frd Posted Wednesday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:59 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It would help if it was actually located at 50-50. As modeled it is displaced too far SW. I believe @psuhoffman had mentioned these very anomalous type blocks may weaken and displace faster than the model thinks. However, looking at the indices the block is supported, so patience is required. Long range models show this feature heading more NE in time, coinciding, it appears, to a rising NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Wednesday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:02 PM 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Too much overthinking it there lol thats fine but why is it models have such a hard time not just long range I understand but very short range? I also feel like a lot of people feel how you do but I feel thats an easy answer to give when the question may not have an answer lol is it to much for models to be better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted Wednesday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:06 PM 8 minutes ago, Ruin said: things I dont understand 1 people say you cant track storms a week out but the mets all track storms a week out and they hint at something just to hint at it. if its wrong they dont mention it again or if its right they report on it for ratings I get that. What I dont get how models can be so wrong 1-2-3 days out at times like how does a low go from the east coast with a massive push of moisture and cold only then 1 model run go to a apps lake cutter and the storm be all rain in the 50s? What info was put into that model run to make it go to one extreme to the other I wish we were told such things. 2 how since the model upgrade in 2011-14 have these models gotten worse imo I know other do feel this way. We have feed back errors and or just all out whacky solution. I remember one storm from 2021 it was said it was going to be pushed to far south due to the cold air then what do you know the cold air vanished. The low moved west of us into western ohio this was said not to happen due to a whacky solution but it happenend. am I complaining sure but Its 2025 and we cant even get a storm 12-24 hours out let alone a week out correct. I dunno how many times a storm is 12 hours away and we just hear its to soon to know we have to wait and see. Also if some one can direct me to a site where it actually shows the accuracy percentage of the models over the years that would be awesome. Like some say the euro is more accurate but how accurate is it 40% 30% etc 52 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Wednesday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:10 PM New thread is pinned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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