Ji Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Meh Everything always looks so good until we see the precip map lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 You guys can say whatever you want, but if you want to gamble on snow, now is the time. ESPECIALLY if you have a gambling addiction. Like PSU said, this is the BEST cold-ENSO pattern since 1996. I wouldn't even that surprised to see a day with highs in the low 20s and upper 10s. Do not worry if precip is hard to come by. Firstly, January is the least PWAT month, and secondly, if a storm hits from Jan 6 and onward it'll be snow 90% of the time. Jan 4-5 would be a bonus if we can get it, but I don't see that as the major thing to focus on. Jan 6-10 would be the time to watch. Unironically a blizzard redux had a similar date to that. I wonder what it was...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If something doesn't come to fruition out of this pattern then they should ban mets from Twitter from now on. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: When the southeast and TN Valley posters are getting interested, then you know we're probably in a good spot. "I haven't said this in years..." "Best since 2022" What? I mean I guess technically he's right but... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What indicates a split flow in that H5 plot? I just see a Baja-to North Pole ridge which I would have though would block the STJ... As you said that ridge is huge, so energy in the NJ will be directed up and over. But look at the isobars east of Hawaii....they split the flow and go underneath that ridge. There is even a blue blob evident in the stj out there that wants to eventually undercut. That's your split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As you said that ridge is huge, so energy in the NJ will be directed up and over. But look at the isobars east of Hawaii....they split the flow and go underneath that ridge. There is even a blue blob evident in the stj out there that wants to eventually undercut. That's your split flow. And just to add, when you get a deep stj feed like that one(Pineapple Connection)...interesting things can develop out of that in the form of juicy stj fed storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As you said that ridge is huge, so energy in the NJ will be directed up and over. But look at the isobars east of Hawaii....they split the flow and go underneath that ridge. There is even a blue blob evident in the stj out there that wants to eventually undercut. That's your split flow. Bring that to the Baja across northern Mexico or along the border to southeast Texas then move to Fort Walton beach and combine with a northern branch system southeast of Atlanta Georgia then crawl northward to Ocean City Md then ease out to sea to the NE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Is that your old avatar? Kinda close. But nothing quite compares to 2009-10 in the NA. Legit sustained atmospheric block that produced crazy results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 CPC's 3-4 week outlooks scream a lot of snow. Temperatures: Precip: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. Yeah it ticked better. If that setup is legit it makes sense for it to be a thump type deal. Loooong way to go though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. Would be a pretty nice little thump upfront. I would take a thump to dryslot type deal in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yeah it ticked better. If that setup is legit it makes sense for it to be a thump type deal. Loooong way to go though . Interesting. Things have trended better for Jan 4-6 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 /thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Bring that to the Baja across northern Mexico or along the border to southeast Texas then move to Fort Walton beach and combine with a northern branch system southeast of Atlanta Georgia then crawl northward to Ocean City Md then ease out to sea to the NE. @Jialready bitching about the back edge of your fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it. Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days. Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business. Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away... 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it. Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days. Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business. Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away... We're in the midst of the most disgusting multi-year snow drought in recorded history. We're like a lifeboat full of starving shipwreck survivors and in the distance we see what looks like an island with a Golden Corral on it. There's only so much restraint you can expect. But I do worry. Things look good now, but it could all fall apart. Heck it doesn't even have to fall apart; it could just be one of those good patterns where the timing is off and the potential gets wasted. It's happened before and it will happen again. We have so much emotionally invested in this now the potential for disappointment is yuuuuuge. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 30 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it. Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days. Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business. Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away... Damn I resent Lucy so damn much! I am sick of a Lucy Winter in DC! I want you guys to get buried ALIVE in deep pow, with NE winds blowing it right past the streetlights! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Of interest https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872804772027285756 A note of caution...the analog patterns centered on the 9th are not the most snow heavy in the world for DC. Of the 10 listed, only four had above 5" of snow in January. 1981 - 4.2" 2001 - 2.7" 2007 - 1.3" 2002 - 4.5" 1980 - 8.6" 1985 - 10.0" 1977 - 10.3" 2017 - 1.4" 2018 - 1.2" 2010 - 7.4" So the "it's cold but the storms just don't line up for DC" scenario is of course, on the table. But still, it's hard not to be excited for the pattern ahead. None of the analog years had NO snow, and I'm doubtful we get through the first 2/3 of January without getting SOMETHING to stick on the ground. Just not sure if that means a blizzard, or more of a less memorable but still disruptive snow. Time will tell...(8/) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: We're in the midst of the most disgusting multi-year snow drought in recorded history. We're like a lifeboat full of starving shipwreck survivors and in the distance we see what looks like an island with a Golden Corral on it. There's only so much restraint you can expect. But I do worry. Things look good now, but it could all fall apart. Heck it doesn't even have to fall apart; it could just be one of those good patterns where the timing is off and the potential gets wasted. It's happened before and it will happen again. We have so much emotionally invested in this now the potential for disappointment is yuuuuuge. Did you seriously just say Golden Corral? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it. Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days. Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business. Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away... Oh noes not that nasty jinx shit again. Ruins everything! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Snow into Florida, ensures snow in our region. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1872828840109867239 Checking on the AIFS 18z ... unloads everything on the Eastern U.S. Still 10-12 days away, but unless/until something changes with all of the models, we're looking at a severe cold snap in Jan 8-11 windows. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it. Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days. Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business. Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away... Please send the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Jan 4 fantasy system on life support. Still there at h5 to Kickstart the epic pattern tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Jan 4 fantasy system on life support. Still there at h5 to Kickstart the epic pattern tho 4th seems dead af to me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Jan 4 fantasy system on life support. Still there at h5 to Kickstart the epic pattern tho Saw you took back the DOA post. Good to hedge! what’s really missing this run is that Jan 5-6th storm… vanished entirely. Coming to grips with the fact that this pattern’s best shot at producing will be firmly while I’m drinking a marg on the beach. Worse problems to have 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The 6-8 period still active on the GFS. Disorganized slug of mess goes to our west tho. For this timeframe, we good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Saw you took back the DOA post. Good to hedge! what’s really missing this run is that Jan 5-6th storm… vanished entirely. Coming to grips with the fact that this pattern’s best shot at producing will be firmly while I’m drinking a marg on the beach. Worse problems to have Oops - one too many tonight. Happy Holidays! Nice to see the Jan 6/7 surviving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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