January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Can we please get a 1/12/96 repeat right after this ?

That actually was 1/7/96-1/8/96

[bncho]

Euro ensembles give about a 80-95% of 1 inch of snow or more by January 13.

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That actually was 1/7/96-1/8/96

After the main course on 1/7-8, we picked up another 4-6” event on the 12th.  It was actually forecasted to be 8-12” but was still a great “dessert.”

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I was wondering about...I'm having trouble seeing how we can have a legit threat then if it's gonna be as big of a cold push as modeled.

Why concern yourself with TOO MUCH COLD?

Not something we struggle with much lately lol

The upcoming pattern should not be the frustrating cold/dry warm/wet deal either if we in fact get the HL -AO/NAO/EPO trifecta. Can we still fail? Absolutely. But it will be bad luck with wave timing that will most likely be the culprit.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

After the main course on 1/7-8, we picked up another 4-6” event on the 12th.  It was actually forecasted to be 8-12” but was still a great “dessert.”

Storm total at PHL was 31”

[Paleocene]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro ensembles give about a 80-95% of 1 inch of snow or more by January 13.

With a DC/moco/pgc jackpot of probability. Book it.

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Storm total at PHL was 31”

Philly got another 3” on the 12th, after the blizzard.   I visited the city a week or so later when the flooding happened. Can still recall seeing the Schuylkill River at bank full.  What an extreme month that was !

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 12z EPS depicts snow on snow between the 6th and the 12th. Not a fan of snow maps at range, but this is indicative of the potential we are looking at for the upcoming pattern. Remember this is a mean, not to be interpreted as expected actual amounts. As such it is pretty impressive.

 

 

Side note- too bad there isn't an island chain due east of DE to take advantage of offshore lows and ocean effect snow with Arctic outbreaks.

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why concern yourself with TOO MUCH COLD?

Not something we struggle with much lately lol

The upcoming pattern should not be the frustrating cold/dry warm/wet deal either if we in fact get the HL -AO/NAO/EPO trifecta. Can we still fail? Absolutely. But it will be bad luck with wave timing that will most likely be the culprit.

 

Admittedly I may not have a clear understanding of the dynamics. I think I could be seeing it as "the colder the push the more likely it's suppressed", but I'm gonna guess I'm oversimplifying that?

[Weather Will]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 12z EPS depicts snow on snow between the 6th and the 12th. Not a fan of snow maps at range, but this is indicative of the potential we are looking at for the upcoming pattern. Remember this is a mean, not to be interpreted as expected actual amounts. As such it is pretty impressive.

 

 

Impostor hacked the real Cape account.  But very impressive.... long day putting away XMAS decorations....

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Admittedly I may not have a clear understanding of the dynamics. I think I could be seeing it as "the colder the push the more it's suppressed", but I'm gonna guess I'm oversimplifying that?

It’s possible it’s always a risk.  But the means look pretty good and that’s the best tool at this range. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s possible it’s always a risk.  But the means look pretty good and that’s the best tool at this range. 

See that’s where I disagree a bit… I like the medians and have tried to switch to those in my head. They are more cautious by nature and weigh out the outliers.

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m only poking holes in the EPS because I’m not gonna be there, so take this with that grain of salt, but the “median” outcome as opposed to the mean is suppression on the 9th, kinda like the OP. Not taking away from @CAPE’s analysis above - just noting.
 

Jan 6th has a better signal on the median. 
 

At long range, it's a crapshoot either way. The mean is what is generally used.

But hey if it helps you cope because you might miss out on something big, have at it! 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At long range, it's a crapshoot either way. The mean is what is generally used.

But hey if it helps you cope because you might miss out on something big, have at it! 

I both genuinely believe the median is better and only used less since it was new to WxBell last year… but it’s also a coping mechanism! If the 9th goes Miller A, I’ll be keeping this forum muted lol

[Weather Will]

Forum is laser focused on the ensemble period but the latest WB EPS weeklies continue to keep it below normal into the second week of February.  Pretty amazing if this verifies considering the consensus winter forecasts. Precipitation also normal to above.

 

 

[frd]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Forum is laser focused on the ensemble period but the latest WB EPS weeklies continue to keep it below normal into the second week of February.  Pretty amazing if this verifies considering the consensus winter forecasts. Precipitation also normal to above.

 

 

What a drastic change. Several ongoing elements such as the SSWE , - NAM state, favorable MJO, and Changes in the PDO. 

I have heard some mets talking about the cold transitioning to the West by late Jan.  

Weeklies show different outcome. Ah...the love of weather! 

[WesternFringe]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why concern yourself with TOO MUCH COLD?

Not something we struggle with much lately lol

The upcoming pattern should not be the frustrating cold/dry warm/wet deal either if we in fact get the HL -AO/NAO/EPO trifecta. Can we still fail? Absolutely. But it will be bad luck with wave timing that will most likely be the culprit.

 

This.  I know suppression can be a concern, but this forum is always harping on it not being cold enough. Then, we get excellent cold being modeled and we have folks harping on suppression!  Lol

The way I see it, it snows a lot in Canada and Alaska and Siberia, etc.  It is pretty cold in those places.

[Heisy]

12z euro Ai much better for the event on the 6th. Solid thump. I think the OP is on crack sending the SLP that far N with that TPV sitting in SE Canada. I don’t buy it. Ensembles generally agree.


.

[Solution Man]

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The 12z EPS depicts snow on snow between the 6th and the 12th. Not a fan of snow maps at range, but this is indicative of the potential we are looking at for the upcoming pattern. Remember this is a mean, not to be interpreted as expected actual amounts. As such it is pretty impressive.

 

 

Not a fan either, but it’s nice to see something different than a i-95 straddler with nothing to the SE and minimal amounts to the NW of that line. That usually means we get nothing outside of the mountains. But this is a good signal from 8-14 days out. 

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

A little smaller please

[NorthArlington101]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z euro Ai much better for the event on the 6th. Solid thump. I think the OP is on crack sending the SLP that far N with that TPV sitting in SE Canada. I don’t buy it. Ensembles generally agree.


.

Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain. 

[Heisy]

Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain. 

The best lift is up towards PA. Dc never gets above freezing at 850. At face value it would probably be snow, mix to dry slot, but it’s very close at being a good hit vs the OP euro


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[bncho]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain. 

Thermals are borderline, getting steadily warmer from 30 at 192hrs to ~35 at 216 hrs

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1873126580274528634?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

EPS implies a legit Miller A here.

 

Thank god. Cold smoke instead of a jumper that screws us all. In all seriousness I think there is some historic cold coming. The overall pattern on the models supports it. I am interested to see just how cold we can get in the modern world though. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Remember this is a mean

Thats a ridiculous mean though....

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

the latest WB EPS weeklies continue to keep it below normal

Maybe we get relaxations that pound us numerous times this winter. Possible very fun times coming. And the cold would help whatever falls stick around for weeks. 

[Heisy]

Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain. 

I think it looks fine verbatim anyway, close enough





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[mattie g]

1 hour ago, frd said:

What a drastic change. Several ongoing elements such as the SSWE , - NAM state, favorable MJO, and Changes in the PDO. 

I have heard some mets talking about the cold transitioning to the West by late Jan.  

Weeklies show different outcome. Ah...the love of weather! 

It’s almost like seasonal forecasting is basically a crapshoot!