January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[mitchnick]

For those believing the Cfs monthly forecasts only have value at the beginning of the forecast month, here's its January forecast. 

[brooklynwx99]

straight out of the MA weenie handbook

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

straight out of the MA weenie handbook

The Euro needs to stay the course, and be the correct outcome. We need this.

[Huffwx]

58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter what happens, the WAA piece looks pretty good for the MA (somewhere) not including my yard lol. Things get muddy with the mid and upper lows but that front part has all the ingredients in place for a hot and heavy stripe. Prob not real fluffy though unless mid/uppers crank a little when mid level winds shift. 

Not feelin too excited here. Maybe an inch or 3 at best before inevitable ptype problems. Pretty good cad area here though. Especially on our land east of Smith mtn. NE surface flow banks up pretty good and the topography between Smith mtn and Gretna is a forrested bowl. Doesn't scour easy as all. Considering this is my 3rd winter spending time here and I've never seen a plow or the grass covered.... I'll take what I can get and be happy AF. 

 

I'm up in Forest but also have a house in Rocky Mount. Welcome to the hood. You picked the non snowy side of the lake.  Weve been looking to consolidate near the and I've already states Goodview was my preferred location:) Marginal events lake warmth will hurt..

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Euro needs to stay the course, and be the correct outcome. We need this.

honestly, even if this amps more and confluence ticks north, there's enough cold in place that I don't see how you guys wouldn't at least get a front end +SN thump to usher in the pattern. the antecedent airmass is very cold

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly, even if this amps more and confluence ticks north, there's enough cold in place that I don't see how you guys wouldn't at least get a front end +SN thump to usher in the pattern. the antecedent airmass is very cold

More worried about it getting sheared apart than anything at this point. Hopefully the euro and ukmet have the right idea. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

More worried about it getting sheared apart than anything at this point. Hopefully the euro and ukmet have the right idea. 

exactly, amped means something. better than a weak POS

[Buddy1987]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Euro needs to stay the course, and be the correct outcome. We need this.

I’m actually worried because of the trajectory of the low at present the WAA misses and goes north of here, which of course would be good for a good majority of the forum. 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 hours ago, Solution Man said:

GFS gonna be pretty good 

4 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Strung out mess

Ah, the duality of man 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’m actually worried because of the trajectory of the low at present the WAA misses and goes north of here, which of course would be good for a good majority of the forum. 

Either way a more amped solution would get us some more precip than what the GFS or any strung out solution could give even if we miss part of the WAA. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I've been too busy (and sick) to look at any runs too closely, but in general, I really like that regardless of what happens next week (first or second chance), it doesn't look like our window is closing anytime soon.  

 Hope ya feel better bro!!!

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

The 06z GFS 10/11 storm isn't a classic big dog, but it is a long-duration event with a 500 low closing off near Richmond and prolonging the snow.  

If we had a true stj assisting it, 2 famous events that had a similar east-west stripe of moisture hitting a wall of arctic cold come to mind.

[SnowenOutThere]

Guys, don't worry about the 6th threat we got classic and unbeatable CFS and Euro combo 

[winter_warlock]

06z euro aifs

  Not bad at all for 5 to 6 days out 

 

[TSSN+]

Tropical tidbits makes 6z euro look even sexier 

 

 

[anotherman]

Guys, don't worry about the 6th threat we got classic and unbeatable CFS and Euro combo 

Margavage? Is that you?

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Tropical tidbits makes 6z euro look even sexier 

 

 

 Love seeing the  darker blue!!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Tropical tidbits makes 6z euro look even sexier 

 

 

Gosh that is quite beautiful. Nice tropical feed, freezing line through southern Virginia.  Pretty much how we draw up a solid moderate event.  

[clskinsfan]

Euro has been pretty rock solid on its depiction. Could be rock solidly wrong though. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro has been pretty rock solid on its depiction. Could be rock solidly wrong though. 

Seeing how the other models are moving it’s direction, hopefully that’s a good sign that it has the right idea. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly, even if this amps more and confluence ticks north, there's enough cold in place that I don't see how you guys wouldn't at least get a front end +SN thump to usher in the pattern. the antecedent airmass is very cold

I didnt realize just how cold it was.  Verbatim, during the front end thump it is 23 degrees at the surface at BWI.  When was the last time we saw 23 degrees and +SN?

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Love seeing the  darker blue!!!!

would like to have the 534 south of us...insurance policy

[Weather Will]

13 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

06z euro aifs

  Not bad at all for 5 to 6 days out 

 

6Z WB AI actually went a little south this run compared to 0Z but still not sheared.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I didnt realize just how cold it was.  Verbatim, during the front end thump it is 23 degrees at the surface at BWI.  When was the last time we saw 23 degrees and +SN?

Probably during the cold conveyor belt part of 2016.  Most of our recent snows have been 28-32 ish. 

[Shad]

Seems that the Euro has trended this South slightly each run......does that continue?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Shad said:

Seems that the Euro has trended this South slightly each run......does that continue?

Was looking north on 6z compared to 0z. 

[Heisy]

Looks pretty close to 0z to me. I don’t think the outcome would be very different. 

The 50/50 and confluence was weaker/N. 6z euro would have been a bump N for sure, but it still would have been a very good hit. It was probably perfect, but it won’t matter in about 3 hours anyway.

Pay attention to the confluence in my GIF




.

[clskinsfan]

30 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’m actually worried because of the trajectory of the low at present the WAA misses and goes north of here, which of course would be good for a good majority of the forum. 

Yeah. Someone is gonna get screwed out of the WAA. Just the way these things go. My wag is it ends up a little further north than even here. Nothing worse than being in the bullseye at day 6.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Shad said:

Seems that the Euro has trended this South slightly each run......does that continue?

Folks are sharing two iterations of the Euro: The operational Euro and it's ensembles, and the experimental Euro-AI. I would caution against relying on the Euro AI this winter.

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks are sharing two iterations of the Euro: The operational Euro and it's ensembles, and the experimental Euro-AI. I would caution against relying on the Euro AI this winter.

Why is Euro AI unreliable? I’m trying to understand how models work.