January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[CAPE]

[frd]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe we’ll get a Chattanooga Choo Choo storm.  I think that’s a thing

Appears the Jan 8th - Jan 10 th system in the Southern Plains , then in the northern Gulf then cruising across Fla. on the Euro OP. Lets see the EPS next 

GEFS as @CAPE posted above looks a million times better. 

[Ji]

Disaster run of Euro

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

How about a Saskatchewan Scooter? 

Screamer I think.  Could be wrong because we get none of them ever.  

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

Disaster run of Euro

I love your pessimism. I can't stand highs of 17 and 22 everyday.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ji said:

Disaster run of Euro

And we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming.  

[CAPE]

There is more action on the GEFS between the 9th and 12th but but too diffuse on the mean- would need to dig into the individual members to sort it out and not worth the effort at this range. Upshot is cold with more precip chances.

 

[brooklynwx99]

very good agreement between the three major ensembles on a MECS pattern developing... all have a -EPO, -NAO, rising PNA, a 50/50 ULL, and an elongated TPV. all have an amplifying trough over the Plains to take advantage of the setup. not really sure if it's the wave on the 6-7th or the 8-9th... ensembles have the trough really blowing up for the latter timeframe. regardless, we're getting into the timeframe where this isn't really fantasy anymore

[clskinsfan]

38 minutes ago, frd said:

With this look have to think hard about snow chances, seems to be a massive push of arctic cold way South, and with it any hopes for snow .  

 

 

Yeah. I mentioned it earlier. Good thing is it has to relax at some point. And that is usually when we get clobbered. 

[aldie 22]

Ill take the over on historic cold

[WEATHER53]

The too cold is two tiered 

if the high is pretty close to southern extreme of Hudson Bay then we are good.  The further south it centers itself, then suppression becomes an issue. 

[frd]

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873079254445178916

Mike Thomas  @MikeTFox5

Good news is that the new afternoon European Ensembles still showing everything you want them to show for a mid-range forecast. Also showing a pretty darn decent nor’easter signature around the 9th. Devil’s always in the details though. Still looks like some very exciting times ahead to me  That’s it for the 12z runs! More updates later with the 0z cycle!

 

 

[Conway7305]

Some good looks here on 12z Ensembles

 

[Conway7305]

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Some good looks here on 12z Ensembles

 

I’ll take member 36, please. Getting BECS-y there.

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

 

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Meteorologists were captivated by an emerging atmospheric pattern that looked almost identical to the setup that hosted the Blizzard of January 6–8, 1996.  

by: @bncho

Can we please get a 1/12/96 repeat right after this ?

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

17/50 members show 6+ inches for DC.

32/50 members show 3+ inches for DC.

Fun times ahead.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

 

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Meteorologists were captivated by an emerging atmospheric pattern that looked almost identical to the setup that hosted the Blizzard of January 6–8, 1996. A deep trough in the jet stream was predicted to dig into the eastern U.S., while a strong ridge over the western Atlantic hinted at steering a powerful low-pressure system up the coast. Arctic air was poised to plunge south, locking in frigid temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic.

Forecasters began monitoring the January 6–10 timeframe for potential impacts. While it was too early to predict specifics, the hype around a major winter storm began to grow.

Sunday, December 29, 2024

The developing storm system became clearer. A low-pressure system in the Pacific Northwest was forecast to dive southeast into the Plains, tapping into Gulf moisture. Meanwhile, a robust Arctic high was taking shape over eastern Canada, funneling cold air southward into the Mid-Atlantic and setting the stage for significant winter weather.

Meteorologists emphasized that while the ingredients appeared to be coming together, the storm's exact track would be critical. A coastal low that tracked too far east would result in lighter snow, while a closer track could bring heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions.

Monday, December 30, 2024

Confidence in the general setup increased as models consistently showed a strong coastal low forming near the Gulf of Mexico by January 5. This low was expected to intensify and track northeast along the Atlantic seaboard. The Mid-Atlantic looked likely to be directly in the path of the storm, but exact timing and snowfall totals remained uncertain.

Forecasters noted that any snowfall would likely begin on January 7 and intensify late that day, with the heaviest snow on January 8. Early buzz about "a storm for the ages" began circulating in weather communities.

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

By New Year’s Eve, meteorologists felt increasingly confident that the Mid-Atlantic would experience a significant snowstorm. The coastal low’s projected track was becoming clearer: it would hug the coast just enough to maximize snowfall across the region.

Preliminary estimates suggested snow totals of 12–24 inches for northern Virginia, central Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania, with higher amounts possible in isolated areas. Winter storm watches were expected to be issued in the coming days.

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

As the new year began, attention shifted to the intensifying low-pressure system forecast to develop near the Gulf of Mexico. Cold Arctic air had firmly settled over the region, and forecasters predicted that snow would start falling midday on January 7, with the heaviest accumulations occurring overnight into January 8.

Local governments began preparing for a significant winter event, and residents were advised to start gathering supplies. Snowfall projections continued to trend upward, with some areas potentially exceeding two feet of snow.

Thursday, January 2, 2025

Winter storm watches were issued for much of the Mid-Atlantic. Models showed remarkable agreement, with the storm predicted to rapidly intensify as it tracked up the East Coast. Meteorologists highlighted the risk of heavy snow, strong winds, and widespread power outages.

Projected snowfall totals ranged from 18–30 inches across northern Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania, with blizzard conditions possible during the height of the storm. Residents were urged to finalize preparations before the first flakes began to fall.

