North Balti Zen Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We may do better on Friday than Monday. Years and years of this crap now up this way, it’s so tiring to see unfold over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s .2” more for your backyard than 12z! You can leave for vacation anytime now… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On the 1 hand we need the 50/50 strong enough to thwart cutters as was showing up previously on modeling. But now, it's so strong and slow moving that it's shredding decent systems (look at all the snow west of the mts every model keeps showing.) The Atlantic is backed up like a morning after a T-bone steak. I think the best case, which we have no control over, is a weaker 50/50 because we still need it, just not as strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I'll be curious to see if the GEFS gives us more snow than the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I'll be curious to see if the GEFS gives us more snow than the operational It’s better - in pretty close line with the EURO really, just slightly less wet. A hair south but really just noise. 11 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1874549701657412001 An interesting observation with the north pacific heights by day 13-14-15 from the latest EPS... The blocking reloads and is poleward only further west. This will cause the entire lower 48 pattern to essentially step back west a few clicks. Aka the cold and stormy pattern reloads I suspect driven more by the low frequency background state. I tried to show you here on this gif. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Like a wall! The precip. cant' get across the mountains ................................................................ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, stormy said: Like a wall! The precip. cant' get across the mountains ................................................................ Gefs is better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, stormy said: Like a wall! The precip. cant' get across the mountains ................................................................ Hey, did you know Prince died? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I think it's a good time to say, "onto the king Euro." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All the hemming and hawing over the GFS deterministic output all while the GEFS has improved, for most run to run for the past 8 cycles lol I'm not saying we're going to get clobbered or that we're going to miss. I'm saying the trends are still decent for the area despite the deterministic outputs. I'm not worried at the moment. I'll let you know if I am! If there was anyone that should keep close tabs on the setup for shifts, it's NE MD just due to the nature of the confluence. Still could get snow up there, but it's likely to be greater further west and south. I have family near where I grew up, so I'm watching that area closely. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Based only on a rising NAO trend reversal the best potential would be between Jan 10 th and Jan 16 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: On the 1 hand we need the 50/50 strong enough to thwart cutters as was showing up previously on modeling. But now, it's so strong and slow moving that it's shredding decent systems (look at all the snow west of the mts every model keeps showing.) The Atlantic is backed up like a morning after a T-bone steak. I think the best case, which we have no control over, is a weaker 50/50 because we still need it, just not as strong. It would help if it was actually located at 50-50. As modeled it is displaced too far SW. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That’s fucking awful. It's perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: All the hemming and hawing over the GFS deterministic output all while the GEFS has improved, for most run to run for the past 8 cycles lol I'm not saying we're going to get clobbered or that we're going to miss. I'm saying the trends are still decent for the area despite the deterministic outputs. I'm not worried at the moment. I'll let you know if I am! If there was anyone that should keep close tabs on the setup for shifts, it's NE MD just due to the nature of the confluence. Still could get snow up there, but it's likely to be greater further west and south. I have family near where I grew up, so I'm watching that area closely. Good post bro. Definitely shows improvement every run!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Way out to the 15th but the GFS is actually pretty close to a hit, so even if both Monday and next weekend fails we still have another shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Now we wait for 18z euro! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It would help if it was actually located at 50-50. As modeled it is displaced too far SW. That too. Anything to get it off the Massachusetts coast a little faster or weaken it some. We're sorta left relying on the old model biases of strengthening blocking too much at this range. Not a great position to be in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, bncho said: I think it's a good time to say, "onto the king Euro." Agreed!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 things I dont understand 1 people say you cant track storms a week out but the mets all track storms a week out and they hint at something just to hint at it. if its wrong they dont mention it again or if its right they report on it for ratings I get that. What I dont get how models can be so wrong 1-2-3 days out at times like how does a low go from the east coast with a massive push of moisture and cold only then 1 model run go to a apps lake cutter and the storm be all rain in the 50s? What info was put into that model run to make it go to one extreme to the other I wish we were told such things. 2 how since the model upgrade in 2011-14 have these models gotten worse imo I know other do feel this way. We have feed back errors and or just all out whacky solution. I remember one storm from 2021 it was said it was going to be pushed to far south due to the cold air then what do you know the cold air vanished. The low moved west of us into western ohio this was said not to happen due to a whacky solution but it happenend. am I complaining sure but Its 2025 and we cant even get a storm 12-24 hours out let alone a week out correct. I dunno how many times a storm is 12 hours away and we just hear its to soon to know we have to wait and see. Also if some one can direct me to a site where it actually shows the accuracy percentage of the models over the years that would be awesome. Like some say the euro is more accurate but how accurate is it 40% 30% etc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ruin said: things I dont understand 1 people say you cant track storms a week out but the mets all track storms a week out and they hint at something just to hint at it. if its wrong they dont mention it again or if its right they report on it for ratings I get that. What I dont get how models can be so wrong 1-2-3 days out at times like how does a low go from the east coast with a massive push of moisture and cold only then 1 model run go to a apps lake cutter and the storm be all rain in the 50s? What info was put into that model run to make it go to one extreme to the other I wish we were told such things. 2 how since the model upgrade in 2011-14 have these models gotten worse imo I know other do feel this way. We have feed back errors and or just all out whacky solution. I remember one storm from 2021 it was said it was going to be pushed to far south due to the cold air then what do you know the cold air vanished only to move west of us into western ohio this was said not to happen due to a whacky solution but it happenend. am I complaining sure but Its 2025 and we cant even get a storm 12-24 hours out let alone a week out correct. I dunno how many times a storm is 12 hours away and we just hear its to soon to know we have to wait and see. Also if some one can direct me to a site where it actually shows the accuracy percentage of the models over the years that would be awesome. Like some say the euro is more accurate but how accurate is it 40% 30% etc Too much overthinking it there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It would help if it was actually located at 50-50. As modeled it is displaced too far SW. I believe @psuhoffman had mentioned these very anomalous type blocks may weaken and displace faster than the model thinks. However, looking at the indices the block is supported, so patience is required. Long range models show this feature heading more NE in time, coinciding, it appears, to a rising NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Too much overthinking it there lol thats fine but why is it models have such a hard time not just long range I understand but very short range? I also feel like a lot of people feel how you do but I feel thats an easy answer to give when the question may not have an answer lol is it to much for models to be better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Ruin said: things I dont understand 1 people say you cant track storms a week out but the mets all track storms a week out and they hint at something just to hint at it. if its wrong they dont mention it again or if its right they report on it for ratings I get that. What I dont get how models can be so wrong 1-2-3 days out at times like how does a low go from the east coast with a massive push of moisture and cold only then 1 model run go to a apps lake cutter and the storm be all rain in the 50s? What info was put into that model run to make it go to one extreme to the other I wish we were told such things. 2 how since the model upgrade in 2011-14 have these models gotten worse imo I know other do feel this way. We have feed back errors and or just all out whacky solution. I remember one storm from 2021 it was said it was going to be pushed to far south due to the cold air then what do you know the cold air vanished. The low moved west of us into western ohio this was said not to happen due to a whacky solution but it happenend. am I complaining sure but Its 2025 and we cant even get a storm 12-24 hours out let alone a week out correct. I dunno how many times a storm is 12 hours away and we just hear its to soon to know we have to wait and see. Also if some one can direct me to a site where it actually shows the accuracy percentage of the models over the years that would be awesome. Like some say the euro is more accurate but how accurate is it 40% 30% etc 52 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 New thread is pinned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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