DDweatherman Posted Wednesday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:21 PM 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 15Z NBM Well, these two maps don’t correlate whatsoever huh? 20-1 ratios in the north I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Wednesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:27 PM 26 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Pikesville. But will travel. That was a fun meetup in Columbia. That definitely needs to happen again for a forthcoming storm. Maybe not this one, but the next one? Sapwood again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Wednesday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:30 PM 26 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You know what time it is Hammer time? Actually since the holidays I need those hammer pants so LFG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Wednesday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:38 PM 42 minutes ago, mappy said: It’s been known to happen But it's been a little while, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Wednesday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:44 PM 25 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Well, these two maps don’t correlate whatsoever huh? 20-1 ratios in the north I guess. FWIW, the inputs to the NBM QPF and snowfall are not identical. Definitely a source of confusion. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:46 PM 1 minute ago, high risk said: FWIW, the inputs to the NBM QPF and snowfall and not identical. Definitely a source of confusion. I just came here to mention this as well. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Wednesday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:48 PM 4 minutes ago, high risk said: FWIW, the inputs to the NBM QPF and snowfall are not identical. Definitely a source of confusion. Is qpf more reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Is qpf more reliable? Let's leave it at "they're different". The QPF uses some addition inputs that aren't great, but they are bias corrected, which helps - they certainly add more spread. The NBM QPF also heavily weights the WPC QPF (prior to forecaster adjustment) beyond Day 2, and that is not hooked up to the NBM winter products. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Is qpf more reliable? QPF and snow maps aren't very reliable outside of 72 hours in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:04 PM 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Let's leave it at "they're different". The QPF uses some addition inputs that aren't great, but they are bias corrected, which helps - they certainly add more spread. The NBM QPF also heavily weights the WPC QPF (prior to forecaster adjustment) beyond Day 2, and that is not hooked up to the NBM winter products. Yeah, and considering the time frame of expected impact and spread, I'm sure my colleague went pretty conservative on QPF which is one of the reasons the output is lighter than what most of the recent deterministic have shown. I will say the current output on the snow is a good sign and is within that general grand ensemble mean from the cluster analysis depicted on the 12z suite. I think 3-6" with as much as 8" or 9" is plausible in the setup as shown. Still time for adjustments in either direction but remain cautiously optimistic. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Wednesday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:07 PM 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah, and considering the time frame of expected impact and spread, I'm sure my colleague went pretty conservative on QPF which is one of the reasons the output is lighter than what most of the recent deterministic have shown. I will say the current output on the snow is a good sign and is within that general grand ensemble mean from the cluster analysis depicted on the 12z suite. I think 3-6" with as much as 8" or 9" is plausible in the setup as shown. Still time for adjustments in either direction but remain cautiously optimistic. I've been telling friends and colleagues the potential for 3-6+ but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:09 PM It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:12 PM 2 minutes ago, bncho said: It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. I can live with that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Wednesday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:14 PM 1 minute ago, bncho said: It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. I think the bullseye will lie just south of DC between HEF and EZF. That’s my guess if we are guessing. One of the smart Mets said the model output is more stable with a -NAO…confluence is real it seems.. shred city PHL in that scenario. But who knows I do like where I sit 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Wednesday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:40 PM 28 minutes ago, bncho said: It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. Bullseye likely just N of the M/D line after the usual N trend over the final 72 hrs. Someone posted an individual ens member here earlier that will be close to the final, so it's certainly within the realm of possibility. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted Wednesday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:51 PM Genuinely hilarious that the last 3 people to postulate "where the bullseye will be" scenarios all just happen to live where they think the bullseye will be. 9 1 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:54 PM 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Genuinely hilarious that the last 3 people to postulate "where the bullseye will be" scenarios all just happen to live where they think the bullseye will be. I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:57 PM 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. Take a hike 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 09:03 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:03 PM WB 12Z NAM, watching the trends on the confluence shifting NE. Hour 84 at 12Z compared to hour 78 at 18Z. Continues to tick NE a little faster which is good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:04 PM Heres a couple of very reliable forecast maps that I feel confident in lol ... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Wednesday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:08 PM 13 minutes ago, bncho said: I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 09:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:10 PM 15 minutes ago, bncho said: I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. You still drinkin?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM icon a bit juicier at 78 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM Just now, Shad said: icon a bit juicier at 78 That's a nice start!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM 12z euro Ai almost turns the corner with the Jan 10-11 potential event, as is it crushes the southern mid Atlantic. This one has HECS potential if everything happened perfectly for us. As is it is currently favoring the SE, but we’ll see. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:13 PM 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 12z euro Ai almost turns the corner with the Jan 10-11 potential event, as is it crushes the southern mid Atlantic. This one has HECS potential if everything happened perfectly for us. As is it is currently favoring the SE, but we’ll see . I like where it is right now. Just south gives it time to trend northward like it has been doing the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM icon coming in faster.....appears to be a bit south of the 12z run at this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM Also will add, models currently want to take the southern wave and cut it off under the ridge, but if that can stay far enough E and phase with the incoming Northern Stream shortwave it will increase the odds of getting this thing up the coast. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Wednesday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:15 PM Yep, ICON souther and even faster than the Euro now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:19 PM Doesn’t looks south, it’s just way drier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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