MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Let's leave it at "they're different". The QPF uses some addition inputs that aren't great, but they are bias corrected, which helps - they certainly add more spread. The NBM QPF also heavily weights the WPC QPF (prior to forecaster adjustment) beyond Day 2, and that is not hooked up to the NBM winter products. Yeah, and considering the time frame of expected impact and spread, I'm sure my colleague went pretty conservative on QPF which is one of the reasons the output is lighter than what most of the recent deterministic have shown. I will say the current output on the snow is a good sign and is within that general grand ensemble mean from the cluster analysis depicted on the 12z suite. I think 3-6" with as much as 8" or 9" is plausible in the setup as shown. Still time for adjustments in either direction but remain cautiously optimistic. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah, and considering the time frame of expected impact and spread, I'm sure my colleague went pretty conservative on QPF which is one of the reasons the output is lighter than what most of the recent deterministic have shown. I will say the current output on the snow is a good sign and is within that general grand ensemble mean from the cluster analysis depicted on the 12z suite. I think 3-6" with as much as 8" or 9" is plausible in the setup as shown. Still time for adjustments in either direction but remain cautiously optimistic. I've been telling friends and colleagues the potential for 3-6+ but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, bncho said: It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. I can live with that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, bncho said: It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. I think the bullseye will lie just south of DC between HEF and EZF. That’s my guess if we are guessing. One of the smart Mets said the model output is more stable with a -NAO…confluence is real it seems.. shred city PHL in that scenario. But who knows I do like where I sit 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 28 minutes ago, bncho said: It's too early to say anything, but I think the Euro doesn't shift much farther north and DC is the south side of the bullseye and Baltimore is dead-on. Bullseye likely just N of the M/D line after the usual N trend over the final 72 hrs. Someone posted an individual ens member here earlier that will be close to the final, so it's certainly within the realm of possibility. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Genuinely hilarious that the last 3 people to postulate "where the bullseye will be" scenarios all just happen to live where they think the bullseye will be. 9 1 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Genuinely hilarious that the last 3 people to postulate "where the bullseye will be" scenarios all just happen to live where they think the bullseye will be. I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. Take a hike 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 WB 12Z NAM, watching the trends on the confluence shifting NE. Hour 84 at 12Z compared to hour 78 at 18Z. Continues to tick NE a little faster which is good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Heres a couple of very reliable forecast maps that I feel confident in lol ... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, bncho said: I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, bncho said: I live in South Carolina. The bullseye will most definitely be Charleston. You still drinkin?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 icon a bit juicier at 78 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Shad said: icon a bit juicier at 78 That's a nice start!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z euro Ai almost turns the corner with the Jan 10-11 potential event, as is it crushes the southern mid Atlantic. This one has HECS potential if everything happened perfectly for us. As is it is currently favoring the SE, but we’ll see. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 12z euro Ai almost turns the corner with the Jan 10-11 potential event, as is it crushes the southern mid Atlantic. This one has HECS potential if everything happened perfectly for us. As is it is currently favoring the SE, but we’ll see . I like where it is right now. Just south gives it time to trend northward like it has been doing the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 icon coming in faster.....appears to be a bit south of the 12z run at this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Also will add, models currently want to take the southern wave and cut it off under the ridge, but if that can stay far enough E and phase with the incoming Northern Stream shortwave it will increase the odds of getting this thing up the coast. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Yep, ICON souther and even faster than the Euro now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Doesn’t looks south, it’s just way drier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, TSSN+ said: Doesn’t looks south, it’s just way drier. Dry as piss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Crap Icon is still a solid 3 to 5" across the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 storms going to be out of here before sunrise Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Shad said: storms going to be out of here before sunrise Monday morning Try to not forget the ICON is an absolute dogshit model. It’s just another piece of guidance though, so we look. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Shad said: storms going to be out of here before sunrise Monday morning It's the icon lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I'll take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The biggest threat to this system is going to be the Apps mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: The biggest threat to this system is going to be the Apps mountains. If we keep the s/w amped, not so much. would actually love to see a WSW/ENE progression and just give us 6”+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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