January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[TSSN+]

Man the gfs has been getting stomped. Hopefully that’s the case here and the euro is correct. 
 

 

[Ji]

I think we have all been trained and rightfully so to trust the least snowiest model. Why cant they just both show the same thing lol

[winter_warlock]

And so far as worrying about the next storm for the 10th... that's 240+ hours away!! lol. Would be ridiculous  to even  trust any  model  solution that far out lol   I'm waiting untill the  the first storm passes us by before even  worrying about the next one. The first storm alone  is still 7-8 days out by itself lol.    Gonna be alot of fun tracking them though!!!   I see this forum really getting busy next 2 weeks

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I think we have all been trained and rightfully so to trust the least snowiest model. Why cant they just both show the same thing lol

 Agreed!!!!

[frd]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Man the gfs has been getting stomped. Hopefully that’s the case here and the euro is correct. 
 

 

Yep, Euro doing very well. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Yep, Euro doing very well. 

Unless I'm looking at it wrong. It looks to me like the euro is performing the best of the models

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Me thinks we're gonna have to wait for that block to relax some...after whatever we get from early next week. It kinda how we roll...we're more of a relax climo 

6 inches to kick off a cold pattern with the chance for something big as it relaxes is like peak winter for us. 

[MillvilleWx]

The handling of the 5H vorticity across Canada will be important in the final outcome here as noted by the GFS/ECMWF discrepancies. Until one caves to the other, we will have dueling outcomes. The jury is still out for the setup and bet we haven't seen the final result yet out of any run. One thing that is notable is a majority of the these outcomes, regardless of evolution are yielding some form of snow/winter precip. Always good to have ways to score. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

6 inches to kick off a cold pattern with the chance for something big as it relaxes is like peak winter for us. 

Amen brother!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I don’t think people realize how cool that euro run is, pun intended. 4-8 region wide then into the ice box.  It has a high of like 16 degrees in dc next Thursday!  That’s some serious deep winter stuff with snowpack.  Plz god let it be correct. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Yep, Euro doing very well. 

Upgrade this year  that was sorely needed after the alleged 2018 "upgrade."

[brooklynwx99]

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table. this is a pretty typical DC-NYC setup (probably favoring PHL south)

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Man the gfs has been getting stomped. Hopefully that’s the case here and the euro is correct. 
 

 

for whatever reason the last 10 or so years it seems the Euro in winter does better in years where either its an El Nino or the PNA is + and the GFS does better in La Nina -PNA years.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Upgrade this year  that was sorely needed after the alleged 2018 "upgrade."

Don't even get me started on that one....

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO is crawling this morning. Must be loading the triple HECS

FIXED.

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Don't even get me started on that one....

The 18 upgrade was mostly focused on improving its accuracy over mainland Europe.  It did take care of the progressive bias it was having in the US though inside of 72 after the 2014 upgrade.  You could almost always shift every storm 50 miles north and it would work.  It definitely caused a more amped Op bias though from 84-120.

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table. this is a pretty typical DC-NYC setup (probably favoring PHL south)

That’s what I’m saying man. Forget the Big Dog hunting and go with the safest thing.  Right now, if we can lock in the Euro solution, I don’t care about anything else until AFTER we get that first taste. 

[T. August]

15 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I don’t think people realize how cool that euro run is, pun intended. 4-8 region wide then into the ice box.  It has a high of like 16 degrees in dc next Thursday!  That’s some serious deep winter stuff with snowpack.  Plz god let it be correct. 

I know it’s still 7 days away, but I’m a bit surprised more people aren’t happy with the euro

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That’s what I’m saying man. Forget the Big Dog hunting and go with the safest thing.  Right now, if we can lock in the Euro solution, I don’t care about anything else until AFTER we get that first taste. 

Precisely, we can't get em all at once 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That’s what I’m saying man. Forget the Big Dog hunting and go with the safest thing.  Right now, if we can lock in the Euro solution, I don’t care about anything else until AFTER we get that first taste. 

Hell with our winters lately 4-8” seems like a HECS lol 

[NorthArlington101]

35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Man the gfs has been getting stomped. Hopefully that’s the case here and the euro is correct. 

I think we say this every year and never do but we really should consider taking the CMC just as seriously as the GFS if not more 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think we say this every year and never do but we really should consider taking the CMC just as seriously as the GFS if not more 

When it got cold Thanksiving - early dec, the CMC verified better than the GFS. Not as good as the Euro, but still did a decent job. I'd pay attention to the CMC

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think we say this every year and never do but we really should consider taking the CMC just as seriously as the GFS if not more 

I never feel like the cmc is that good though when looking at its solutions vs what happens but, maybe I’m biased 

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table. this is a pretty typical DC-NYC setup (probably favoring PHL south)

One of the things I like about these setups is that stronger 850-700mb FGEN on the northern periphery of the precip due to that confluent feature over the Northeast. There tends to be multiple banding structures within the FGEN schemes, typically 7H FGEN located north and 85H located a bit further south. We've had cases of this in the past that overperformed, especially within that northern 7H FGEN band. The progression on the ECMWF would be a great start to the winter in these parts. Thermals look great. Strong CAD signature within the boundary layer. I'd sign on the dotted line at this point, but we know that ain't how it works lol

[Deck Pic]

40 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Yep. Rule of thumb is big storms eventually trend northwest... unless I read that wrong years ago lol

That used to be a big GFS bias on east coast storms.  Not sure if it is still the case.  Seems the errors tend to run in multiple directions more these days.

As far as QPF - yes...usually models will underdo the northwest extent of the precip shield and secondary banding.  

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think we say this every year and never do but we really should consider taking the CMC just as seriously as the GFS if not more 

Do those charts come in different time frames like which one is best at 240 then 200 on down etc?

[dallen7908]

Yes, the anomaly correlation score tells us that the UKMET, GFS, and CMC do a comparable job with the prognostic variables but one could argue that the method of determining the diagnostic variables is more accurate with the GFS. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

One of the things I like about these setups is that stronger 850-700mb FGEN on the northern periphery of the precip due to that confluent feature over the Northeast. There tends to be multiple banding structures within the FGEN schemes, typically 7H FGEN located north and 85H located a bit further south. We've had cases of this in the past that overperformed, especially within that northern 7H FGEN band. The progression on the ECMWF would be a great start to the winter in these parts. Thermals look great. Strong CAD signature within the boundary layer. I'd sign on the dotted line at this point, but we know that ain't how it works lol

this same thing happened last year in mid-Feb where ABE got 12" of snow on like 20-30:1 ratios from a clipper with a FGEN band

[Deck Pic]

13 minutes ago, T. August said:

I know it’s still 7 days away, but I’m a bit surprised more people aren’t happy with the euro

Even if we still get sucked in sometimes, a lot of us have learned our lesson and realized the total lack of value of operational runs outside of maybe 96-120 hours.  I've been looking at ensembles.  I average around 16" a winter. But around 50" in digital snow.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

When it got cold Thanksiving - early dec, the CMC verified better than the GFS. Not as good as the Euro, but still did a decent job. I'd pay attention to the CMC

I have been informally tracking this a bit and the Rgem/CMC frequently out performs most other suites when it comes to forecasting radiationally cooling.  Not overly helpful in precip situations but it is the go to for us when the situation is right.  It is often "too cold" but much closer to reality than not.