January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems pretty good

 

So many nice things there...I'm admiring the smoothed out 50/50. I'm cuddling with that tonight but I might share the time with the aleutian low. The split flow is beautiful AF too tho. NAO mmmm 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So many nice things there...I'm admiring the smoothed out 50/50. I'm cuddling with that tonight but I might share the time with the aleutian low. The split flow is beautiful AF too tho. NAO mmmm 

What indicates a split flow in that H5 plot?  I just see a Baja-to North Pole ridge which I would have though would block the STJ...

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

If that doesn’t work… lol 

You put that log book back on the shelf for now sir. Revisit it in April. 

[Ji]

Meh 

Everything always looks so good until we see the precip map lol

[bncho]

You guys can say whatever you want, but if you want to gamble on snow, now is the time. ESPECIALLY if you have a gambling addiction.
Like PSU said, this is the BEST cold-ENSO pattern since 1996. I wouldn't even that surprised to see a day with highs in the low 20s and upper 10s.

Do not worry if precip is hard to come by. Firstly, January is the least PWAT month, and secondly, if a storm hits from Jan 6 and onward it'll be snow 90% of the time.

Jan 4-5 would be a bonus if we can get it, but I don't see that as the major thing to focus on. Jan 6-10 would be the time to watch. Unironically a blizzard redux had a similar date to that. I wonder what it was...?

[IronTy]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

If something doesn't come to fruition out of this pattern then they should ban mets from Twitter from now on.  

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

When the southeast and TN Valley posters are getting interested, then you know we're probably in a good spot.

 

 

"I haven't said this in years..."

"Best since 2022"

 

What?   I mean I guess technically he's right but...

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What indicates a split flow in that H5 plot?  I just see a Baja-to North Pole ridge which I would have though would block the STJ...

As you said that ridge is huge, so energy in the NJ will be directed up and over. But look at the isobars east of Hawaii....they split the flow and go underneath that ridge. There is even a blue blob evident in the stj out there that wants to eventually undercut. That's your split flow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As you said that ridge is huge, so energy in the NJ will be directed up and over. But look at the isobars east of Hawaii....they split the flow and go underneath that ridge. There is even a blue blob evident in the stj out there that wants to eventually undercut. That's your split flow.

And just to add, when you get a deep stj feed like that one(Pineapple Connection)...interesting things can develop out of that in the form of juicy stj fed storms.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As you said that ridge is huge, so energy in the NJ will be directed up and over. But look at the isobars east of Hawaii....they split the flow and go underneath that ridge. There is even a blue blob evident in the stj out there that wants to eventually undercut. That's your split flow.

Bring that to the Baja across northern Mexico or along the border to southeast Texas then move to Fort Walton beach and combine with a northern branch system southeast of Atlanta Georgia then crawl northward to Ocean City Md then ease out to sea to the NE. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Is that your old avatar?

Kinda close. But nothing quite compares to 2009-10 in the NA. Legit sustained atmospheric block that produced crazy results.

[bncho]

CPC's 3-4 week outlooks scream a lot of snow.
Temperatures:




Precip:

[Heisy]

18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. 

Yeah it ticked better. If that setup is legit it makes sense for it to be a thump type deal. Loooong way to go though


.

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. 

Would be a pretty nice little thump upfront. I would take a thump to dryslot type deal in a heartbeat. 

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet. 

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it ticked better. If that setup is legit it makes sense for it to be a thump type deal. Loooong way to go though


.

Interesting. Things have trended better for Jan 4-6 today. 

[Eskimo Joe]

/thread

 

 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Bring that to the Baja across northern Mexico or along the border to southeast Texas then move to Fort Walton beach and combine with a northern branch system southeast of Atlanta Georgia then crawl northward to Ocean City Md then ease out to sea to the NE. 

@Jialready bitching about the back edge of your fantasy storm. 

[Weather Will]

Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it.  Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days.  Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business.  Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away...

[WxUSAF]

 

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it.  Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days.  Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business.  Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away...

We're in the midst of the most disgusting multi-year snow drought in recorded history.  We're like a lifeboat full of starving shipwreck survivors and in the distance we see what looks like an island with a Golden Corral on it.  There's only so much restraint you can expect.  But I do worry.  Things look good now, but it could all fall apart.  Heck it doesn't even have to fall apart; it could just be one of those good patterns where the timing is off and the potential gets wasted.  It's happened before and it will happen again.  We have so much emotionally invested in this now the potential for disappointment is yuuuuuge.

[Jebman]

30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it.  Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days.  Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business.  Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away...

Damn I resent Lucy so damn much! I am sick of a Lucy Winter in DC! I want you guys to get buried ALIVE in deep pow, with NE winds blowing it right past the streetlights!

[frd]

Of interest 

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872804772027285756

A note of caution...the analog patterns centered on the 9th are not the most snow heavy in the world for DC. Of the 10 listed, only four had above 5" of snow in January. 1981 - 4.2" 2001 - 2.7" 2007 - 1.3" 2002 - 4.5" 1980 - 8.6" 1985 - 10.0" 1977 - 10.3" 2017 - 1.4" 2018 - 1.2" 2010 - 7.4" So the "it's cold but the storms just don't line up for DC" scenario is of course, on the table. But still, it's hard not to be excited for the pattern ahead. None of the analog years had NO snow, and I'm doubtful we get through the first 2/3 of January without getting SOMETHING to stick on the ground. Just not sure if that means a blizzard, or more of a less memorable but still disruptive snow. Time will tell...(8/)

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

We're in the midst of the most disgusting multi-year snow drought in recorded history.  We're like a lifeboat full of starving shipwreck survivors and in the distance we see what looks like an island with a Golden Corral on it.  There's only so much restraint you can expect.  But I do worry.  Things look good now, but it could all fall apart.  Heck it doesn't even have to fall apart; it could just be one of those good patterns where the timing is off and the potential gets wasted.  It's happened before and it will happen again.  We have so much emotionally invested in this now the potential for disappointment is yuuuuuge.

Did you seriously just say Golden Corral?

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it.  Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days.  Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business.  Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away...

Oh noes not that nasty jinx shit again. Ruins everything!

[frd]

 

 

Snow into Florida, ensures snow in our region. 

 

 

  

[frd]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1872828840109867239

Checking on the AIFS 18z ... unloads everything on the Eastern U.S. Still 10-12 days away, but unless/until something changes with all of the models, we're looking at a severe cold snap in Jan 8-11 windows.

 

[bncho]

53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Even the Washington Post has an article on the upcoming pattern....never seen so much hype bordering on hysteria. Everyone must be hitting the egg nog hard this year. Don't jinx it.  Mother Nature will throw us some curves the next 30 days.  Hopefully, there will be a discrete threat by next weekend but no guarantees in this business.  Remember, Lucy is always waiting to pull the football away...

Please send the link.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Jan 4 fantasy system  on life support. Still there at h5 to Kickstart the epic pattern tho 

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jan 4 fantasy system  on life support. Still there at h5 to Kickstart the epic pattern tho 

 

4th seems dead af to me