Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Legit chance for snow on snow on snow over the next next week. It's been awhile. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ok. Correct me if I'm wrong but the gfs ensembles were much farther north compared to the Op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Legit chance for snow on snow on snow over the next next week. It's been awhile. Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Legit chance for snow on snow on snow over the next next week. It's been awhile. Who’s ready for 12 inches of glacier? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A Lot of weenies in here today. Grasping at whatever model is good for the backyard lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Ok. Correct me if I'm wrong but the gfs ensembles were much farther north compared to the Op run? Generally, although there are about 5 or so bad misses to the south like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Surprised to see ukie colder than cmc, maybe a good sign. Both are around the same caliber for model verification, close behind euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Quite the temp gradient on the 12z UKIE right after the storm; on monday night, DCA is 22 while CHO is 3 Same thing Tuesday night... DCA 27, EZF 11, CHO -5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 WB 12Z GEFS members 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, bncho said: This winter was expected to be a bum. Now we might be looking at AN snowfall and BN temps. It is absolutely too early to be discussing seasonal temp results when astronomical winter started like 11 days ago. And seasonal precip too for that matter. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: A Lot of weenies in here today. Grasping at whatever model is good for the backyard lol You new here? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, bncho said: This winter was expected to be a bum. Now we might be looking at AN snowfall and BN temps. Let’s not spike the football until we have real not digital snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: If this pans and roads are decent we gotta do a meet up. Ebbits doesn’t do the half price anymore and do any of you guys have a favored raw bar close to city but not necessarily in it? I can pick you up if needed and would be a pleasure ! We actually haven't found a new hangout yet. We need to find a new wx nerd HQ and I'm in! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is most important today as other models have been trending towards it. Important to see if it holds serve or starts trending a dif direction. Last night you guys were hugging the gfs at midnight now you could careless cause its not good for your backyards. You guys are funny when it comes to snow. 1 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, mappy said: Kinda wish half here would too tbh Yeah, I had a slip up with that pbp. was kinda my fault with the cascading bad calls. And I'm kinda hungover. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said: Euro is most important today as other models have been trending towards it. Important to see if it holds serve or starts trending a dif direction. Last night you guys were hugging the gfs at midnight now you could careless cause its not good for your backyards. You guys are funny when it comes to snow. Well one, the gfs is the worst model currently and two its own ens don’t really agree with it. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie Kuchera That claw that stops at my yard in NE baltimore is something, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Look at my post count do I look new? Just spit out facts makes sense that you are post-limited. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Weather Will said: Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. When they stop looking better than the op 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. Probably not till like 72hrs out. You don’t stop looking at them inside 5 days lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 minutes ago, yoda said: Quite the temp gradient on the 12z UKIE right after the storm; on monday night, DCA is 22 while CHO is 3 Same thing Tuesday night... DCA 27, EZF 11, CHO -5 Fresh snow + new artic airmass = undercut low temps. 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. I stop relying on ensembles within 48 hours before an event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 55 minutes ago, yoda said: @Terpeast @MillvilleWx Question - 12z CMC shows sleet nearby. However, checking the column/soundings, only the 750mb to around 800mb level (maybe 825mb) goes above 0c. EZF at 120 has it around 1C. Is that enough to wreck snow accumulation? The warm zone is so small that I don't think it would make a big deal? The model very likely has a small decision tree approach when it comes to ptype dissemination, so any nose above the 0°C threshold will ultimately shift the ptype to a more mixed variety. Pending the depth of the omega between 850-600mb and the intensity of the precip, the result could still yield snowfall, albeit more clumped aggregates and lower ratios. The warm advection regime within the boundary layer will ultimately cause a changeover somewhere with the current southerly flow magnitude being progged. Climo suggests those Fredericksburg on south would have the highest potential with Southern MD likely to be next on any northerly adjustment. I think those that are along and north of Rt50 should stay all snow with this one with realistically the zone north of Fairfax/Northern Prince William/Charles counties probably maintaining most, if not all snow. Would need this storm to cut further north to threaten those zones. Best accums will be within the 7H and 85H FGEN areas with the northern periphery seeing best ratios to offset the “lighter” precip potential. 85H FGEN will have slightly lower ratios, but more precip. This is a good dual maxima setup wherever this sets up. Jury still out, but I still think this ends up a Central VA on northward storm. Ensembles have been pretty insistent on that. GFS waffling on location should be a major red flag in terms of forecasting. Until other models follow suit and/or GFS becomes steadily locked in for multiple days, I don’t see its 12z representation being the final solution. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Let's see what the Euro brings us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Essentially identical through 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. Inside 60 hrs. Still a ways to go! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Snowing at 111 - mix line norther (I-64) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Slight jog north but mostly noise - Precip maxima shrank a bit. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looks go to me. No complaints 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Slight jog north but mostly noise. Very nice. Another 25 miles north and makes us all happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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