Alfoman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:30 PM, stormtracker said: lol...it cuts Expand GEM and GFS honestly relatively similar looks at 500 mb while the vort is still out west - GFS just quicker by 6-12 hours and cuts hard due to the interaction with the TPV vorticity in Canada sooner. After hour 156 though... good lord GEM has a nightmare reputation with deciphering a progressive NS like we'd have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 GFS would imply mostly snow and sleet before ending but its weak sauce https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024123012/gfs_ref_frzn_us_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 We getting greedy? lol That's not the storm we want. It's the follow up, we're looking to. If anything happens with the 6-7th, that's bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:30 PM, stormtracker said: lol...it cuts. Correction. Gets strung out? Yeah, it's a strung out mess...sorta like the GFS Expand it does not cut---it goes way south of us but gets sheared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 What in the lsd is going on here… lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:35 PM, Ji said: GFS would imply mostly snow and sleet before ending but its weak sauce https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024123012/gfs_ref_frzn_us_28.png Expand It's not weak sauce up north. You run a weather facebook page. You should know why. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:40 PM, TSSN+ said: What in the lsd is going on here… lol Expand I think we'd best heed Millersville's post earlier this morning. Models are gonna struggle with this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:42 PM, CAPE said: It's not weak sauce up north. You run a weather facebook page. You should know why. Expand You'll need to subscribe first to get an answer. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:44 PM, mitchnick said: You'll need to subscribe first to get an answer. Expand I actually posted it in 2 pictures above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 06z AIFS is a 1-2" baby thump followed by rain/sleet for the 6th. No follow up storms after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Sure would be nice to have some snow cover to see what kind of temps this could produce. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:37 PM, Ji said: it does not cut---it goes way south of us but gets sheared Expand I edited like 3 minutes after I typed that my dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Ukie is crushed...along with our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:54 PM, mitchnick said: Ukie is crushed...along with our dreams. Expand Meh these things keep flopping won’t concerned about it for a few more days I’m sure there a bunch of new solutions on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Rough 12z so far. I’m still hopeful for a 2-4” front end deal on the 6th. I don’t think that’s out of the question yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:37 PM, Ji said: it does not cut---it goes way south of us but gets sheared Expand You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 4:52 PM, WVclimo said: Sure would be nice to have some snow cover to see what kind of temps this could produce. Expand I would think that would generate something that produces some instability snow squalls especially if it was further south of us and maybe SW of us. not sure I have ever seen that look so I am also curious what it can do...fun things maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1st storm is 7-8 days out and second storm is 10-11 days out . I wouldn't even pay any attention to modeling for these storms till about Thursday for storm 1 and Monday for storm 2. Wayy too early to get excited or discouraged by what the models say now lol we all know those models will look totally different in A week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 11:30 AM, MillvilleWx said: That storm would be the penultimate blizzard verbatim. That has shades of 1993 written on it. A sharp shortwave dig phases across the SE US and causes the whole 5H axis to go negative east of the Mississippi. I would do unspeakable things for that to occur. Interesting that's a potential evolution in the cards. I'm utilizing the deterministic as an ensemble at this point to gauge potential. There's multiple ways to score in this pattern, but failure is 100% on the table when looking at how the pattern will evolve. I hope we hit on at least one. Expand This is what I mean when I say you all are way the hell overdue. If that evolution stayed all snow in DC, the outcome would be unspeakably glorious for snow enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:04 PM, BristowWx said: I would think that would generate something that produces some instability snow squalls especially if it was further south of us and maybe SW of us. not sure I have ever seen that look so I am also curious what it can do...fun things maybe. Expand That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see. 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:04 PM, winter_warlock said: 1st storm is 7-8 days out and second storm is 10-11 days out . I wouldn't even pay any attention to modeling for these storms till about Thursday for storm 1 and Monday for storm 2. Wayy too early to get excited or discouraged by what the models say now lol we all know those models will look totally different in A week Expand Speaking of not giving up until the shorter-range, I'll keep beating the Jan. 4 drum. ICON ens (as I understand it, a fork of the EPS) took about a ~200m jump to the NE. Still got 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:07 PM, MillvilleWx said: That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see. Expand Seen it modeled plenty of times like that at range, just never usually ever actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 @NorthArlington101 keeping the 4th alive at this point 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:18 PM, T. August said: @NorthArlington101 keeping the 4th alive at this point Expand Maybe we could try to the start two threads trick again from last year @NorthArlington101 can claim that responsibility though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:09 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Speaking of not giving up until the shorter-range, I'll keep beating the Jan. 4 drum. ICON ens (as I understand it, a fork of the EPS) took about a ~200m jump to the NE. Still got 5 days. Expand I have been keeping an eye on it too. GFS and CMC both have a coating, mostly for southern parts of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:19 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Maybe we could try to the start two threads trick again from last year @NorthArlington101 can claim that responsibility though. Expand We'll see what the EURO/EPS does... I've liked what we've done this year and made threads about 2 days out for the dusting-2" events. If discussion gets too clogged between our shots on the 4th/6th/10th(?) it makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:16 PM, TSSN+ said: Seen it modeled plenty of times like that at range, just never usually ever actually occurs. Expand Pretty hard to get the PV displaced over our hood. Can only imagine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 5:07 PM, MillvilleWx said: That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see. Expand We usually get at least some snow showers/squalls with the arrival of a true cA air mass. GFS sorts of hints at it with the snows along the boundary as it drops through the Midwest, but the model doesn’t think the moisture survives the mountains. I would think you’re correct that if heights crash that much, something would generate on the lee side of the Appalachians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I don’t think any storm will be modeled until 3 days before it actually takes place, especially with this upcoming pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I don’t believe that the PV right over our backyards is going to happen. I think storm tracks will verify further north than modeled, so I would mentally adjust any suppressive looks north. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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