NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 EURO rockets out so fast you can barely do PBP. Posted and refreshed 3 times and that was it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:35 PM, TSSN+ said: Very nice. Another 25 miles north and makes us all happy. Expand I'll allow 25. But no more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:34 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Slight jog north but mostly noise-y. Precip maxima shrank a bit. Expand Wrap it up. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:34 PM, stormtracker said: Looks go to me. No complaints Expand Agreed I'll take that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is solid. First legit warning level event for everyone in years. I'm so happy! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:35 PM, NorthArlington101 said: EURO rockets out so fast you can barely do PBP. Posted and refreshed 3 times and that was it Expand Anything for the 1/10-1/11? Have Pivotal which is much slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:37 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Euro is solid. First legit warning level event for everyone in years. I'm so happy! Expand We're still 5 days out tho. I'm very cautiously optimistic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:36 PM, stormtracker said: I'll allow 25. But no more! Expand That’s all we need to get the 6”+ up the pa line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:37 PM, rjvanals said: Anything for the 1/10-1/11? Have Pivotal which is much slower Expand I'm out to 1/9 but looks unlikely based on the players on the board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:34 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Slight jog north but mostly noise-y. Precip maxima shrank a bit. Expand Euro has been amazingly consistent in giving DC and south a decent smack down. I’d be surprised if it verified with that much snow, but I’m feeling pretty good about the precip max stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:31 PM, TSSN+ said: Good thing you’re not cause we don’t care what you think. We live here, we know what happens the majority of the time. Also still 4-5 days out. We lost storms in 3-4 days our before and seen massive shifts inside 72hrs. Expand That is true for everyone. A north or south shift making some happy and some sad. Snow IS a IMBY thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 So last couple model runs have majority of sub-forum in a 3-8+ range. I like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:38 PM, stormtracker said: We're still 5 days out tho. I'm very cautiously optimistic Expand Since I ain't gonna be there this is rich - but agree with the cautious optimism. Fairly narrow zone that gets the true goods - 100mi wide? The usual last-second shifts we get are gonna screw someone in this region. Most should see something, in fact if the EURO is right (and has been consistent) most do very well. But a little glad I won't be sweating the last second 50mi shift one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:38 PM, stormtracker said: We're still 5 days out tho. I'm very cautiously optimistic Expand Just about 4 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:41 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Since I ain't gonna be there this is rich - but agree with the cautious optimism. Fairly narrow zone that gets the true goods - 100mi wide? The usual last-second shifts we get are gonna screw someone in this region. Most should see something, in fact if the EURO is right (and has been consistent) most do very well. But a little glad I won't be sweating the last second 50mi shift one way or the other. Expand Lately, the sweating part is the only thing that's a lock around here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro has been rock steady (with some expected minor waddling on the exact location of the precip max) Let’s reel her in! 4 days and change to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:43 PM, TSSN+ said: Just about 4 now. Expand yea but the storrm really starts at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:45 PM, stormtracker said: Lately, the sweating part is the only thing that's a lock around here. Expand Well it’s going to be cold enough soon so maybe our sweat will increase the qpf enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That is one vigorous s/w on the Euro at 105hrs. It starts to weaken after that thanks to the block. If that block as currently progged is a hair weaker, it's going to make a big difference for all, and mostly good imho. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:27 PM, MillvilleWx said: The model very likely has a small decision tree approach when it comes to ptype dissemination, so any nose above the 0°C threshold will ultimately shift the ptype to a more mixed variety. Pending the depth of the omega between 850-600mb and the intensity of the precip, the result could still yield snowfall, albeit more clumped aggregates and lower ratios. The warm advection regime within the boundary layer will ultimately cause a changeover somewhere with the current southerly flow magnitude being progged. Climo suggests those Fredericksburg on south would have the highest potential with Southern MD likely to be next on any northerly adjustment. I think those that are along and north of Rt50 should stay all snow with this one with realistically the zone north of Fairfax/Northern Prince William/Charles counties probably maintaining most, if not all snow. Would need this storm to cut further north to threaten those zones. Best accums will be within the 7H and 85H FGEN areas with the northern periphery seeing best ratios to offset the “lighter” precip potential. 85H FGEN will have slightly lower ratios, but more precip. This is a good dual maxima setup wherever this sets up. Jury still out, but I still think this ends up a Central VA on northward storm. Ensembles have been pretty insistent on that. GFS waffling on location should be a major red flag in terms of forecasting. Until other models follow suit and/or GFS becomes steadily locked in for multiple days, I don’t see its 12z representation being the final solution. Ahh, decision trees. That’s interesting, but makes sense due to the nominal output. I vote to prune them at majority snow…for the sake of digital snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:45 PM, jayyy said: Euro has been rock steady (with some expected minor waddling on the exact location of the precip max) Let’s reel her in! 4 days and change to go Expand I can be devils advocate here. The GFS has been rocksteady as well for days. A good old model war! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:11 PM, Maestrobjwa said: That claw that stops at my yard in NE baltimore is something, lol Expand Between runs so I’ll drop the banter here, but if the last five years is any indication, that’s to be expected. I wouldn’t complain if this was the outcome because I’m so starved for snow, but this has been the trend over and over in recent years for the right around Bmore crowd. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro H5 looks pretty good...prob not good enough for us, but signal is there for something D10 Yeah, won't swing up the coast, but starts going way off shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This hangover is just horrific. Still think it will come north a little bit. Always does. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:52 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Between runs so I’ll drop the banter here, but if the last five years is any indication, that’s to be expected. I wouldn’t complain if this was the outcome because I’m so starved for snow, but this has been the trend over and over in recent years. Expand Love seeing dark orange on a snow map 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:54 PM, jonjon said: Love seeing dark orange on a snow map Expand Let’s see how you feel about that when it includes a trip by me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:38 PM, stormtracker said: We're still 5 days out tho. I'm very cautiously optimistic Expand I know we always sweat little 20-50mi wiggles, even down to game time. But I haven't seen anything in at least 48 hours, and maybe more, that I would count as an actual "trend". Euro especially has been near rock solid. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:51 PM, Interstate said: I can be devils advocate here. The GFS has been rocksteady as well for days. A good old model war! Expand Has it really? Looks like it may have been partying a little hard over the past couple days. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:59 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Has it really? Expand Ya idk maybe they mean the euro haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 5:59 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Has it really? Expand Its been great for Missouri 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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