January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Looks like that wave around the 3rd is the first shot at something, but the trough axis isn’t great and spacing is meh. At least so far. However, that wave then potentially sets up our potential confluence for whatever else rolls off the PAC.

This is fun to look at lol..




.

Clear developing split flow may take away.  I think we need a split flow to make things interesting.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Last of the weather porn...let's see how the ens look shortly

 

[Kevin Reilly]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last of the weather porn...let's see how the ens look shortly

 

Love the +PNA hello old friend where have you been??

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Love the +PNA hello old friend where have you been??

Ridge bridge?

[WVclimo]

Recent runs of the globals say those historically cold analogs like Jan 1977 may have been on to something.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m just curious, wasn’t 4” the criteria for a winter storm warning here before they changed it to 5”? Or has it always been 5”? My memory isn’t what it used to be. 

Yes with the caveat there was a time constraint. But not sure if it was 4” in 12 or 24 hours. But in general everyone considered 4” warning criteria back then. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes with the caveat there was a time constraint. But not sure if it was 4” in 12 or 24 hours. But in general everyone considered 4” warning criteria back then. 

The 12 and 24 hour criteria difference for snow and ice are gone. It's just one metric now.

[brooklynwx99]

wow. 7th continues to have a very cohesive signal

[brooklynwx99]

4th also looks better now

[Ralph Wiggum]

Gefs also secs-y for the 6th-10th. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

[Eskimo Joe]

49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last of the weather porn...let's see how the ens look shortly

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

4th also looks better now

If we get the lead  system on the 4th to somehow work out, what a bonus that would be as we enter prime climo and a loaded pattern right after.

[NorthArlington101]

Everything looks fantastic on the ens for an active period… clear we’ve got a couple windows. All we need is the snow median on the ens to start ticking up

[Ralph Wiggum]

Run to run...better pna axis, diggier sws under the nao

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we get the lead  system on the 4th to somehow work out, what a bonus that would be as we enter prime climo and a loaded pattern right after.

It would be like the days of old.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’m just curious, wasn’t 4” the criteria for a winter storm warning here before they changed it to 5”? Or has it always been 5”? My memory isn’t what it used to be. 

 

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I think it used to be.

 

1 hour ago, stormy said:

The warning criteria used to be 4" or more.

Yes it was.  @psuhoffman is correct.  A lot of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast WFOs had their warning criteria amounts increased after the time constraints were removed

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last of the weather porn...let's see how the ens look shortly

 

[Scraff]

I didn’t ask Hanukkah Harry for snow porn, but damn! The last few hours in here…the man delivered! 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 12 and 24 hour criteria difference for snow and ice are gone. It's just one metric now.

I meant when it was 4”. Sorry 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I meant when it was 4”. Sorry 

All good buddy. Merry Christmas, hope we jackpot in Jan and Feb! 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All good buddy. Merry Christmas, hope we jackpot in Jan and Feb! 

The were due index is through the roof. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last of the weather porn...let's see how the ens look shortly

 

This is unbelievable. You guys are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Overdue!

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow. 7th continues to have a very cohesive signal

Busy times ahead.  So much more exciting than a shit the blinds pattern that you just know you shouldn’t even look for the next 2 weeks.

[bncho]

Models haven't kicked the can, rather, they've been showing a stronger and stronger signal. GEFS was apparently on crack for a few days but it actually got its act together. Everything is in the right place at the right time. MJO will be in phase 7-8-1, -EPO, -AO, -NAO, +PNA (and guidance has its axis more west). I mean, I'm not saying it'll be a historic January by any means, but surely we can get at least one 3-5" event. Maybe we can even get a SECS or a MECS if we are lucky.

This could be our best January in a while. No shit the blinds in sight for a good couple of weeks.
 

EPS signal for 4th:

EPS signal for 8th-9th:

GEFS signal for 4th:

GEFS signal for 8th-9th:

[nj2va]

Yes, an OP run but WOOF

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The were due index is through the roof. 

[clskinsfan]

[Eskimo Joe]

Going to be honest, we're trying for our first Garrett County mesonet site in Bittinger. It would be great if we can get the concrete poured 12/30 and the equipment install finished on 1/6. That would give everyone on this site additional surface data in western Maryland. Hopefully we can squeeze this in before things get snowy.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Going to be honest, we're trying for our first Garrett County mesonet site in Bittinger. It would be great if we can get the concrete poured 12/30 and the equipment install finished on 1/6. That would give everyone on this site additional surface data in western Maryland. Hopefully we can squeeze this in before things get snowy.

Going to be honest. I honestly dont care about your project. Snow takes precedent.