Ji Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 4th seems dead af to meThe 4th was never alive to have died 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Don't mind the 00z CMC look at the end of its run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The 6-8 period still active on the GFS. Disorganized slug of mess goes to our west tho. For this timeframe, we good.Go with Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Go with Canada Yeah, I'd roll the dice with that vs GFS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 10th looking spicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 10th looking spicy.More like a dash of chili powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Weather Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 WOW!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 7 minutes ago, Frederick Weather said: WOW!!! Looked so good it brought out even the rare posters? 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872887141560402245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Congrats VA Beach lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 yeah, 6z GFS pummles VA Beach. Really hoping suppression isn't what kills us. I like where we sit though being this is still like 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 29 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Congrats VA Beach lol They’re due for a decade of snowfall in a day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Everyone that gets giddy over the avocado progs is getting giddy over suppression. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Everyone that gets giddy over the avocado progs is getting giddy over suppression. That comes after our back to back snowstorms. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 5 hours ago, bncho said: “Today will be cold with a high of 6 and a low of -2.” Circa 1994! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The 7-8th potential storm on the 6z GEFS- 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Circa 1994! or Feb 2015. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Way out there and a little more diffuse but there is a signal for the 10th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The 0z EPS has storm signals for the 6-7th and again around the 10th. Ditto for the CMC ens. Nice to see agreement on the same general timeframes. No details. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Interestingly the 6z Euro has a much more distinct/sharper shortwave embedded in the flow at the end of its run. Something to keep on eye on for the 12z suite. Although Jan 4 has never looked like a big storm potential, hints for something minor have been there on some op runs and ens guidance. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 WB 6Z GEFS; this is all week two but it is the best GEFS run so far this winter. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 15 hours ago, WVclimo said: Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet. IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023). Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years. Thank you for this. I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore. But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57, 71-77, 89-94 to name a few. I try to look at it as a positive. If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing, 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Thank you for this. I think people forget that it does snow around here in the winter. The past several years have been so far below normal that I think it is starting to make people believe that it might not snow anymore. But if you look at the past 80 years, there are several stretches like the one we are in now, 49-57, 71-77, 89-94 to name a few. I try to look at it as a positive. If history is a guide, we are due for an epic run of snow. I refused to even to accept the alternative. It is just too damn depressing, Agreed. Even if you believe the it's getting much harder to snow around here theory (I definitely do). It's still more likely to snow a bit then not snow at all. Especially between now and Feb 15th. Models look great. Let's keep it coming thru New Year's for some epic runs on NYE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 6 hours ago, bncho said: “Today will be cold with a high of 6 and a low of -2.” Or out this way. Cold with a high of -4 and a low of -14. Sheesh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS; this is all week two but it is the best GEFS run so far this winter. Those are pretty solid. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: Interestingly the 6z Euro has a much more distinct/sharper shortwave embedded in the flow at the end of its run. Something to keep on eye on for the 12z suite. Although Jan 4 has never looked like a big storm potential, hints for something minor have been there on some op runs and ens guidance. If we got the Jan 4 storm back, it would be a nice reminder of the timeframe our storms usually appear in. I’m one of the guilty parties, but we’ve been trying to track individual threats in the long range for a week now, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Based on the mslp anomalies, all ensembles seem to agree on a good track for us between 1/6-10. So far this is holding well. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 MJO is trending more amplified into 8-1 as we head into January, we will take all the help we can get. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Based on the mslp anomalies, all ensembles seem to agree on a good track for us between 1/6-10. So far this is holding well. For the initial storm, there is definitely a Miller B look among some members, with initial lower pressure to our NW- more so on the EPS. Given the advertised pattern the NS is going to be busy and as we get closer tracking wave interactions and timing is going to be 'fun' lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: For the initial storm, there is definitely a Miller B look among some members, with initial lower pressure to our NW- more so on the EPS. Given the advertised pattern the NS is going to be busy and as we get closer tracking wave interactions and timing is going to be 'fun' lol. This could be one of those periods where we close well as these vorts get over the upper air and surface observation network. Suddenly a coating - 1" turns into a widespread 3" - 5" then reinforcing cold air. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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