Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 GFS at 246 is a NC/Southern VA special, but we step closer and get snow this time that lingers for some time. Still snowing at 276 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 06z was a big improvement over 00z for gfs. Here's the storm on the 10th. Big shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Big shift!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Gfs better for the 5-6th storm and welcome back 10th-11th storm. Let’s gooo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 WB 6Z EURO at Day 6, end of run. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO at Day 6, end of run. Looks pretty good to me. If only it went out 24 more hours. Guess we will see at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 That gfs run looked pretty good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I like the trends on the GFS and the GEFS overnight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 On big issue I see with the GFS is it east to west trajectory. That allows the mountains to dry up all the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I like the trends on the GFS and the GEFS overnight. The trend us our friend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Sterling mentions storm potential on monday... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the east coast early next week. There is still considerable spread on the ultimate outcome in both timing and precipitation potential/placement. However, winter weather will be possible since temperatures will remain below normal. Continue to monitor the forecast for potential impacts during this period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6z operational and EPS were pretty solid for you guys. Hoping the Mid-Atlantic can cash in on this one since it's been a hellish last few years. 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 In the extended range, GFS showing hi temps BN for the most of the sub for a solid 2 weeks with peak cold coming next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: 6z operational and EPS were pretty solid for you guys. Hoping the Mid-Atlantic can cash in on this one since it's been a hellish last few years. Slp on 6z is further north than 0z by 50-75 miles +/- and is 4mb lower than 0z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Setting up to be a good weekend at Snowshoe, Canaan, Whitegrass, Timberline, Wisp, 7Springs. And this doesn’t cover what may fall Friday and on via upslope. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Heck of a fetch from the Gulf / Caribbean, which are still cooking as well. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Superstorm93 said: Heck of a fetch from the Gulf / Caribbean, which are still cooking as well. I was just looking at the 5H vort. It's a touch further south at 6z than 0z, but is stronger with 2 closed isobars instead of only 1. This would definitely come north of 0z if it was to play out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I was just looking at the 5H vort. It's a touch further south at 6z than 0z, but is stronger with 2 closed isobars instead of only 1. This would definitely come north of 0z if it was to play out. Looks pretty close to 0z to me. I don’t think the outcome would be very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 My coffee tasting even better this morning after looking at that 0z Euro and 6z GFS. It’s going to be rocking January. Happy New Year to you all! And damn straight the coffee got Kahlua in it. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 One difference I noticed between the GFS and the Euro/CMC is the GFS de-amplifies the trough as it moves into an upper level convergence zone(flow velocity decreases)- note the area of discontinuity as the flow within the jet streak rounds the base of the trough and encounters the region just upstream of a strong jet streak associated with the massive vortex over the Canadian Maritimes. That weakens the lift as precip moves into our area. The Euro has a more continuous/favorable jet configuration at that same point with a stronger shortwave at h5 and heavier precip at the surface. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I was just looking at the 5H vort. It's a touch further south at 6z than 0z, but is stronger with 2 closed isobars instead of only 1. This would definitely come north of 0z if it was to play out. Maybe but not necessarily. Confluence in front is a bit stronger 6z than 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 50/50 is a touch east, which helps with the confluence and gives you a better shot to phase in the northern stream vort. Not that far away from a bigger solution. Could be a fun day if these trends hold up. 20 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The 06z GFS 10/11 storm isn't a classic big dog, but it is a long-duration event with a 500 low closing off near Richmond and prolonging the snow. 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe but not necessarily. Confluence in front is a bit stronger 6z than 0z It is a tightrope. Based on 0z and 6z, it sure looks like there will be an east-west stripe of over a foot. Exactly where that will be is a moving target unless Superstorm's northern stream possibility comes to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 50/50 is a touch east, which helps with the confluence and gives you a better shot to phase in the northern stream vort. Not that far away from a bigger solution. Could be a fun day if these trends hold up. Agree I think this has more upside . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I've been too busy (and sick) to look at any runs too closely, but in general, I really like that regardless of what happens next week (first or second chance), it doesn't look like our window is closing anytime soon. 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 No matter what happens, the WAA piece looks pretty good for the MA (somewhere) not including my yard lol. Things get muddy with the mid and upper lows but that front part has all the ingredients in place for a hot and heavy stripe. Prob not real fluffy though unless mid/uppers crank a little when mid level winds shift. Not feelin too excited here. Maybe an inch or 3 at best before inevitable ptype problems. Pretty good cad area here though. Especially on our land east of Smith mtn. NE surface flow banks up pretty good and the topography between Smith mtn and Gretna is a forrested bowl. Doesn't scour easy as all. Considering this is my 3rd winter spending time here and I've never seen a plow or the grass covered.... I'll take what I can get and be happy AF. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 In NAM range by Thursday night/friday morning. Ready to be NAM’D for the time haha Hoping GFS folds quicker than a table in Buffalo. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 06z GFS 10/11 storm isn't a classic big dog, but it is a long-duration event with a 500 low closing off near Richmond and prolonging the snow. Weekend Rule too! ALEET ALEET 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6z euro looked good - wish it went out a bit more. Trends a trending. Let’s reel this one in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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