January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[bncho]

Slightly afraid we lose our Jan 8-10 storm via supression.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Slightly afraid we lose our Jan 8-10 storm via supression.

The Day 11-13 storm? Pacific is trending not as cold, a few days ago it was pretty different actually with strong -EPO/+PNA, now it's just a weak pattern on the models. A weaker pattern actually allows things to cut, but we could be looking at upper 20s snow vs 10s it was showing before.  I think it will be an interesting bit of time here tracking it all. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z GEFS holds the -EPO, which is the colder solution.. 

https://ibb.co/Xy73Yf1

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Toss that run, kind of strange 

Glad I missed that shitshow. See what happens when I’m not around?  

[stormtracker]

57 minutes ago, Ruin said:

i sweat to go if this thing falls apart or ends up being a cutter im done lol 

This post is like when you get black out drunk, yakking the next day, feeling like death and saying: I’m never drinking again.   Then that night, you’re double fisting cocktails and shots again. 

[Ji]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Will’s map doesn’t tell the full story - goes HECS N MD and north. Close to a banger for everyone.

 

maybe this is the one...the one PSU told me to dismiss:) j/k

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe this is the one...the one PSU told me to dismiss:) j/k

lol. I just said why are you wanting to change anything on a run that gave you 20”!  But if storm one becomes a mecs so what. But everything affects everything else so rooting to change a lead wave when that solution lead to 20” 2 days later was odd and risky. That’s all. We have no control so it doesn’t matter. 

[psuhoffman]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Individual ensemble members all over the place, but I'm surprised how many show cutters.. it's not an unfavorable upper latitude pattern. Maybe just be happy that they are showing so many storms in the medium range! 

[Ruin]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's going to be hard for it to cut into a -NAO block. The Pacific isn't unfavorable.. I think the key is how cold it gets before hand. The pattern is still raging +NAO/+EPO right now so we'll have to see how this pattern change over the next few days goes. Worst case scenario, the -NAO is not as strong as currently projected.. 

Edit: We do already have -NAO today, I was a day or two ago. So the pattern change is already taking place.. gives more confidence to the solution. The H5 does let up a little during the storm, any trend towards a continuum is good, we have a good pattern on the front and back end. 

ive just seen this song and dance from the models before cold cold only to be pushed back 1 week 2 week a month then just disappear like a fart in the wind. More often then not the misses he models do are normally for cold and snow sadly 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

ive just seen this song and dance from the models before cold cold only to be pushed back 1 week 2 week a month then just disappear like a fart in the wind. More often then not the misses he models do are normally for cold and snow sadly 

 

We haven't had much upper latitude support for the last 8 years.. maybe a handful of months honestly. NAO has been positive 41/46 Winter months since 2013. RNA broke it's 7-year consecutive record by 175% (going back to 1948). Now the GFS is showing >+400dm -NAO for the next 15 days. I'm stressing this because the global pattern is more consistent than when models just show a trough over the area. Last year and the last few years it would show a trough and snow when we were in -PNA! It's different this time, meaning it would take a much greater shift to erase the "cold enough for snow" pattern that right now has global support. My only fear is that the -NAO is being over modeled. But it's pretty legit. If we get waves, some should be snow. Of course too, +PNA/-NAO correlates with dry, so it's nice to see an active pattern on these models. I'd rather them show several waves cutters right now with a major -NAO block being modeled and no -PNA. 

[Ruin]

I just want a good month or so of colder then normal and more snow then normal a good winter to kill off some of these japanese beetles and lantern fly's  it would be a plus too since i like both cold and snow 

[Yardstickgozinya]

If the more favorable projected pattern does verify, do any of you fellows know if  anything like that has ever lined up with solar max, and if so, what were the results of that ?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

PNA has been positive every day this Winter so far (since Dec 1), and it looks to stay that way through Jan 15th, with nothing lower than +0.5 being modeled. 

[stormtracker]

6z GFS at 276 for the win. A fantasy Folks.  
 

I-95 Miller A KU. That H5 map is what dreams are made of.  Enjoy it for 6 hours and then let’s get back to reality and focus on the 6th. 

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z GFS at 276 for the win. A fantasy Folks.  
 

I-95 Miller A KU. That H5 map is what dreams are made of.  Enjoy it for 6 hours and then let’s get back to reality and focus on the 6th. 

