BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:27 PM, wxdude64 said: A VERY small fall-off for the extreme north (but more area covered) and a minuscule increase in the far south. 99% noise. Expand Don't compare with 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:38 PM, stormtracker said: We're still 5 days out tho. I'm very cautiously optimistic Expand True, but the Euro/UKMET/EPS/CMC have really been so steady it's hard to disagree with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We had a nice group meet up in Baltimore area a few years ago. @nw baltimore wx where ya at? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:19 PM, TSSN+ said: The board would burst into flames if this member was right. 6” line rides the PA line and south of there gets screwed. Doubtful but man that would be a crushing blow to 99%. Expand Seems legit ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro shifts north 50 - 75 miles with 12z. Not good because Miller B's are notorious for serious mixing issues. No more of this!! Get back down in Tennessee and North Carolina. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:26 PM, mappy said: I’d take it haha Expand Regardless of the southern solutions.. I would be shocked if northern md wasn’t once again in the jack pot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:49 PM, DDweatherman said: We had a nice group meet up in Baltimore area a few years ago. @nw baltimore wx where ya at? Expand Wish I woulda been there.. I actually remember alot of you all from the old accuweather forum back before alot of us came to this one in 2010:) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:52 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Between runs so I’ll drop the banter here, but if the last five years is any indication, that’s to be expected. I wouldn’t complain if this was the outcome because I’m so starved for snow, but this has been the trend over and over in recent years for the right around Bmore crowd. Expand YUP . ITS ALMOST HILARIOUS NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:50 PM, stormy said: Euro shifts north 50 - 75 miles with 12z. Not good because Miller B's are notorious for serious mixing issues. No more of this!! Get back down in Tennessee and North Carolina. Expand Nooo I like it where it's at lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It can't be too soon to start a storm thread can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I know we are laser focused on the 6th and for good reason but starting to get good vibes for the uber LR. The end of all 3 ens today show a very nice pattern with a stretched PV that's in a good position, GL block becoming established again and heights rising in AK. I remember about a week or 10 days ago thinking around the 17th the pattern would start to break down based on the weeklies. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:50 PM, MDScienceTeacher said: Regardless of the southern solutions.. I would be shocked if northern md wasn’t once again in the jack pot. Expand It’s been known to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:46 PM, VA Mad Man said: @Ralph WiggumHa! Screen name is a hat tip to my profession. Expand I was only teasing anyway. We are all off our rockers here...every one of us. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:51 PM, winter_warlock said: Wish I woulda been there.. I actually remember alot of you all from the old accuweather forum back before alot of us came to this one in 2010:) Expand Yep! @Kmlwx and I posted there too 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:49 PM, DDweatherman said: We had a nice group meet up in Baltimore area a few years ago. @nw baltimore wx where ya at? Expand Pikesville. But will travel. That was a fun meetup in Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:54 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It can't be too soon to start a storm thread can it? Expand Yes yes it can 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:57 PM, BristowWx said: Yes yes it can Expand You know what time it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Geps. Snowfall and odds of 4" or more. P.s. Friday clipper .1" in PA and .2" in MD. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Wish the snow was coming Tuesday, could have a Monday meet. The roads in my hood by Liberty might as well need chains in any decent snow. would love to get the Balt/N MD gang together as we head into the deep winter period (hopefully). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 WB 15Z NBM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:17 PM, Weather Will said: WB 15Z NBM Expand Well, these two maps don’t correlate whatsoever huh? 20-1 ratios in the north I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:56 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Pikesville. But will travel. That was a fun meetup in Columbia. Expand That definitely needs to happen again for a forthcoming storm. Maybe not this one, but the next one? Sapwood again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:02 PM, Solution Man said: You know what time it is Expand Hammer time? Actually since the holidays I need those hammer pants so LFG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 6:55 PM, mappy said: It’s been known to happen Expand But it's been a little while, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:21 PM, DDweatherman said: Well, these two maps don’t correlate whatsoever huh? 20-1 ratios in the north I guess. Expand FWIW, the inputs to the NBM QPF and snowfall are not identical. Definitely a source of confusion. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:44 PM, high risk said: FWIW, the inputs to the NBM QPF and snowfall and not identical. Definitely a source of confusion. Expand I just came here to mention this as well. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:44 PM, high risk said: FWIW, the inputs to the NBM QPF and snowfall are not identical. Definitely a source of confusion. Expand Is qpf more reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:48 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Is qpf more reliable? Expand Let's leave it at "they're different". The QPF uses some addition inputs that aren't great, but they are bias corrected, which helps - they certainly add more spread. The NBM QPF also heavily weights the WPC QPF (prior to forecaster adjustment) beyond Day 2, and that is not hooked up to the NBM winter products. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 7:48 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Is qpf more reliable? Expand QPF and snow maps aren't very reliable outside of 72 hours in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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