January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

You have to be a teacher??

Nah. I got C-1" so maybe the wheel isn't on crack. Maybe it's more accurate than the models.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.

https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

Rolled 6 times. Got 'none' five times. 

[BlueDXer75]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Rolled 6 times. Got 'none' five times. 

Rolled once and got a BECS

[Terpeast]

Rolled 3x and got coating to 1” twice and 3-5” once 

[bncho]

The reponses somehow PERFECTLY represent each control panel of the ensembles. It's hilarious.

[aldie 22]

I got MECS 8-12"

[Ralph Wiggum]

I got None.

Clearly fringed up this way. Mid Atlantic special. 

Congrats folks

[benjammin]

I got a HECS. I guess that's acceptable.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Eskimo Joe]

Pretty rare to see Tomer honking this much. Usually he's as pessimistic as me.

 

 

[Heisy]

Jan 5 wave is growing legs.

Woof woof on this setup.

Amazing cold dome, 50/50. Cad. SLP transfer

Some hint on the 12z eps, keep an eye on it…

18z euro Ai





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[Eskimo Joe]

^primary low is way, way too far west, IMO. Looks like mix to cold rain.

[Ji]

^primary low is way, way too far west, IMO. Looks like mix to cold rain.

Not with that high location in place

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^primary low is way, way too far west, IMO. Looks like mix to cold rain.

It’s definitely wintry precip on that run looking at thermals. Guess it’s plausible it flips to ice since I can’t see every layer on WxBel

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not with that high location in place

 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s definitely wintry precip on that run looking at thermals. Guess it’s plausible it flips to ice since I can’t see every layer on WxBel

Best track is to see the primary go into western Kentucky or Tennessee and die a quick death.

[87storms]

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.
https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

None. It’s ok, I’ll use reverse psychology. It’s a secret snow weapon.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Best track is to see the primary go into western Kentucky or Tennessee and die a quick death.

def agree that the track isn't ideal - just saying it is enough verbatim. Better transfer and it's much more significant, but I'd take the 3-5"er I think it shows and happily board my a flight to my tropical destination 2 days later.
 

850s

surface

 

[Terpeast]

That looks like a snow thump to ice with CAD. But I don’t trust the AIFS with those details - it’s been doing decent with the broader long wave picture so would definitely take this into account. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

def agree that the track isn't ideal - just saying it is enough verbatim. Better transfer and it's much more significant, but I'd take the 3-5"er I think it shows and happily board my a flight to my tropical destination 2 days later.
 

850s

surface

 

Wow that's much better than I thought at 805 and the surface. Sign me up.

Just now, Terpeast said:

That looks like a snow thump to ice with CAD. But I don’t trust the AIFS with those details - it’s been doing decent with the broader long wave picture so would definitely take this into account. 

Going to be interesting to see how good this Euro AI model is this winter.

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

def agree that the track isn't ideal - just saying it is enough verbatim. Better transfer and it's much more significant, but I'd take the 3-5"er I think it shows and happily board my a flight to my tropical destination 2 days later.
 

 

It doesn’t look like there will be much excitement at your tropical destination. 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Going to be interesting to see how good this Euro AI model is this winter.

I’ve been (anecdotally) unimpressed but others, including folks I respect (e.g., Matt Lanza) have blogged about use cases where anecdotally it does very very well. It’s lost some recent fights with its parent locally… but it scores well and I personally think this is one of the stronger AI use-cases. 

[Heisy]

^primary low is way, way too far west, IMO. Looks like mix to cold rain.

Verbatim the main low heads a bit too far N so the overrunning thump is more Pa border into P but that setup is a frozen one with that CAD, and it’s 10 days out it’s about the overall pattern and potential vs specifics

Check out this cad






.

[Heisy]

That looks like a snow thump to ice with CAD. But I don’t trust the AIFS with those details - it’s been doing decent with the broader long wave picture so would definitely take this into account. 

Agreed, at this range I just use it as a tool to pinpoint some threats, that’s all.


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[Ji]

Going to be interesting to see how good this Euro AI model is this winter.

So far it’s been horrible

[Scraff]

I know everyone here picks apart every model run (and I do at times as well), but I’m all about the bigger picture in general these days. And if Justin Berk’s FB post doesn’t have you all fired up after this one…

Looking Beyond This Rainy Weekend....
Let's GEEK OUT a bit about Winter turning WINTRY in the new year
ALL SIGNS Point to a VERY COLD JANUARY- and maybe quite snowy... 
Here is the European Model Ensemble Jet Stream for next Thursday Jan 2, 2025. The start of the colder pattern for the Eastern US. As a high ridge builds for the Western US, it will enhance the pattern.