Cutter to suppression back to cutter lol. Gefs members starting to agree now it’s a cutter. 

[MillvilleWx]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z GFS at 276 for the win. A fantasy Folks.  
 

I-95 Miller A KU. That H5 map is what dreams are made of.  Enjoy it for 6 hours and then let’s get back to reality and focus on the 6th. 

That storm would be the penultimate blizzard verbatim. That has shades of 1993 written on it. A sharp shortwave dig phases across the SE US and causes the whole 5H axis to go negative east of the Mississippi. I would do unspeakable things for that to occur. Interesting that's a potential evolution in the cards. I'm utilizing the deterministic as an ensemble at this point to gauge potential. There's multiple ways to score in this pattern, but failure is 100% on the table when looking at how the pattern will evolve. I hope we hit on at least one. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That storm would be the penultimate blizzard verbatim. That has shades of 1993 written on it. A sharp shortwave dig phases across the SE US and causes the whole 5H axis to go negative east of the Mississippi. I would do unspeakable things for that to occur. Interesting that's a potential evolution in the cards. I'm utilizing the deterministic as an ensemble at this point to gauge potential. There's multiple ways to score in this pattern, but failure is 100% on the table when looking at how the pattern will evolve. I hope we hit on at least one. 

Can't disagree one bit, but the end of fantasyland on the Gfs ain't chopped liver either, though it starts a little warmer.

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Can't disagree one bit, but the end of fantasyland on the Gfs ain't chopped liver either, though it starts a little warmer.

The whole month of January is going to be really wild. Idk if everyone is ready for what's to come. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The whole month of January is going to be really wild. Idk if everyone is ready for what's to come. 

If we get a KU and the Ravens win the Super Bowl, i may do some bad things. 

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Cutter to suppression back to cutter lol. Gefs members starting to agree now it’s a cutter. 

The 6z GFS dropped the TPV hammer in behind the storm. Too much amplification. Not surprising that the GEFS reflects that, with the 'follow the leader' tendency the model has.

 

[mitchnick]

6z Euro/Eps a little faster than 0z in moving system eastward. No big changes other than that to these weenie eyes.

[CAPE]

Something to monitor for Tues-Wed next week is the GFS brings a trailing shortwave eastward and pops a coastal low off NC. The last few runs have done this and it is also reflected on the GEFS. The Euro wants to dig most of that energy into the SW.

[snowfan]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Something to monitor for Tues-Wed next week is the GFS brings a trailing shortwave eastward and pops a coastal low off NC. The last few runs have done this and it is also reflected on the GEFS. The Euro wants to dig most of that energy into the SW.

Some of our most active periods often have “surprise” events pop while everyone is focused on the main shows. 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

6z GFS at 276 for the win. A fantasy Folks.  
 

I-95 Miller A KU. That H5 map is what dreams are made of.  Enjoy it for 6 hours and then let’s get back to reality and focus on the 6th. 

Looked like Euro AI was showing it too just a few miles more east though. 

[MillvilleWx]

33 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The whole month of January is going to be really wild. Idk if everyone is ready for what's to come. 

I'm going to provide some background on what I mentioned about January. What is being advertised on model guidance is bordering on historical precedence when it comes to the potential Arctic outbreak over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS. There will likely be several shortwaves migrating through the flow that some sneaky light events could pop up on the proverbial radar that are not yet known, coupled with the more organized storm chances. There will be snow squall type activity that also would be available during the sharper Arctic air intrusions across portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast that will come into picture as we get closer. Strong Arctic boundaries provide modest amounts of instability and one thing we have learned from past cold outbreaks is a fresh injection of Arctic air is usually accompanied by significant low level lapse rates and mid-level ascent that would allow for opportunities of significant squall potential that could reach our latitude. 

The pattern will be complex in nature. Anytime you get a progressive northern stream involved, it will be tough for NWP to know specifics at range, so tread lightly with absolute declarations 5+ days out. Changes can occur and will likely have shifts to potential organized precip regimes up until game time. We know how it rolls around here. 

