yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CHO is ripping snow at 117 and 120 on 12z UKIE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Atlantic monster putting up a better fight I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:36 PM, winter_warlock said: All big storms trend north. Is a big rule of thumb.. happens 90% of the time... especially when there still 100+ hours left lol Expand With a strong -NAO not nearly as often. Some of the least track insanity inside 72-96 occurs in patterns like 09-10 or now when things are slowed down by the NAO. You won't often see massive changes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Hard to put any stock in the gfs solution for the 10th given how bouncy it’s been for the 6th, but it’s illustrative for the ingredients of a classic miller A. Here’s the setup at 500mb. Strong southern shortwave (green) and northern shortwave diving in (blue). To turn the coast, we’d want this all shifted west by a couple-few hundred miles. Not a major shift at D10. Then on the next panel, you can see that they don’t quite phase completely. If they did, that would also help pull it north. Still pretty close for d10. 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:20 PM, Shad said: One concern with a storm like this and most Miller B type storms is there is usually a transfer of Low Pressure to the Coast and a dry slot where certain areas get screwed.....wouldnt be suprised if someone in VA gets dry slotted with this event Expand DC typically gets very little with the transfer. Good overrunning and then drizzles out . Northeast MD to NYC gets the transfer snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ukie is faster with our s/w, giving Atlantic system time to hang around longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ripping snow N VA/DC/MD 126 on 12z UKIE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Not a fan of the Ukie but it does hammer 2/3 of VA with a Warning level event as dipicted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Man NE must've really pissed off the snow gods at some point. Hate that for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:49 PM, SnowGoose69 said: With a strong -NAO not nearly as often. Some of the least track insanity inside 72-96 occurs in patterns like 09-10 or now when things are slowed down by the NAO. You won't often see massive changes. Expand Even a change of 50 to 75 Miles north would make alot of people happy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:51 PM, Shad said: Not a fan of the Ukie but it does hammer 2/3 of VA with a Warning level event as dipicted Expand Send amounts please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 UKIE way south from 0z and now in line with everything else. We have pretty broad agreement on a good surface low track below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ukie Kuchera 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:52 PM, bncho said: Send amounts please. Expand 6"+ for all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A late save by the Ukie for northern folks. Congrats to all for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:52 PM, mitchnick said: Ukie Kuchera Expand I like the wiggle room south of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:53 PM, yoda said: 6"+ for all Expand And it’s cold too, 25 in DC all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:52 PM, mitchnick said: Ukie Kuchera Expand The difference in one run is lol worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:53 PM, nj2va said: I like the wiggle room south of us. Expand Wiggle north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Close up view from PW 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:51 PM, yoda said: Ripping snow N VA/DC/MD 126 on 12z UKIE Expand Do you have start and end times and temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:53 PM, mitchnick said: A late save by the Ukie for northern folks. Congrats to all for playing. Expand Cmc. And ukie are very similar. Gfs was alot More south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:55 PM, yoda said: Close up view from PW Expand Everyone gets nearly the same, I’d take this in a heartbeat. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:55 PM, WEATHER53 said: Do you have start and end times and temps? Expand For DC metro? It's mainly day event on Monday. Snow starts around daybreak... ends in the evening. Temperatures in the mid 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:49 PM, WxUSAF said: Hard to put any stock in the gfs solution for the 10th given how bouncy it’s been for the 6th, but it’s illustrative for the ingredients of a classic miller A. Here’s the setup at 500mb. Strong southern shortwave (green) and northern shortwave diving in (blue). To turn the coast, we’d want this all shifted west by a couple-few hundred miles. Not a major shift at D10. Then on the next panel, you can see that they don’t quite phase completely. If they did, that would also help pull it north. Still pretty close for d10. Expand Not bad at all for 10 days!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gefs 12z top 6z bottom. Does include .4-.5 from Saturday. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:55 PM, yoda said: Close up view from PW Expand Hagerstown to Short Pump…don’t see that often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:56 PM, TSSN+ said: Everyone gets nearly the same, I’d take this in a heartbeat. Expand For first real snow of season ill take it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:57 PM, yoda said: For DC metro? It's mainly day event on Monday. Snow starts around daybreak... ends in the evening. Temperatures in the mid 20s Expand Yea and thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 4:57 PM, T. August said: Gefs 12z top 6z bottom. Does include .4-.5 from Friday. Expand Was just about to post the PW version, with the 24-hour option: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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