January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[CAPE]

Better interaction/a bit of phasing leads to a more robust shortwave for the 4th, pops a coastal low and we get a bit of snow. This could trend better going forward.

[CAPE]

This is just a week or so away.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS is plenty cold for the wave on the 4th. Whatever falls would 100% accumulate.

[CAPE]

We got us a wave train on the 12z GFS lol.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We got us a wave train on the 12z GFS lol.

 Can we kill these Great Lakes lows thanks 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS just wants to snow. Nice.

[osfan24]

No biggies this run but lots of activity. Probably gonna get real busy in here come this time next week.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

 Can we kill these Great Lakes lows thanks 

As the pattern progresses/gets colder these aren't the typical kind of GLs lows that will kill our thermals. There is going to be a lot of NS vorticity in the flow between the western ridge and the TPV. They can be either constructive or destructive to our hopes and dreams. Timing will be key.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

 

In weather-related news...let's cut the bs...is it gonna snow or not?

I dunno, did you spin the wheel of misfortune yet?

[brooklynwx99]

i don't think I need to explain this one very much

[WxUSAF]

Busy with holiday fun today but I endorse the 12z gfs

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

No biggies this run but lots of activity. Probably gonna get real busy in here come this time next week.

Perfect. Cold and light/mod event after light/mod event. Yea baby.

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think I need to explain this one very much

Griteater, "classic boot pattern. Woof"

[HighStakes]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Perfect. Cold and light/mod event after light/mod event. Yea baby.

 

January 1977 redux! Lol.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

January 1977 redux! Lol.

Quite anxious to see the 12z Euro, EPS, and GEFS come in. We might have the first legit winter window in several years opening up before our eyes here.

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

... light/mod event after light/mod event.  

@psuhoffman does not endorse this 

[NorthArlington101]

12z EURO is closer on Jan. 4, but still a ways to go to have that trend our way.

Might be teeing up the @HeisyJan. 6 storm, though

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO is closer on Jan. 4, but still a ways to go to have that trend our way.

Might be teeing up the @HeisyJan. 6 storm, though

Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take reasonable adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us. Primary goes from TN -> OH instead of TN -> offshore.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Been harping for 6 or 7 days so most probably think im debbing, im not, but my wag is still the Jan 4 system is the catalyst/table setter for the system(s) Jan 6-10. If we somehow cash in on the 4th that's a bonus. Best chances Jan 6-10+....Plenty of opportunity coming.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think I need to explain this one very much

That dipole develops around the 4th this run and is initially too far south- suppresses the potential wave for that timeframe. Like where this is heading though.

 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take minor adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us.

Yeah, it wouldn't take a lot to get 3-6" if things trend better.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CAPE said:

That dipole develops around the 4th this run and is initially too far south- suppresses the potential wave for that timeframe. Like where this is heading though.

 

yeah I think the 4th is really difficult to pull off in terms of anything more... the 6-8th looks ripe on the GEFS as that trough becomes a 50/50

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Quite anxious to see the 12z Euro, EPS, and GEFS come in. We might have the first legit winter window in several years opening up before our eyes here.

There's nothing better than that elusive 2-3 week period of deep winter. Constant tracking and sustained snow pack. There's nothing wrong with several consecutive moderate events. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Been harping for 6 or 7 days so most probably think im debbing, im not, but my wag is still the Jan 4 system is the catalyst/table setter for the system(s) Jan 6-10. If we somehow cash in on the 4th that's a bonus. Best chances Jan 6-10+....Plenty of opportunity coming.

Agreed. As it stands now, is we score on 1/4 it would be a boom scenario. We do have decent cold air arriving from a fresh source region with this event, so it would not take a lot for us to score a decent advisory-level event. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

There's nothing better than that elusive 2-3 week period of deep winter. Constant tracking and sustained snow pack. There's nothing wrong with several consecutive moderate events. 

^This. There's nothing more depressing than one big storm that you know is going to melt off in a few days and then peak winter climo is 55 and sunny. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^This. There's nothing more depressing than one big storm that you know is going to melt off in a few days and then peak winter climo is 55 and sunny. 

I’d take a 30” storm over 3, 5” inch storms anyday. 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS and GEPS are interesting though hardly slam dunks for the Jan 5-7th window. A bit of a suppression signal on the means - smarter people will probably post better analysis.

GEPS pretty aggressive - GEFS less so.

GEPS snow mean for Jan 5-12th:

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Thanks for explaining to me like I am 3. I was just trying to rile up Howard

If he had tried 2.5 year old  talk, you would have gotten it 

[TSSN+]

Euro one shift south from being a smoke show. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol oh man. you have everything you need on the table here

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Euro one shift south from being a smoke show. 

My window for real action is 1/6 and beyond. As many others here have said, the 1/4 wave appears to be the framework for a very workable pattern for many. If we have to downsize or shift that event to set up the pieces in the medium range, then I'm game.