January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[poolz1]

Seems the trend on the ops and ens at 12z is to improve the Atlantic during the 1/6-8 period.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol oh man. you have everything you need on the table here

 This is just about perfect. I cannot find anything wrong with this.

[Interstate]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take reasonable adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us. Primary goes from TN -> OH instead of TN -> offshore.

Looks like a crappy Miler B that developes too far inland.

[Eskimo Joe]

Source region is just wide open. Hot damn.

 

 

[CAPE]

12z EPS is  similar to 0z with the Miller B idea for the 6th and another wave after that. Again looks very active.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z EPS mean has -15 air creeping into NW Maryland towards the end of the run and what appears to be another reload coming down from Canada. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

The sustained torch for this upcoming week got walked back to 3/4 days.

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS is  similar to 0z with the Miller B idea for the 6th and another wave after that. Again looks very active.

I see 6/7th, 8/9th, and then cold/drier for the end of the run but door still open. Weekies keep the possibilities open throughout Jan with the snow mean for weeks 3/4 being respectable.
 

The 4th also trended a hair better. 

[Ruin]

9 hours ago, Voyager said:

On that note, when was the last time a modeled cutter trended back to a coastal bomb? Seems the bomb to cutter scenario plays out far more often.

I cant recall anything for a long time maybe 10 years or so?

[MillvilleWx]

20 hours ago, wkd said:

Care to share anything not too personal?  Looks like you have a job with a great outfit.

Personal stuff 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I see 6/7th, 8/9th, and then cold/drier for the end of the run but door still open. Weekies keep the possibilities open throughout Jan with the snow mean for weeks 3/4 being respectable.
 

The 4th also trended a hair better. 

It won't take much for the 4th to be a legit advisory level event, then we get cold air on fresh snow. Would be like the winters of the early 2000s. 

[MillvilleWx]

15 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve been (anecdotally) unimpressed but others, including folks I respect (e.g., Matt Lanza) have blogged about use cases where anecdotally it does very very well. It’s lost some recent fights with its parent locally… but it scores well and I personally think this is one of the stronger AI use-cases. 

AI has done very well with tropical system steering. Very different storm structure and mechanism for steering, so the jury is still out on mid-latitude cyclones, however there’s a lot of good data on its ability to pinpoint areal QPF coverage and pointing where heavier precip will be located. Not great in magnitude with convective backgrounds, but knowing where is a big plus. Not perfect, but helps with forecasting. Long range beyond D5 for synoptic scale is hit or miss. Something we‘ll be assessing at WPC end of season for verification. 

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z EPS mean has -15 air creeping into NW Maryland towards the end of the run and what appears to be another reload coming down from Canada. 

Can you post that map 

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS is  similar to 0z with the Miller B idea for the 6th and another wave after that. Again looks very active.

 

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Can you post that map 

See above.

[frd]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS is  similar to 0z with the Miller B idea for the 6th and another wave after that. Again looks very active.

You think this continues to trend better this weekend into next week? 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

You think this continues to trend better this weekend into next week? 

If you're speaking about temps, I would agree. So far this winter, every advertised torch has been muted as we get into the short and medium range. 

[rjvanals]

One concern I have is the ensembles aren't showing a ton of chances for P>4" in the next 15 days liking south of us for 1/7 and a Miller B signal for 1/9. 

[MillvilleWx]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol oh man. you have everything you need on the table here

This is nearing textbook status at this range. Amazing 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

One concern I have is the ensembles aren't showing a ton of chances for P>4" in the next 15 days liking south of us for 1/7 and a Miller B signal for 1/9. 

January is the low point for PWAT climo in these parts. Sure you can get a big dog like 1996 or 2000, but the big game typically is found in February.

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

This is nearing textbook status at this range. Amazing 

Agreed. What a beaut.

[rjvanals]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

I have to be in Syracuse for work 1/8-1/11. Of course it would snow 

Good news is Syracuse looks to be in a productive lake effect pattern 1/8-1/11 with a general NW flow 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

One concern I have is the ensembles aren't showing a ton of chances for P>4" in the next 15 days liking south of us for 1/7 and a Miller B signal for 1/9. 

The chances are looking better. We have had ens means showing 4”+ sometimes and we have gotten shafted. As long as upper air looks decent we will roll the dice. 

[rjvanals]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The chances are looking better. We have had ens means showing 4”+ sometimes and we have gotten shafted. As long as upper air looks decent we will roll the dice. 

Absolutely this is a good pattern just need to cash in and keep expectations in check 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I see 6/7th, 8/9th, and then cold/drier for the end of the run but door still open. Weekies keep the possibilities open throughout Jan with the snow mean for weeks 3/4 being respectable.
 

The 4th also trended a hair better. 

I made reference to the Jan 6-10 period on my post this morning. That looks active on the 12z run as well. Yes those appear to be the 2 windows, give or take.

 

A weenie might want to check the snow map for that period.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, CAPE said:

I made reference to the Jan 6-10 period on my post this morning. That looks active on the 12z run as well. Yes those appear to be the 2 windows, give or take.

 

A weenie might want to check the snow map for that period.

 

honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather.

it is good seeing the median get higher, though.

[stormtracker]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 This is just about perfect. I cannot find anything wrong with this.

Oh yes you could.   You, of all the people on this planet, def could

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather.

it is good seeing the median get higher, though.

That looks pretty good, I like how our sub forum is not on the southern edge if the snow.  

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather.

it is good seeing the median get higher, though.

Looks basically like climo to me, so I'd toss, but those maps rarely pan out anyway. Just get me to 2025 and then we can start looking at actual threats.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather.

it is good seeing the median get higher, though.

Those maps are what they are. Not worth much other than maybe a relative indicator between runs at this range. Supports the idea of an active period with cold in place.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That looks pretty good, I like how our sub forum is not on the southern edge if the snow.  

the distribution is great, as @Eskimo Joenoted sniping me with that tweet. But as others have mentioned, the ceiling outcomes are lacking, which troubles some more than others. I love stacking small/medium events... the median being sorta close to the mean excites me. 
 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Those maps are what they are. Not worth much other than maybe a relative indicator between runs at this range. Supports the idea of an active period with cold in place.

hey, you were the one who told me to check!