The temperatures are also the ENSEMBLE for Baltimore's BWI. The cold air may be followed by a second stronger ARCTIC PUSH in the second week of the month. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation chart has a very strong cold signal for this time. Many other global patterns support cold and snow including POSITIVE PNA and MJO in Region 8.

 The very busy image is the ENSEMBLE SNOW TOTAL. This includes 25 MEMBERS. Yes, the model runs many different versions and if you look closely you can see how that vary.
The only reason I would show you this is to highlight.NOT to look for any snow forecast yet. It is TOO EARLY and any weather showing stuff if purely guess work because of the wider variations father out in time.
What we can do is look at similar patterns and see what they did in the past.  I have, and found these comparisons. These are not forecasts, but an idea of what it possible when we see the collection of global signals:

I have seen the 500mb Jet stream analogs:
Jan 1977 
Jan 1985 
BOTH AMONG THE COLDEST ON RECORD 
PLUS 9 to 12 inches of snow recorded in Baltimore.

Dec 1995 - was followed by the blizzard of early Jan '96 
32.6 inches of snow total that month at BWI.

Dec 2009 - Part of the 3 Blizzard Winter AND 
All Time Snowiest Season = 77 inches of snow.

Jan 2016 = The largest snowstorm on record = 29.2" at BWI.

This is not hype.  This is all based on data both looking ahead and historically. It all has given me the strongest Faith in the Flakes in almost a decade.

#FITF

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I know everyone here picks apart every model run (and I do at times as well), but I’m all about the bigger picture in general these days. And if Justin Berk’s FB post doesn’t have you all fired up after this one…

Looking Beyond This Rainy Weekend....
Let's GEEK OUT a bit about Winter turning WINTRY in the new year
ALL SIGNS Point to a VERY COLD JANUARY- and maybe quite snowy... 
Here is the European Model Ensemble Jet Stream for next Thursday Jan 2, 2025. The start of the colder pattern for the Eastern US. As a high ridge builds for the Western US, it will enhance the pattern.

The temperatures are also the ENSEMBLE for Baltimore's BWI. The cold air may be followed by a second stronger ARCTIC PUSH in the second week of the month. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation chart has a very strong cold signal for this time. Many other global patterns support cold and snow including POSITIVE PNA and MJO in Region 8.

 The very busy image is the ENSEMBLE SNOW TOTAL. This includes 25 MEMBERS. Yes, the model runs many different versions and if you look closely you can see how that vary.
The only reason I would show you this is to highlight.NOT to look for any snow forecast yet. It is TOO EARLY and any weather showing stuff if purely guess work because of the wider variations father out in time.
What we can do is look at similar patterns and see what they did in the past.  I have, and found these comparisons. These are not forecasts, but an idea of what it possible when we see the collection of global signals:

I have seen the 500mb Jet stream analogs:
Jan 1977 
Jan 1985 
BOTH AMONG THE COLDEST ON RECORD 
PLUS 9 to 12 inches of snow recorded in Baltimore.

Dec 1995 - was followed by the blizzard of early Jan '96 
32.6 inches of snow total that month at BWI.

Dec 2009 - Part of the 3 Blizzard Winter AND 
All Time Snowiest Season = 77 inches of snow.

Jan 2016 = The largest snowstorm on record = 29.2" at BWI.

This is not hype.  This is all based on data both looking ahead and historically. It all has given me the strongest Faith in the Flakes in almost a decade.

#FITF

Great post. Where's the image?

[gopper]

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I’m going to trust this with my life and blame you if it doesn’t happen

i got BECS as well on my third try,  nothing on first two spins.  Does that give a 33% chance of a BECS or do I divide 24" by 3?  that would be 8 inches.  I'll take that.

[Heisy]

Same overall look on 00z gfs. Confluence is better situated. HP building in. Not sure what result will be, but this is def the next time frame to look for something imo




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[Heisy]

End of cmc same general idea, much lass amped wave vs gfs. What’s impressive for me is that even with how strong that shortwave is on the GFS the HP is jacked and there’s strong CAD placement. It’s a good sign that the Atlantic is setup well for a snowstorm. I bet we see a lot of ensembles jump on the 5th range in the next 24 hours if this look continues


Yes I realize the shortwave is too amped this run verbatim. Don’t really care about that at this stage.




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[WEATHER53]

Mongolia reloading and send us some moisture please merry happy hollerdaze 

[Ji]

GFS loses Jan 8-9 storm. From blizzard to desert