January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[cbmclean]

49 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet.  IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023).  Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years.

2023 was not a happy winter 

[stormtracker]

So, I'm finally getting back into model watching.  The 4th is dead on the 18z.  But the next "thing" looks....not dead...but could cut or be to close for comfort.  Or be nothing.

Ya know, I should be paid for this analysis. 

[TSSN+]

18z back to the dumps. Back for 0z hammer 

[stormtracker]

We're cooked verbatim, but so what.  It's 150 hours plus out.  Nobody should be whining, but we all should be happy to be in the game at this point.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z back to the dumps. Back for 0z hammer 

The evolution is generally similar to 12z. The low track is further NW- pretty obvious why comparing the upper levels between the 2 runs.

Too far out to care much. Onward.

[CAPE]

Up next-

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Up next-

Yeah, I'm ahead and it's interesting.  Goes neg tilt

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm ahead and it's interesting.  Goes neg tilt

Yeah I'm always behind. WB lol.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Up next-

We're probably about to get it good....too bad it's in fantasy land.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We're probably about to get it good....too bad it's in fantasy land.

It looks strange on Pivotal - not sure what to make of that 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I'm always behind. WB lol.

It's a nice evolution. Comma head ftw  Heavy precip while I straddle that sfc freezing line.  Then it collapses and we all get it good.  Sigh.  Wish that was 100 hours instead of 30000

[stormtracker]

But anyway, back to realistic stuff...just gonna hone in on the 6th.   4th seems dry.   As CAPE said, onward. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a nice evolution.  Heavy precip while I straddle that sfc freezing line.  Then it collapses and we all get it good.  Sigh.  Wish that was 100 hours instead of 30000

The advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles supports it. Good to see snowy outcomes on the op runs, albeit sporadically at this juncture.

[CAPE]

12z also had a storm in the 10-12 time frame, also a bit further south.

[Eskimo Joe]

When the southeast and TN Valley posters are getting interested, then you know we're probably in a good spot.

 

 

[clskinsfan]

56 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That is huge. Best post ever.  You never see that.  Wow

Yeah. Worst case we are going to be able to ice skate on our local ponds. I dont think we are going to have temp issues this January for once. And the Gulf looks open for business in the long range. All we can really ask for at this point. 

[CAPE]

Pretty nice h5 look leading into an approaching storm.

And then the storm-

[WxUSAF]

Seems pretty good

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems pretty good

 

Most impressive h5 look for that timeframe that I have seen on any guidance.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Most impressive h5 look for that timeframe that I have seen on any guidance.

Lol ninja’d! Although I guess mine’s 6 hours later so not perfectly identical 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems pretty good

 

 

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Most impressive h5 look for that timeframe that I have seen on any guidance.

If that doesn’t work… lol 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

If that doesn’t work… lol 

We just need this to hold until it actually verifies. 

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We just need this to hold until it actually verifies. 

Guidance has stayed strong with this look. We just need to get to New Year's Day and have a strong storm signal around the 6-10th.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

If that doesn’t work… lol 

 

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We just need this to hold until it actually verifies. 

As (some of us) we know, a big event takes some luck even with a great longwave pattern. But odds for something continue to increase. For an epic month, some small events and a big dog are a typical combo.

[bncho]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

18z back to the dumps. Back for 0z hammer 

Not really. In fantasy range it shows a nice little snowstorm of 4-6".
 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Holy shit
  

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

As (some of us) we know, a big event takes some luck even with a great longwave pattern. But odds for something continue to increase. For an epic month, some small events and a big dog are a typical combo.

Ironically a while back I said I just wanted a period where we had at least a chance because 1996 wasn’t walking in the door.  And now guidance shows the best cold enso pattern since 1996. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty nice h5 look leading into an approaching storm.

And then the storm-

Meh 

[cbmclean]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Most impressive h5 look for that timeframe that I have seen on any guidance.

Is that your old avatar?