeframe our storms usually appear in. I’m one of the guilty parties, but we’ve been trying to track individual threats in the long range for a week now, lol.