January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Ralph Wiggum]

So if the Jan 6 threat shits the bed, that  bodes better for Heisy's HECS on the 11th right?

[mitchnick]

So tiring and frustrating. 

[stormtracker]

Ok, I was mostly right...it's wetter, but for areas just to the south.  Up here we just about stay the same

[87storms]

If it was just a little bit further north it actually would be a pretty good run, has a better snow max but is just a bit too far south. 

Actually a closed h5 low this time once it gets into the Plains, though could be noise. Regardless, I’m ok with this run.

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

So tiring and frustrating. 

You know this is how we do.   Gonna be like this prob until Saturday or something

[wawarriors4]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The wetter storm cancels out the faster/souther mostly. A better run… kinda forgot how bad 12z was. 
 

 

Very acceptable, but I live in Stafford. This has a between EZF and DCA bullseye feel to it, but I’m prepared to be screwed in some way like usual.

[stormtracker]

Ok, well that was anitclimactic.  Looks like a hold...sort of?

Anyway, I'm now looking for the Jan 10-11 thing.    Sigh...I wanna be able to post the F--Ks word.  And no, not that one.

[Terpeast]

Looks like the typical GFS swings/noise to me. Yes it’s faster, but the NE trough/confluence also moves east accordingly. Almost like they’re dancing in sync. 

Qpf amounts won’t be figured out until the meso models have their day with it. 

[Ruin]

if this does happen and this storm fizzles out like I heard mants mets want. I keep hearing now its going to weaken the farther east it goes first time hearing that. But we all know what they will say we dodge a bullet with this one and cheer and clap on tv. 

[Weather Will]

At 18Z looks like low tracked further south on both the ICON and the GFS (WB).

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

if this does happen and this storm fizzles out like I heard mants mets want. I keep hearing now its going to weaken the farther east it goes first time hearing that. But we all know what they will say we dodge a bullet with this one and cheer and clap on tv. 

Exactly 

[Weather Will]

I'm no expert, but there is a lot of confusion in this thread.  It is my understanding that we want the confluence to shift NE so the low does not get torn apart but the low must also track across VA not southern NC.

[DDweatherman]

See you guys at 0z for a new set of solutions. 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Very acceptable, but I live in Stafford. This has a between EZF and DCA bullseye feel to it, but I’m prepared to be screwed in some way like usual.

It’ll correct north a tick. Culpeper/ N Stafford /Quantico bullseye.  Watch it happen

[BristowWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

See you guys at 0z for a new set of solutions. 

18z Euro.  Don’t forget that gem of a model.  If that’s souther then we’ll…you know

[understudyhero]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

18z Euro.  Don’t forget that gem of a model.  If that’s souther then we’ll…you know

It always trends north then?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

18z Euro.  Don’t forget that gem of a model.  If that’s souther then we’ll…you know

I mean it doesn’t matter when it comes back north in a run or two lol. Euro went south then came back north. Honestly till Saturday who cares as long as the storm is still in the vicinity 

[stormtracker]

SO for the next potential, looks like the shortwaves are all out of synch vs 12z.   Players are still there, but kinda hard to see that they'll pull together even for the southern folks....waiting and watching...

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS at 7am Monday compared to EURO at 12Z.  We need the GFS track to be wrong and shift further north.

[stormtracker]

All these players on the field, regardless if there's no storm, is kinda exciting.  You gotta thing somethings gonna go boom in future runs

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

It always trends north then?

No not always.  Confluence is important.  Stronger shortwave could help too.  It’s hard to say what will happen.  Goal posts are narrowing a tad.  The concern is drying shredding as it heads east.  Who knows but it beats our normal punch in the onions we are used to

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

All these players on the field, regardless if there's no storm, is kinda exciting.  You gotta thing somethings gonna go boom in future runs

And what I like the most (amateur opinion) is that the gulf seems to be kinda open. Every run you're seeing waves come out of there. If it keeps that up, when the block relaxes then maybe...? 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

All these players on the field, regardless if there's no storm, is kinda exciting.  You gotta thing somethings gonna go boom in future runs

That GFS run is also cold as heck next week after our snow. Snow should stick around.

 

[mob1]

Now that the current stoms is exiting, we'll see if models shift north a bit as they often have the maritime lows linger a bit too long only to move it out quicker over time. 

I'll be in Baltimore next week so hopefully we see at least a couple of inches. 

[stormtracker]

Gulf low firing up, but hard to see how it turns the corner at this point.  Again, regardless there seems to be a ton of potential in future runs.

[MDScienceTeacher]

11 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

It always trends north then?

It’s not a guarantee.  You have to look at the upper level flow.  This is the 500mb height anomaly at the time the storm is approaching our area.  Notice the sw to ne lines flowing directly over the mid Atlantic and the large low pressure over the Canadian maritimes.  This is the main feature that will determine the storm track.   If that feature is not there, then I would agree that we would see the typical north shift with the gfs as we approach game time.  

But since this feature is so dominant in this set up.. you have to at least give the gfs some credence with the suppressed/ southern look. 

 

[stormtracker]

The south's HECS is gone.  H5 is just sloppy.  Storm gets shunted S and E.  12z was MUCH better at H5.    Oh well...only 500 more runs until the event.   See yinz at 0z!

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gulf low firing up, but hard to see how it turns the corner at this point.  Again, regardless there seems to be a ton of potential in future runs.

So much energy flying around out West, there's no chance the GFS truly sniffs out the UL evolution until closer to this weekend. Chess pieces in place though...

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The south's HECS is gone.  H5 is just sloppy.  Storm gets shunted S and E.  12z was MUCH better at H5.    Oh well...only 500 more runs until the event.   See yinz at 0z!

You mean it's not going to snow 24" in Augusta, GA?

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The south's HECS is gone.  H5 is just sloppy.  Storm gets shunted S and E.  12z was MUCH better at H5.    Oh well...only 500 more runs until the event.   See yinz at 0z!

Its so close to a phase that could've brought it up the coast too but the NS kicks it instead.