January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo only (and @psuhoffmanmentioned something similar), expected results based on enso climo aren't working anymore. It started after 2016 and hasn't really stopped lol. Since extended products rely heavily on long term enso climo, they have deemed themselves unreliable in all directions. Sometimes they nail it but there's been a lot of dandruff piling up from all the collective head scratching lol. 

When I did my wagging in October, I had been thinking about this a lot. For a couple years really. That's the primary reason I went against the grain. Not because I'm smarter than weather lol. It just made a lot of sense in the thought computer after being quite wrong for "weird" reasons last 3-5 years. 

 

I think the extended tools are probably most useful to take a peak beyond the end of the latest ensemble run by a week to 10 days, but not 20 or 30 lol.

[dailylurker]

That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. 

[Kevin Reilly]

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS getting SECS-y

 

See how long it lasts reality is temps in the 50's.  This has been the cast last 5-10 years models show what should be happening and then revert to a climate change state.  I know some say it dates back to 2016 but honestly it may have it's roots dating back to 1996.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. 

It tried. Just different timing between shortwaves and not enough spacing this run. The 0z Euro tried too. That is definitely our first window of interest.

6z GEFS has 7 or 8 members that imply frozen for our general area in the 4th-5th timeframe

[TSSN+]

18 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. 

What a storm at 200+hrs didn’t show up on the next run? Wow that’s shocking. Models usually pretty much rock solid that far out. 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. 

Downstream effects of the storm that hits between the 31st-2nd is the catalyst to getting the upper levels right for colder souther tracks. Gotta wait for full resolve of that feature before really knowing anything down the line. It's going to get cold and favorable down the line. That seems very likely now. Individual impulses down the line aren't really predictable in any way yet.

  The way I look at things, the evidence of active flow beyond the 1st is good enough for me. What when and how is still shotgun mode. Won't be long before we know which fail scenario seems most likely lolol. 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Downstream effects of the storm that hits between the 31st-2nd is the catalyst to getting the upper levels right for colder souther tracks. Gotta wait for full resolve of that feature before really knowing anything down the line. It's going to get cold and favorable down the line. That seems very likely now. Individual impulses down the line aren't really predictable in any way yet.

  The way I look at things, the evidence of active flow beyond the 1st is good enough for me. What when and how is still shotgun mode. Won't be long before we know which fail scenario seems most likely lolol. 

Thanks, Bob. Always appreciate your analysis. My comment was more so to get the conversation going this morning in here. It got a BC response so it worked as planned lol. 

[87storms]

That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. 

All the ops are good for at this range is to see “if” a pattern “could” support a storm. That’s about all I get from it.

[midatlanticweather]

And I am up for it all. Entertaining and informative all mixed in too 

[Weather Will]

If we were a sane bunch, we would all take a break and check back In early next week to see how the weekend after NYs looks...not going to happen....

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1871561261890384365?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[dallen7908]

Depending on location, 20-30% of EPS members give MD (west of the Bay and east of the mountains) 3" or more of snow/sleet during the day 10-15 window

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

If we were a sane bunch, we would all take a break and check back In early next week to see how the weekend after NYs looks...not going to happen....

Sounds like a plan. See ya in an hour.

[toolsheds]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

And I am up for it all. Entertaining and informative all mixed in too 

@midatlanticweather, you forgot Sun Angle. 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, toolsheds said:

@midatlanticweather, you forgot Sun Angle. 

...and "It has snowed in April!" 

[nj2va]

GFS close on the 4th but just misses the timing.  Fun period coming up I think.

[Lowershoresadness]

1 hour ago, toolsheds said:

@midatlanticweather, you forgot Sun Angle. 

ground temp depth maps, anal fronts, forum divider

[WVclimo]

27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS close on the 4th but just misses the timing.  Fun period coming up I think.

Then some front end action from an OV low on the 7th followed by freezing temperatures down to central FL. Good start to what looks like a wintry January.

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Then some front end action from an OV low on the 8th followed by freezing temperatures down to central FL.  Good start to what looks like a wintry January.

The rear end action never works out here anyway. 

[brooklynwx99]

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

[Kevin Reilly]

45 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS close on the 4th but just misses the timing.  Fun period coming up I think.

See you for the 18z can't wait!

[TSSN+]

32 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

ground temp depth maps, anal fronts, forum divider

Love those anal fronts 

[Lowershoresadness]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

John Madden is smiling

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS is all over the place wrt exact timing but says you could in theory score starting the 2nd and rolls chances through after that. 

[Ji]

Euro is a disaster for Jan 5. just dry

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro is a disaster for Jan 5. just dry

Euro op, euro ai, fast euro, or the beta euro?

[WxUSAF]

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Great thread from Tomer about GEFS-EPS differences. At the end he points out that the GFS Graphcast (AI) is closer to the euro suite 

 

GEFS moving to EPS

 

[Weather Will]

The next significant weather event is drought busting rain next weekend.  Looks wet if you are going to the Commander's Sunday night game.

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro is a disaster for Jan 5. just dry

Doesn’t look too far off something under the hood

[87storms]

Whatever happens, it does look like a mild stretch leading into the pattern change…and I’m all in on it.