The big dog potential is real....but it is not set in stone. There's opportunity for nothing major in this pattern. Timing of disturbances and the phasing process/potential will be critical for the opportunities over the course of the pattern evolution. Messy phases or off timing could skunk us and leave us cold and dry for a majority of the outbreak. That is something I want to preach to people who are banking on a lot of snow. This is an intricate situation that has high reward AND bust potential in the snow/ice department. The one thing we are gaining a lot of confidence on is the duration of the cold and the sustainability of the pattern being opportunistic for multiple weeks, perhaps lingering into the back half of the month. That's why I say people might not understand the gravity of what is to come. I remain optimistic we will see snow, cautiously optimistic on something significant, and very confident on the duration of the cold. The magnitude of the cold is gaining traction that this will be the coldest spell in terms of both duration and magnitude since the extended cold outbreak of 2017 and potentially on par with some of the better Arctic intrusions the past 30 years. 

For those that are not super well versed on pattern evolution and NWP breakdowns, I HIGHLY suggest sitting back and taking notes, asking questions, and learning while others more versed interject. I did this for years, including while I was in college studying this stuff and it has paid off dividends. 

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

[frd]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Can't disagree one bit, but the end of fantasyland on the Gfs ain't chopped liver either, though it starts a little warmer.

Interesting height fields and representation East of Maine, wondering how the block intereacts and how it evolves. Very important . 

I believe it was several years ago, maybe more,  when our area was forecasted to have an extreme arctic airmass move in from Cenreal Canada,  but over the course of six days the Greenland block moved so far West and South the coldest readings were well west into the northern Plains and northern Texas.   It was a huge numerical model bust .  

 

 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

That storm would be the penultimate blizzard verbatim.

City crippler.....

[Buddy1987]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm going to provide some background on what I mentioned about January. What is being advertised on model guidance is bordering on historical precedence when it comes to the potential Arctic outbreak over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS. There will likely be several shortwaves migrating through the flow that some sneaky light events could pop up on the proverbial radar that are not yet known, coupled with the more organized storm chances. There will be snow squall type activity that also would be available during the sharper Arctic air intrusions across portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast that will come into picture as we get closer. Strong Arctic boundaries provide modest amounts of instability and one thing we have learned from past cold outbreaks is a fresh injection of Arctic air is usually accompanied by significant low level lapse rates and mid-level ascent that would allow for opportunities of significant squall potential that could reach our latitude. 

The pattern will be complex in nature. Anytime you get a progressive northern stream involved, it will be tough for NWP to know specifics at range, so tread lightly with absolute declarations 5+ days out. Changes can occur and will likely have shifts to potential organized precip regimes up until game time. We know how it rolls around here. 

The big dog potential is real....but it is not set in stone. There's opportunity for nothing major in this pattern. Timing of disturbances and the phasing process/potential will be critical for the opportunities over the course of the pattern evolution. Messy phases or off timing could skunk us and leave us cold and dry for a majority of the outbreak. That is something I want to preach to people who are banking on a lot of snow. This is an intricate situation that has high reward AND bust potential in the snow/ice department. The one thing we are gaining a lot of confidence on is the duration of the cold and the sustainability of the pattern being opportunistic for multiple weeks, perhaps lingering into the back half of the month. That's why I say people might not understand the gravity of what is to come. I remain optimistic we will see snow, cautiously optimistic on something significant, and very confident on the duration of the cold. The magnitude of the cold is gaining traction that this will be the coldest spell in terms of both duration and magnitude since the extended cold outbreak of 2017 and potentially on par with some of the better Arctic intrusions the past 30 years. 

For those that are not super well versed on pattern evolution and NWP breakdowns, I HIGHLY suggest sitting back and taking notes, asking questions, and learning while others more versed interject. I did this for years, including while I was in college studying this stuff and it has paid off dividends. 

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Thank you as always for your insight and detailed analysis of things. Really appreciate it! I think the biggest problem for myself is the fact of feeling jaded over the last several years plus of getting hopes up something will materialize and then before you know it the SER is here and it’s March with a trace of snow. The system on the 6th for example already seems to be trending the wrong way. Of course there’s plenty of time for things to change drastically and I’m seasoned enough to know now that one OP run isn’t the end all be all. Would do wonders to track something monster inside even 100 hours and see the mood in here explode in a good way. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro evolution for the 6th looks a little wonky to me.  Still not great agreement for this storm from the GFS/Euro/CMC.  Will be interesting to see how it ends up.