January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

However

It’s starting to become another replay.  Things look great in the 10+ day and as time approaches the delay begins and the denial follows .  Until and unless there is a serious push like the NHC has perfected, we will continue to get this mish  mash of cover every base examples that really don’t Predict anything 

 

 

But what’s changed?  The transition of the long wave pattern is progressing exactly as guidance suggested. However, many failed, I think, to account for the fact it will take some time to recover from the train wreck the thermal profile will be at the start. Thinking we would immediately shift into deep cold the moment the long wave pattern shifted isn’t realistic. It likely takes a wave or two to pull cold air down. You know this. You often talk about this very progression.  We’re just impatient because it’s been a LONG time. 
 

BTW, are you suggesting you think the models are programmed to intentionally show false output in order to cover more outcomes?  If so I suggest you do some research into how NWP works.  They change at long leads each run because new data changed the most likely outcome. But each run is the output the model thinks is the most likely.  It’s a singular simulation. Ensembles are just a lot of singular simulations with slightly adjusted input. They don’t have motives. 
 

 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops 

I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. 
 

Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom. 

Don’t apologize. Some people here need to toughen up a lot. Seriously. I wonder how some get through life if a few discouraging words about a possible day 10 snowstorm gets them this upset. My god how do they cope when seriously bad things happen?  

[TSSN+]

Euro deep freeze at the end of the run haha. 20s to Florida. 

[Weather Will]

12Z GEFS (6 members of 30 with hits) and EPS (8 members of 50 with hits) pretty close at two weeks with snow chances in January.  With two week to go we will see how it trends....

[DarkSharkWX]

ur best shot for something substantial is when the jet retracts and the regime breaks down, probably mlk weekend time period, but things look good after 1/6

EPS extended the jet less today btw

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z GEFS (6 members of 30 with hits) and EPS (8 members of 50 with hits) pretty close at two weeks with snow chances in January.  With two week to go we will see how it trends....

 

Nothing remarkable there,  just climo.  

I would focus on the trends starting this weekend for Jan 7 th to Jan 15 th. 

 

 

[dailylurker]

Looks like a huge east coast snowstorm at the end of the GFS run. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like a huge east coast snowstorm at the end of the GFS run. 

Yeah the 9th-10th. Euro has it too but its a bit more convoluted/further north.

[CAPE]

The 7-10 period is active on the GEFS. Looks like possibly 3 different events on the mean but some of that is differences with timing among members.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t apologize. Some people here need to toughen up a lot. Seriously. I wonder how some get through life if a few discouraging words about a possible day 10 snowstorm gets them this upset. My god how do they cope when seriously bad things happen?  

You wouldn't expect to hear this from me, but one thing I'm learning about this (haven't mastered it, but slowly getting there): You have to keep the door open. That is, just remember that even if a fantastic setup fails...it's literally okay. Folks, we've been here before. We've had 8 winters of stuff mostly not working out. When it didn't work out, we moaned and groaned for awhile (understandably because we're weenies who really love snow) but then Spring came and we all moved on. So just remember that any potential "fail" that ya fear...if it were to happen there's still another side of it where we're good, man.  

So for times like now where a future pattern holds potential...keep that "but even if it doesn't we'll be fine and can just punt until whenever" door open. That way you can just observe what it produces without having a meltdown about every little fail scenario. Yeah the fails suck but listen if it goes south, just punt it and disengage. Best thing to do!

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You wouldn't expect to hear this from me, but one thing I'm learning about this (haven't mastered it, but slowly getting there): You have to keep the door open. That is, just remember that even if a fantastic setup fails...it's literally okay. Folks, we've been here before. We've had 8 winters of stuff mostly not working out. When it didn't work out, we moaned and groaned for awhile (understandably because we're weenies who really love snow) but then Spring came and we all moved on. So just remember that any potential "fail" that ya fear...if it were to happen there's still another side of it where we're good, man.  

So for times like now where a future pattern holds potential...keep that "but even if it doesn't we'll be fine and can just punt until whenever" door open. That way you can just observe what it produces without having a meltdown about every little fail scenario. Yeah the fails suck but listen if it goes south, just punt it and disengage. Best thing to do!

Everyone does realize what we say here has no effect on the actual weather. It’s just analysis. Who cares what anyone says. It’s what actually happens that matters.

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies keeps it below normal through the rest of January.  Best 7 day snow means are the period ending Jan. 16 and the 27th.

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^this time last year the long range EPS snowfall probs were near bupkis. Glad to see we have a chance at //something//.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^this time last year the long range EPS snowfall probs were near bupkis. Glad to see we have a chance at //something//.

I remember that. We did see some cold coming after two powerful cutters, but did not see the 2 SECS until about 4-5 days prior, and even then they were progged to hit to the north of us.

I think something similar is going to happen here. We won't see storms coming until the cold actually gets here, and only then we will be tracking threats, if any. 

Liking what the ens are showing, but I'm in wait and see mode. Get the cold here first, then track.

[wkd]

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops 

I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. 
 

Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom. 

Care to share anything not too personal?  Looks like you have a job with a great outfit.

[CAPE]

Big picture reminder-

Of all the indices we track, historically a -AO, especially when combined with a -NAO, correlates to higher probability for cold and increased chances for snow for the DC area. All guidance forecasts -AO/NAO in addition to a neutral/+PNA and -EPO for early Jan. No guarantees as we always need some luck with timing, but this gives us a hell of a chance to achieve the desired outcome, entering prime time snow climo.

 

[bncho]

Snowstorm on the 9th for the GFS. Always nice to see the OPs reflect the ensembles.
 

[snowfan]

Active hh run on the GFS w cold nearby. Certainly enough to remain intrigued. 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Big picture reminder-

Of all the indices we track, historically a -AO, especially when combined with a -NAO, correlates to higher probability for cold and increased chances for snow for the DC area. All guidance forecasts -AO/NAO in addition to a neutral/+PNA and -EPO for early Jan. No guarantees as we always need some luck with timing, but this gives us a hell of a chance to achieve the desired outcome, entering prime time snow climo.

 

These charts are a great illustration of the dichotomy between the OP and ENS of each model past D5. There's wild swings in the OP, the the ENS are pretty lockstep.

[Eskimo Joe]

18Z GEFS has 70% probs of 1" snowfall by Jan 9th for BWI, DCA, IAD. 90% probs for MRB.

 

 

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18Z GEFS has 70% probs of 1" snowfall by Jan 9th for BWI, DCA, IAD. 90% probs for MRB.

Please send the map.

[adelphi_sky]

9 hours ago, WVclimo said:

I mentioned it the other day, but that early January 1970 cold snap was really frigid.  I have some great memories of sledding on snow as hard as concrete.

Here was the peak of it at BWI

December 1963 is on that list too and finished around -10 for the month.

It would be so cool to get highs into the single digits! Pun intended!

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[bncho]

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.

https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

[schinz]

Coating to 1"

 

[Kevin Reilly]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.

https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

 Got 3-5"

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, schinz said:

Coating to 1"

 

That might be right if I get 3-5" up here LOL

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.

https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

You have to be a teacher??

[bncho]

The Holy Wheel will decide your fates.

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.

https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

I’m going to trust this with my life and blame you if it doesn’t happen