NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:26 PM, mitchnick said: Kuchie Expand Yeah - the reason this isn’t as awesome as the EURO has been when you flip to Kuchera is that the ICON is warmer at the surface than other guidance. Held my tongue on that til you posted that since it’s the ICON, lol. It would all stick, but it’s like 31 in DC. Takes up til MD/PA border to get into the mid-20s. Seems to be on a bit of an island, but I guess verbatim ratios wouldn’t “save” folks this time. It’s pretty much the 10:1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:26 PM, mitchnick said: Kuchie Expand maybe a verified warning criteria out of this one. And extended vacation for the schools. Both require dry January to be pushed out a bit further. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:27 PM, dailylurker said: I honestly wouldn't want to be up there right now lol. Looks south to me. Expand Good thing you’re not cause we don’t care what you think. We live here, we know what happens the majority of the time. Also still 4-5 days out. We lost storms in 3-4 days our before and seen massive shifts inside 72hrs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:29 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah - the reason this isn’t as awesome as the EURO has been when you flip to Kuchera is that the ICON is warmer at the surface than other guidance. Held my tongue on that til you posted that since it’s the ICON, lol. It would all stick, but it’s like 31 in DC. Takes up til MD/PA border to get into the mid-20s. Seems to be on a bit of an island, but I guess verbatim ratios wouldn’t save folks this time. It’s pretty much the 10:1 map. Expand Those Beemers run hot ya' know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:32 PM, dailylurker said: You're right. Storm always end up there. Try my climo near Annopoils lol Expand I’m sure you will be in a good spot for this one. But the northern folks should also probably see a better result. But who knows we suck at snow anymore so a complete fail wouldn’t shock me either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:33 PM, TSSN+ said: I’m sure you will be in a good spot for this one. But the northern folks should also probably see a better result. But who knows we suck at snow anymore so a complete fail wouldn’t shock me either Expand I'd love for us all to score for once. Fingers crossed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:33 PM, Bob Chill said: I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol I thought smith mountain lake was a snow haven? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro has been so consistent the past 4+ runs.....other models getting closer but still jumping around a bit. Fredericksburg seems to be a good place to be for this one based on the current modeling but that can change quickly...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:34 PM, WxUSAF said: Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall. Expand Depends what’s model you believe if it’s 25 and snowing in the northern side I’m sure ratios will be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12Z is running. Get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:34 PM, WxUSAF said: Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall. Expand I’m curious at what type of ratios we come up with over the weekend at the winter desk. I’d wager an avg of 10-11:1 for most here, but some of the better FGEN banding will probably poke 14-15:1, especially the 7H FGEN which will lie on the northern edge of the best QPF. Still fun to talk about snow in these parts before the hammer drops. Will feel like deep winter. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:37 PM, Shad said: Euro has been so consistent the past 4+ runs.....other models getting closer but still jumping around a bit. Fredericksburg seems to be a good place to be for this one based on the current modeling but that can change quickly...... Expand Thus far, anyone in North-Central Virginia is in the game for this one so far-but it is early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:33 PM, Bob Chill said: I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol Expand Dang that's all y'all got down there? Lol How big is the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:27 PM, Ji said: Let’s hope that that 90% rule works out. We have a chance for a rare double digit snowfall Expand I would be totally happy with 4-6” down here if it meant everyone got in on some significant snowfall. Icon was about as close to perfect as you could hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Canadian looks fairly similar to the 00z at 120hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:37 PM, IronTy said: 12Z is running. Get to work. Expand 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:36 PM, Ji said: I thought smith mountain lake was a snow haven? Expand Lol nah. I downgraded snow climo with no regrets. Living down here is too sweet to care. Just chillin on the deck waiting for the slopfest one of these days Smith mtn will get shellacked and i will be sure to remind you daily hahaha 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:54 PM, Bob Chill said: Lol nah. I downgraded snow climo with no regrets. Living down here is too sweet to care. Just chillin on the deck waiting for the slopfest one of these days Smith mtn will get shellacked and i will be sure to remind you daily hahaha Expand Hi Bob. Congrats! What's ur elevation and Smith mtn? Are there roads over it to weenie out in marginal events? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 So far…gfs is a tick stronger in the plains and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:57 PM, LP08 said: So far…gfs is a tick stronger in the plains and quicker. Expand That's better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gun against my head, if I had to guess...I'd say it'll come a little north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GFS looks SEXY. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:57 PM, LP08 said: So far…gfs is a tick stronger in the plains and quicker. Expand And earlier neg tilt, which could mean more moisture feed. Too early to tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looks like DC/Balt will be the bullseye here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Confluence lifting out sooner.....precip more SW to NE oriented so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Y’all let the damn model run before commenting lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:59 PM, Terpeast said: And earlier neg tilt, which could mean more moisture feed. Too early to tell Expand Definitely. don’t hate it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 1/1/2025 at 3:58 PM, stormtracker said: Gun against my head, if I had to guess...I'd say it'll come a little north Expand Southwest and low looks a little more powerful and the confluence is slightly further north (Connecticut vs New York City on 6z) at hour 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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