MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:40 PM, MN Transplant said: The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy. Expand lol what a good model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:39 PM, stormtracker said: Do we care about fantasy land? Kinda hmmm rn Expand We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:42 PM, MN Transplant said: We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low. Expand It's trying...not sure it's gonna make it tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:42 PM, MN Transplant said: We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low. Expand It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:45 PM, stormtracker said: It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land Expand The Atlantic is a mess, but this is 11 days out. The initial vort that goes into TX doesn't even hit the pac NW until Monday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:47 PM, MN Transplant said: The Atlantic is a mess, but this is 11 days out. The initial vort that goes into TX doesn't even hit the pac NW until Monday! Expand Yeah, it's like the gays gathering for "game night". Messy. It's a good look tho. I hate the GFS. 1 10 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:45 PM, stormtracker said: It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land Expand Also who knows if it is even right with the 5th storm so doesn’t matter if the h5 is off with that one anything after is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:45 PM, stormtracker said: It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land Expand Def something you like to see. That’s the Miller A we’ve all been longing for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Doesn't work this time but the ceiling is about as high as it gets with that look. Plenty of blocking but with so much ns energy being thrown around this doesn't look like a long track pattern. Big storm may not be consistent until D3-5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:50 PM, TSSN+ said: Also who knows if it is even right with the 5th storm so doesn’t matter if the h5 is off with that one anything after is wrong Expand Yup. I honestly don't give any credence to anything after the 5/6th at this point. 5th is FAR from settled, especially with the Euro saying yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 One thing seems like a lock. We gon' have the cold for a while. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:40 PM, MN Transplant said: The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy. Expand When we have a pattern with plentiful cold air, I’m more willing then usual to shotgun shortwaves at us and see what lands. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Doesn’t even look like there was more than 2” of digital snow that entire run. Onto 0z… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Cool. High near 30 in Tallahassee next Saturday on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:49 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's like the gays gathering for "game night". Messy. It's a good look tho. I hate the GFS. Expand Hating the GFS is a must, till it shows something good… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Better 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 18z Euro coming out now. It goes out 144hrs, so we should have a decent idea whether it's holding serve. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:22 PM, CAPE said: Better Expand Yeah, that's what I like to see. Look at that 50/50 Low. This storm actually has a lot of upside potential NE of DC. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:56 PM, stormtracker said: Cool. High near 30 in Tallahassee next Saturday on the GFS. Expand Good time to go on vacation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:58 PM, CAPE said: Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol. Expand it shouldnt be that complicated with those characters. My guess is if this was the pattern last year with that strong STJ...we would be tracking something from 10 days out without much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 10:58 PM, CAPE said: Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol. Expand Dang man where was this blocking last year? Woulda been epic! Complicated is annoying as heck but, if it must be... Also, is the gulf spitting out some waves or am I not looking at it right? (I assume that's not the STJ?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:29 PM, Ji said: it shouldnt be that complicated with those characters. My guess is if this was the pattern last year with that strong STJ...we would be tracking something from 10 days out without much change Expand Models are showing some decent activity on the southern stream. I think they are just struggling to figure out when/if anything is going to phase. A big dog is still on the board imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Jan 6 has trended MUCH better. If we could get a boom scenario of 6-10" and then get a MECS/HECS on the 8-12th then I'd be satisifed for about a few years. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:24 PM, mitchnick said: 18z Euro coming out now. It goes out 144hrs, so we should have a decent idea whether it's holding serve. Expand I like it. Bit slower, souther, more HP above and out ahead. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:33 PM, CAPE said: I like it. Bit slower, souther, more HP above and out ahead. Expand How far south we want to keep seeing it go though? Eventually it will get crushed I feel. The cutter solutions def going away on the gefs. Now just need to juice up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:33 PM, CAPE said: I like it. Bit slower, souther, more HP above and out ahead. Expand I don't know what to root for with this one as I could see a fail in any direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:28 PM, bncho said: Good time to go on vacation. Expand Nobody goes to Florida on purpose dude. 7 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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