NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:30 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Does anyone have the 12z GEFS? Or are they not out yet? Expand They are better than the OP and better than 06z. Looking at the median over the last 4 runs: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:34 PM, NorthArlington101 said: They are better than the OP and better than 06z. Looking at the median over the last 4 runs: Expand You should start a flizzard thread for the 4th. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:36 PM, CAPE said: You should start a flizzard thread for the 4th. Expand It exists! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Euro is south. DC still does ok but north of Baltimore gets screwed hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:39 PM, T. August said: Euro is south. DC still does ok but north of Baltimore gets screwed hard. Expand 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Max was over DC at 0z and over Fredericksburg now? That’s essentially an identical solution for D6. Caveat that I haven’t looked at anything besides @NorthArlington101’s snowmap. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Max is souther so far. Supression thang is real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:39 PM, T. August said: Euro is south. DC still does ok but north of Baltimore gets screwed hard. Expand 12" at DC seems like a bit better than ok 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:41 PM, stormtracker said: F...... Expand Fantastic Salisbury 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 There is obviously more to it than timing (maybe @CAPE's jet stream lift?) but the CMC and EURO really look the same in a lot of ways... just depends on the thumpiness of the thump and EURO being ~12 hours quicker. EURO still collapses/shreds when it gets closer to the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:41 PM, stormtracker said: Max is souther so far. Supression thang is real Expand It’s crushed compared to previous runs big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12z Euro isn't stretched out or a cutter. It's ticked south a bit, but this is a D5-D6 thing for everyone and there's no mixing or rain for our subforum. I'm satisfied with the results. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 As we have seen with past storms The exact position of the stripe is never modeled accurately until 24 hours or less. Even that it's not always right, sometimes off by 50 plus miles. Euro looks great and I wouldn't sweat it DC and points north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Damn thing tries to climb to get to us, but that confluence is a bitch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:42 PM, aldie 22 said: 12" at DC seems like a bit better than ok Expand I was looking at qpf. Can’t deny that it’s worse than 0z for 99% of us. Not trying to be a downer but it’s true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:43 PM, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro isn't stretched out or a cutter. It's ticked south a bit, but this is a D5-D6 thing for everyone and there's no mixing or rain for our subforum. I'm satisfied with the results. Expand This is a perfect run. Being a tad north of the bullseye 6 days out is always where I want to be at this range. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand Looks fine by me we don't come back from NC hits but this is perfectly acceptable for this range 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:44 PM, stormtracker said: Damn thing tries to climb to get to us, but that confluence is a bitch Expand Well 90% of the time confleuce is over done and it creeps back north. I am not crying over that run. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand 1 10 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:44 PM, T. August said: I was looking at qpf. Can’t deny that it’s worse than 0z for 99% of us. Not trying to be a downer but it’s true. Expand You live well north I understand your disappointment but up your way isn't 99% of this area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:45 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: This is a perfect run. Being a tad north of the bullseye 6 days out is always where I want to be at this range. Expand I'm on the M/D and I'm good with this run. So many damn times confluence has weekened as we close in on game time that we get missed to the north. Don't want it to drop further south but having a little wiggle room isn't bad. Still 6 days out. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 IIRC, the December 19, 2009 event was suppressed significantly until D4 when the modeled strong 50/50 low was a bit further north and weaker. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:48 PM, Chris78 said: I'm on the M/D and I'm good with this run. So many damn times confluence has weekened as we close in on game time that we get missed to the north. Don't want it to drop further south but having a little wiggle room isn't bad. Still 6 days out. Expand Absolutely, my big fear here is the UKIE where the WAA overshoots us and it’s 39 and cloudy while NYC and NJ steal our snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 People are cliff jumping in here over the euro? Looks great still - again, the goal posts are set. VA NC border to Central PA. I like where we sit right now being 5-6 days out 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:48 PM, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC, the December 19, 2009 event was suppressed significantly until D4 when the modeled strong 50/50 low was a bit further north and weaker. Expand It was but was that a slider or more of a hybrid system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:48 PM, Chris78 said: I'm on the M/D and I'm good with this run. So many damn times confluence has weekened as we close in on game time that we get missed to the north. Don't want it to drop further south but having a little wiggle room isn't bad. Still 6 days out. Expand ^ This 100%. 4” in Hagerstown and 8” in Martinsburg is a great storm at the front end of a cold wave. I would sign for this in a heartbeat. The previous runs of the ECMWF showed so much more QPF than all the other models. I expected a correction. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 DC being just north should be good news for everybody. Things trend north if it's a big snowstorm. Even if the Euro verifies verbatim we still don't have to worry about mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:46 PM, TSSN+ said: Well 90% of the time confleuce is over done and it creeps back north. I am not crying over that run. Expand oh yeah, I'm not in panic or worry mode...not even close. I think we score, but prob not a foot, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On 12/31/2024 at 5:50 PM, LeesburgWx said: People are cliff jumping in here over the euro? Looks great still - again, the goal posts are set. VA NC border to Central PA. I like where we sit right now being 5-6 days out Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Anyone with the Eps snowfall yet? Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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