January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Kevin Reilly]

I see phrases such as:

 

We are bipolar

We can get stiffed like every year

Be patient let the pattern play out

Better bone dry cold then warm and wet at least we have the most important player on the field

 

One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work.

[Heisy]

6z GFS created that event on the 3rd from the wave thats around cali on the gif below. One positive is the 12z icon has that same wave. Euro still nothing…




.

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work.

What? lol 

[IronTy]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What? lol 

We've reached the phase of sports analogies and even employee vacation hours to explain any model irregularities.  We still aren't blaming it on religion so we haven't gone all in just yet.  

[TSSN+]

42 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We've reached the phase of sports analogies and even employee vacation hours to explain any model irregularities.  We still aren't blaming it on religion so we haven't gone all in just yet.  

Heat miser has gone rogue and has taken snow miser territory all the way to Maryland. 

[bncho]

Stop panicking, y'all. You can't live run by run from the OPs. That's a recipe for disaster. Check the ensembles.

Though the ensembles show dryness, gambling on precip has a much higher ROI than gambling on cold. Sure, it'd be depressing if we don't get an inch of snow but look at the upcoming pattern - it's the best in years. Even if we do just get cold it shows that this area still can have a winter. Think about the torch December was expected to be. Now we finish somewhat normal in temperatures. I think NYC almost got 3" of snow as well!

Stop nitpicking, appreciate the pattern, and once we're 120 hours from the 4th then we can get worried if we don't see snow.

[Lowershoresadness]

13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We've reached the phase of sports analogies and even employee vacation hours to explain any model irregularities.  We still aren't blaming it on religion so we haven't gone all in just yet.  

Jesus was a snow weenie. After he turned water into wine he turned rain into snow for the children of Bethlehem 

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Heat miser has gone rouge and has taken snow miser territory all the way to Maryland. 

He went "rouge"?  He's red in the face?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I see phrases such as:

 

We are bipolar

We can get stiffed like every year

Be patient let the pattern play out

Better bone dry cold then warm and wet at least we have the most important player on the field

 

One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work.

Someone has been hitting the egg nog too hard. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Gfs with a quick hit on the second

[Ephesians2]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Gfs with a quick hit on the second

Looks like 1-3" with fairly marginal temperatures. 

[TSSN+]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

He went "rouge"?  He's red in the face?

I mean he is isn’t he? Haha 

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Looks like 1-3" with fairly marginal temperatures. 

yeah it's like 37 when it's snowing - this might be a generous read

[WVclimo]

12Z GFS loses the -NAO post-200 hrs.  Then comes up with a snowstorm for the beaches on 1/9.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

12Z GFS loses the -NAO post-200 hrs.  Then comes up with a snowstorm for the beaches on 1/9.

When the -NAO fades, that's when we usually get a snowstorm. Pretty typical progression scenario

[VA Mad Man]

The GFS has been hitting the egg nog too hard

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I see phrases such as:

 

We are bipolar

We can get stiffed like every year

Be patient let the pattern play out

Better bone dry cold then warm and wet at least we have the most important player on the field

 

One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work.

However

It’s starting to become another replay.  Things look great in the 10+ day and as time approaches the delay begins and the denial follows .  Until and unless there is a serious push like the NHC has perfected, we will continue to get this mish  mash of cover every base examples that really don’t Predict anything 

 

 

[87storms]

TT has been struggling to load for me today. Probably a good thing.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

TT has been struggling to load for me today. Probably a good thing.

It must be getting ready for a big load, which could be a good thing. 

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I see phrases such as:

 

We are bipolar

We can get stiffed like every year

Be patient let the pattern play out

Better bone dry cold then warm and wet at least we have the most important player on the field

 

One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work.

Kevin, just a heads up. The people who work the models are absolutely not completely off for the Holidays and that’s also not how NWP works. Models will work the same year round, regardless of holidays. Data input is not done manually. The team at NCEP are rock stars at making sure data assimilation is working properly and the data gets out to the world. 

[CAPE]

12z GFS and Euro with snow on the 9th.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS and Euro with snow on the 9th.

We might not have a choice, but to accept a snowstorm during that time frame.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Kevin, just a heads up. The people who work the models are absolutely not completely off for the Holidays and that’s also not how NWP works. Models will work the same year round, regardless of holidays. Data input is not done manually. The team at NCEP are rock stars at making sure data assimilation is working properly and the data gets out to the world. 

That post really did make me wonder if people think NWS/NOAA/NCEP just closes down for the holidays  

[MillvilleWx]

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops 

I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. 
 

Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom. 

[Conway7305]

Nice to see 12z Euro and GFS agree on some type of fantasy storm 1/9.   2016 was sniffed out early. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

12Z GFS loses the -NAO post-200 hrs.  Then comes up with a snowstorm for the beaches on 1/9.

That's a signal for a pretty widespread event if you ask me at this range.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops 

I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. 
 

Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom. 

Always appreciate your input. We all strive to have a cup 1/2 full mentality. With my recent loss of a loved one,  I too might be looking less excited about snow potential and other things in life too. 

 

Recent modeling still looks good for us snow lovers. At least we are I the game. I take that any day. 

[rjvanals]

GFS is on it's own for the borderline threat on 1/2 but both the GFS and Euro show threats on 1/7 and 1/9 so hopefully some quality tracking coming up 

[NorthArlington101]

EPS still says shut the door til 1/6. 1/6 has a fairly quality signal but not a lot of immediate support for the 1/9 idea. Looks cold and fairly dry at long long range. 

[Chris78]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops 

I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. 
 

Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom. 

Thanks for your valuable input.

It's hard to not be 3/4 glass empty when looking at snow chances.

Maybe my memory is fading but  growing up in the 80s and 90s in Northern Fredeick County it seemed a normal occurrence was a 3-6 " snow followed by a mix then rain then dry slot. 

It seemed to happen several times a season. Now we're just begging for any kind of scrapes we can get. Getting 2" is such a big deal now and seems that the stars need to align perfectly for that to happen.