CAPE Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: hey, you were the one who told me to check! I knew you already did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: "PWAT"? And also...I do question February as I see in the general thread that the nina seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and getting a bit more established. Makes me wonder if that means we see a more typical nina-like February torch or not. https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pwat Quote PWAT Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks basically like climo to me, so I'd toss, but those maps rarely pan out anyway. Just get me to 2025 and then we can start looking at actual threats. Except all the snow falls the last 7 days. Normally we see the whole 15 day mean look like that…if the run were to continue it would look better than climo. But you’re seeing a below climo week and an above one. This is a pretty good 7 day mean compared to what we typically see recently 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: "PWAT"? And also...I do question February as I see in the general thread that the nina seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and getting a bit more established. Makes me wonder if that means we see a more typical nina-like February torch or not. Precipitable Water Amount. As @Bob Chill has said several times, we're at one of the drier times of the year so it's not surprising that we aren't seeing big dog snowstorms at D15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Keep in mind the first 7 days look like this lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Even PSU is slightly optimistic. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: No biggies this run but lots of activity. Probably gonna get real busy in here come this time next week. Thinking back to the ensembles from a few days ago. Honestly, I think it gets busy in here starting sooner rather than later say this Saturday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except all the snow falls the last 7 days. Normally we see the whole 15 day mean look like that…if the run were to continue it would look better than climo. But you’re seeing a below climo week and an above one. This is a pretty good 7 day mean compared to what we typically see recently Until there is a persistent discrete threat, this is probably about as good as it gets at this range over a 5 or 7 day window. Problem is it can go right back to looking paltry the next run, and it really means nothing wrt the upcoming potential. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agreed. As it stands now, is we score on 1/4 it would be a boom scenario. We do have decent cold air arriving from a fresh source region with this event, so it would not take a lot for us to score a decent advisory-level event. screams rain to snow event 2-4" / 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Until there is a persistent discrete threat, this is probably about as good as it gets at this range over a 5 or 7 day window. Problem is it can go right back to looking paltry the next run, and it really means nothing wrt the upcoming potential. We really should still be looking at the general long wave pattern at this point not trying to worry too much about specific synoptic threats yet (except the Jan 3-4th wave) but people are getting anxious and acting like the day 10-15 stuff is day 5-10 or even less… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: We really should still be looking at the general long wave pattern at this point not trying to worry too much about specific synoptic threats yet (except the Jan 3-4th wave) but people are getting anxious and acting like the day 10-15 stuff is day 5-10 or even less… This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time It did actually snow both times we identified a better pattern last year. But not nearly as much as we hoped for. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time I'm not panicking--I'm just an impatient little bitch. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time I call this the human pendulum season. I try to invite psych majors in here during winter months for their research papers/studies. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time This basically sums up the last five years on this forum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I call this the human pendulum season. I try to invite psych majors in here during winter months for their research papers/studies. Oh they'd have a field day in here! Plenty of case studies...(but do you seriously invite them, though?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It did actually snow both times we identified a better pattern last year. But not nearly as much as we hoped for. I’m close to the point where I’d be surprised if we get totally skunked. But that doesn’t mean big totals. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 WPC going cold 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 I’m close to the point where I’d be surprised if we get totally skunked. But that doesn’t mean big totals.Yea i agree I bet we see at least a front end type system with the potential CAD and cold air available, I’d be shocked if we get shut out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Just now, Heisy said: Yea i agree I bet we see at least a front end type system with the potential CAD and cold air available, I’d be shocked if we get shut out your AI EURO friend has something along those lines for the 5th - keeps going more amped/not as great for our subforum, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Last Sunday at 4:22 pm I said that Jan. 3-8 was a 5 day threat period.............................. To bat 1000, I think that I will stand pat.................. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet. IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023). Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m close to the point where I’d be surprised if we get totally skunked. But that doesn’t mean big totals. None of the analogs were snowless. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like we are solidly in the no risk area 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: WPC going cold That is huge. Best post ever. You never see that. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 49 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet. IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023). Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years. 2023 was not a happy winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 So, I'm finally getting back into model watching. The 4th is dead on the 18z. But the next "thing" looks....not dead...but could cut or be to close for comfort. Or be nothing. Ya know, I should be paid for this analysis. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 18z back to the dumps. Back for 0z hammer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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