Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....


Weather Will
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS masterclass

IMG_0692.thumb.gif.19143c8094823cfd7e37a211990e35a9.gif

Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up with a triple phaser....probably would cut but point is there are numerous possibilities from minor to major.

  • Like 2
  • yes 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up.

Good times ahead ralphie. Both 18z gfs and
Euro take a few waves to break down the ridge and are both close around that wave on 4-5th. If pattern plays out how it looks now we should get some snow. Merry Christmas/happy holidays


.
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.
ETA: Puny to him anway.

We don’t want or need an overbearing block. Semi “weak” to moderate as well as decaying blocks have produced many of our biggest snowstorms in years past. It’s what couples with that block that’s important. A favorable PAC / - EPO / -NAO and the presence of a southern jet is a huge signal for our neck of the woods. Subject to change of course, but this is truly the best setup we’ve seen on models roughly 10 days out in several years.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event.  I'll take 5 inches and be happy.

ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals.

GEM is blind to any threat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stormy said:

The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event.  I'll take 5 inches and be happy.

ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals.

GEM is blind to any threat.

That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.

ETA: Puny to him anway.

Look at these puny blocking signals

IMG_6120.gif.02ee8501bdf9765a13fb7aa858d2cddd.gif
IMG_6121.gif.7b94428d1e6bdf974ba46e2a10f15e45.gif

IMG_6119.gif.9fbaabe3898d54cebc0b37a1ba8cfc19.gif

We don’t necessarily need some 2010 -3stdv omega block to get a snowstorm. Actually that’s not the most common way, simply because they are so rare. And sometimes they lead to suppression.
 

what we do need is enough of a epo/pna/ao/nao combo (it’s all a degree trade off between them) to get a deep eastern trough that extends into the Atlantic centered south of our latitude.  The pattern on all the guidance right now looks totally fine to me for delivering the chance at a snowstorm. Now we just wait to see if it’s right and then if we get lucky with wave spacing. That’s it imo. 

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...