January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[TSSN+]

Guess someone tell the cfs it’s supposed to be cold in Jan and not wall to wall torch? 
 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

January is the low point for PWAT climo in these parts. Sure you can get a big dog like 1996 or 2000, but the big game typically is found in February.

"PWAT"?

And also...I do question February as I see in the general thread that the nina seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and getting a bit more established. Makes me wonder if that means we see a more typical nina-like February torch or not.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

hey, you were the one who told me to check! 

I knew you already did. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"PWAT"?

And also...I do question February as I see in the general thread that the nina seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and getting a bit more established. Makes me wonder if that means we see a more typical nina-like February torch or not.

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pwat

Quote

PWAT

Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks basically like climo to me, so I'd toss, but those maps rarely pan out anyway. Just get me to 2025 and then we can start looking at actual threats.

Except all the snow falls the last 7 days. Normally we see the whole 15 day mean look like that…if the run were to continue it would look better than climo. But you’re seeing a below climo week and an above one.  
 

This is a pretty good 7 day mean compared to what we typically see recently 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"PWAT"?

And also...I do question February as I see in the general thread that the nina seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and getting a bit more established. Makes me wonder if that means we see a more typical nina-like February torch or not.

Precipitable Water Amount. As @Bob Chill has said several times, we're at one of the drier times of the year so it's not surprising that we aren't seeing big dog snowstorms at D15.

[psuhoffman]

Keep in mind the first 7 days look like this lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Even PSU is slightly optimistic. 

 

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

No biggies this run but lots of activity. Probably gonna get real busy in here come this time next week.

Thinking back to the ensembles from a few days ago.  Honestly, I think it gets busy in here starting sooner rather than later say this Saturday into Sunday.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except all the snow falls the last 7 days. Normally we see the whole 15 day mean look like that…if the run were to continue it would look better than climo. But you’re seeing a below climo week and an above one.  
 

This is a pretty good 7 day mean compared to what we typically see recently 

 

Until there is a persistent discrete threat, this is probably about as good as it gets at this range over a 5 or 7 day window. Problem is it can go right back to looking paltry the next run, and it really means nothing wrt the upcoming potential. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. As it stands now, is we score on 1/4 it would be a boom scenario. We do have decent cold air arriving from a fresh source region with this event, so it would not take a lot for us to score a decent advisory-level event. 

screams rain to snow event 2-4" / 3-5"

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Until there is a persistent discrete threat, this is probably about as good as it gets at this range over a 5 or 7 day window. Problem is it can go right back to looking paltry the next run, and it really means nothing wrt the upcoming potential. 

We really should still be looking at the general long wave pattern at this point not trying to worry too much about specific synoptic threats yet (except the Jan 3-4th wave) but people are getting anxious and acting like the day 10-15 stuff is day 5-10 or even less…

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

We really should still be looking at the general long wave pattern at this point not trying to worry too much about specific synoptic threats yet (except the Jan 3-4th wave) but people are getting anxious and acting like the day 10-15 stuff is day 5-10 or even less…

This happens every year we get a good pattern...

1. the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early.
2. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet
3. it doesn't actually snow 
   • this is optional - it could actually snow this time 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This happens every year we get a good pattern...

1. the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early.
2. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet
3. it doesn't actually snow 
   • this is optional - it could actually snow this time 

It did actually snow both times we identified a better pattern last year. But not nearly as much as we hoped for. 

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This happens every year we get a good pattern...

1. the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early.
2. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet
3. it doesn't actually snow 
   • this is optional - it could actually snow this time 

I'm not panicking--I'm just an impatient little bitch.

[stormtracker]

44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This happens every year we get a good pattern...

1. the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early.
2. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet
3. it doesn't actually snow 
   • this is optional - it could actually snow this time 

I call this the human pendulum season.  I try to invite psych majors in here during winter months for their research papers/studies.

[NorthArlington101]

[IronTy]

59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This happens every year we get a good pattern...

1. the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early.
2. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet
3. it doesn't actually snow 
   • this is optional - it could actually snow this time 

This basically sums up the last five years on this forum.  

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I call this the human pendulum season.  I try to invite psych majors in here during winter months for their research papers/studies.

Oh they'd have a field day in here! Plenty of case studies...(but do you seriously invite them, though?)

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you're speaking about temps, I would agree. So far this winter, every advertised torch has been muted as we get into the short and medium range. 

I'm not sure how well this upcoming mild stretch has been adveratised (haven't paid close attention), but it's looking mild through early next week.  It'll be interesting to see how well the ensembles paint reality by mid-January.  Looks like the main question will be whether we fall back into cold/dry or whether the southern stream/gom can get involved.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It did actually snow both times we identified a better pattern last year. But not nearly as much as we hoped for. 

I’m close to the point where I’d be surprised if we get totally skunked. But that doesn’t mean big totals.

[Eskimo Joe]

WPC going cold

 

[Heisy]

I’m close to the point where I’d be surprised if we get totally skunked. But that doesn’t mean big totals.

Yea i agree I bet we see at least a front end type system with the potential CAD and cold air available, I’d be shocked if we get shut out


.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Heisy said:

Yea i agree I bet we see at least a front end type system with the potential CAD and cold air available, I’d be shocked if we get shut out

your AI EURO friend has something along those lines for the 5th - keeps going more amped/not as great for our subforum, though

[stormy]

Last Sunday at 4:22 pm I said that Jan. 3-8 was a 5 day threat period..............................

To bat 1000, I think that I will stand pat..................

[WVclimo]

Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet.  IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023).  Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years.

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m close to the point where I’d be surprised if we get totally skunked. But that doesn’t mean big totals.

None of the analogs were snowless.  

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Looks like we are solidly in the no risk area

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

WPC going cold

 

That is huge. Best post ever.  You never see that.  Wow