Friday, January 3, 2025

Forecasters refined their predictions as the low-pressure system began to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Snowfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour were expected during the peak of the storm, and winds gusting up to 50 mph could create dangerous whiteout conditions.

By now, schools and businesses had announced closures for January 7 and 8, and emergency crews were on standby. The Mid-Atlantic braced for what was shaping up to be a historic snowstorm.

Saturday, January 4, 2025

The storm system began to gain strength over the Gulf of Mexico, visible on satellite imagery. Winter storm warnings replaced watches across the Mid-Atlantic as the storm’s track became clearer. Snowfall totals of 20–36 inches were forecast for the hardest-hit areas, with coastal flooding and power outages expected along the Eastern Seaboard.

The first flakes were now expected by midday on January 7, with snowfall intensifying through the evening and into January 8. Meteorologists emphasized the storm's potential for paralyzing impacts.

Sunday, January 5, 2025

The low-pressure system moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and began its trek along the southeastern U.S. coastline, rapidly intensifying. Meteorologists warned that snow would begin on January 7 and persist through January 8, with the heaviest snow and strongest winds expected late on January 7 into the morning of January 8.

Residents across the Mid-Atlantic scrambled to complete preparations. Grocery stores were packed, and local governments finalized their response plans.

Monday, January 6, 2025

The storm continued to strengthen as it approached the Carolinas. Skies in the Mid-Atlantic turned gray, with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s. Snow was expected to begin by midday on January 7, ramping up quickly as the storm moved up the coast.

Forecasters stressed that this would likely be a generational storm, with snowfall totals exceeding two feet in many areas. Winds of 40–50 mph would create blizzard conditions, with drifts of 4–6 feet possible in rural and open areas.

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

By midday, the first flakes began falling across northern Virginia and central Maryland. Snow quickly intensified, with rates of 1–2 inches per hour by evening. Roads became treacherous within hours, and power outages began as heavy, wet snow downed trees and power lines.

Overnight, snowfall rates peaked at 2–3 inches per hour. Winds gusted to 45 mph, creating whiteout conditions. Emergency crews struggled to keep up, and many residents were forced to hunker down and wait out the storm.

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

The storm reached its peak intensity overnight and into the early morning hours. By dawn, many areas had already seen 20–30 inches of snow, with drifts towering even higher. Winds began to ease by midday, but light snow lingered through the afternoon as the storm slowly pulled away.

Final snowfall totals were staggering: 28 inches in D.C., 30 inches in Baltimore, and 34 inches in Philadelphia. Some areas in central Maryland reported over 36 inches, rivaling the Blizzard of 1996 in severity and impact.

Thursday, January 9, 2025

The storm was gone, but its impacts lingered. Roads remained impassable in many areas, and power outages stretched into their second day for thousands. Cleanup efforts were underway, but the sheer volume of snow made progress slow.

Residents marveled at the storm’s power and the eerie similarities to 1996’s blizzard. For many, it was a storm they would never forget.

Friday, January 10, 2025

Life began to return to normal as roads were cleared and power was restored to most areas. Schools and businesses reopened, though some areas still struggled with lingering snowdrifts.

The January 2025 storm had earned its place in history, cementing its reputation as one of the most significant snowstorms the Mid-Atlantic had ever seen. Residents would talk about this storm for decades, comparing it to the legendary Blizzard of 1996.

by: @bncho

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He was trying a @George BM post

[yoda]

12z EPS mean was just under 6" at DCA 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, yoda said:

12z EPS mean was just under 6" at DCA 

That’s the snowiest in several years I believe. Doubly impressive when it’s all after about D6-7. Mean for the 8-10th window is almost 3” alone. @Weather Will’s 1” odds will show 80-90%+. 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EPS mean was just under 6" at DCA 

Send photo please.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s the snowiest in several years I believe. Doubly impressive when it’s all after about D6-7. Mean for the 8-10th window is almost 3” alone. @Weather Will’s 1” odds will show 80-90%+. 

EPS more of a swfe look for the mid Atlantic for the 6th to 7th wave. Lots of hits for the dca/bwi area. 

[CAPE]

EPS implies a legit Miller A here.

 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Can anybody DM me their WxBell account details? I’m broke. 

Looks like you're getting lost on threads:

 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like you're getting lost on threads:

 

Sorry. I forgot that existed.

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Disaster run of Euro

 

[NorthArlington101]

I’m only poking holes in the EPS because I’m not gonna be there, so take this with that grain of salt, but the “median” outcome as opposed to the mean is suppression on the 9th, kinda like the OP. Not taking away from @CAPE’s analysis above - just noting.
 

Jan 6th has a better signal on the median. 
 

[CAPE]

The 12z EPS depicts snow on snow between the 6th and the 12th. Not a fan of snow maps at range, but this is indicative of the potential we are looking at for the upcoming pattern. Remember this is a mean, not to be interpreted as expected actual amounts. As such it is pretty impressive.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m only poking holes in the EPS because I’m not gonna be there, so take this with that grain of salt, but the “median” outcome as opposed to the mean is suppression on the 9th, kinda like the OP. Not taking away from @CAPE’s analysis above - just noting.
 

Jan 6th has a better signal on the median. 
 

That's what I was wondering about...I'm having trouble seeing how we can have a legit threat that's not suppressed if it's gonna be as big of a cold push as modeled.