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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....


Weather Will
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  On 12/27/2024 at 7:03 AM, psuhoffman said:

Maybe because it was 13 days away. A cow farts in a different direction tonight and things shift 500 miles at that range. Exponential error growth over time and chaos. But you know that you’re just trying to rile up Howard for entertainment. 

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thats what i was trying to do--just rile up Howard

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  On 12/27/2024 at 12:23 PM, CAPE said:

If you really want to know stop looking at the surface. All you care about is seeing blue though, and whinging when you don't.

It all happens upstairs. Relatively minor differences in timing/interactions between shortwaves can make a big difference in sensible weather for a given locale, and there are going to be differences between operational cycles at range because each iteration gets a fresh set of initial parameters to integrate/extrapolate, and the further out in time the model does that, the more likely there will be a different outcome at particular time/place than than the previous cycle.

 

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Thanks for explaining to me like I am 3. I was just trying to rile up Howard

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