January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Ji]

how does a model lose a storm that 6 hours ago covered 1500 miles of land @WEATHER53

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

how does a model lose a storm that 6 hours ago covered 1500 miles of land @WEATHER53

That box hadn’t been checked yet.

I feel powerful forces in the works 

 

 

[Ji]

Euro gives us some ice Jan 5-6

[Ji]

Euro with miller b crap Jan 9-10

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

GFS loses Jan 8-9 storm. From blizzard to desert

Maybe because it was 13 days away. A cow farts in a different direction tonight and things shift 500 miles at that range. Exponential error growth over time and chaos. But you know that you’re just trying to rile up Howard for entertainment. 

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro with miller b crap Jan 9-10

You really gonna start play by play each run for day 10-15 stuff?  I know it’s been a long time and it’s frustrating but that doesn’t change the fact anything past 150 hours is likely to change significantly every single run, like hundreds of miles or maybe not even be there anymore. And even inside 150 we can’t look at details until the final 72 hours. You’re looking at unicorn fantasy land stuff. 

[Ruin]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

how does a model lose a storm that 6 hours ago covered 1500 miles of land @WEATHER53

we have had storm after storm last 10 years go from all out bomb on the coast with temps in the 20s 30s to a apps cutter or to a all out lake cutter and temps jump to the 50s and you just get rain. never hear any explanation for these things the only thing you hear is it wasnt our storm lol.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

we have had storm after storm last 10 years go from all out bomb on the coast with temps in the 20s 30s to a apps cutter or to a all out lake cutter and temps jump to the 50s and you just get rain. never hear any explanation for these things the only thing you hear is it wasnt our storm lol.

On that note, when was the last time a modeled cutter trended back to a coastal bomb? Seems the bomb to cutter scenario plays out far more often.

[CAPE]

Strong signal for an east coast storm on the 0z GEFS for the 8-9 window.

[CAPE]

The 0z EPS has a Miller B signal for the 6th, and then another potential wave beyond that. Jan 6-10 looks very active on on the mean. A little too soon and don't have time to pore over the individual members for details, but this run definitely does not look dry.

[CAPE]

Both the GEFS and EPS depict significant vorticity in the southern stream around the 8th- indication of a digging shortwave, which correlates to a surface low near the SE coast.

 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

how does a model lose a storm that 6 hours ago covered 1500 miles of land @WEATHER53

If you really want to know stop looking at the surface. All you care about is seeing blue though, and whinging when you don't.

It all happens upstairs. Relatively minor differences in timing/interactions between shortwaves can make a big difference in sensible weather for a given locale, and there are going to be differences between operational cycles at range because each iteration gets a fresh set of initial parameters to integrate/extrapolate, and the further out in time the model does that, the more likely there will be a different outcome at particular time/place than than the previous cycle.

 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If you really want to know stop looking at the surface. All you care about is seeing blue though, and whinging when you don't.

It all happens upstairs. Relatively minor differences in timing/interactions between shortwaves can make a big difference in sensible weather for a given locale, and there are going to be differences between operational cycles at range because each iteration gets a fresh set of initial parameters to integrate/extrapolate, and the further out in time the model does that, the more likely there will be a different outcome at particular time/place than than the previous cycle.

 

Dude it’s JI, this is nothing new lol 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Dude it’s JI, this is nothing new lol 

I know. He needs scolding once in awhile, as futile as it is.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know. He needs scolding once in awhile, as futile as it is.

20+ years and running 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know. He needs scolding once in awhile, as futile as it is.

He knows though. It’s just his coping mechanism. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He knows though. It’s just his coping mechanism. 

Finally figured out what JI stands for. 
 

Just Ignore 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Cold January incoming. EPS with strongly negative 2m temp anomalies from the 1st through the 11th.  That’s our prime window right there.  Still have the low sun angle so we can actually accumulate during the day. 

[CAPE]

A minor event for Jan 3-4 is still a possibility, and would likely be our first chance of frozen coming out of the mild period. Ens means are still hinting, specifically the GEFS and CMC ens. Shortwave energy is there on the op runs, just a matter if a piece can sharpen up soon enough to get some precip going.

 

[CAPE]

Since it is our earliest shot at precip with some colder air in place, I took a peak at the 6z GEFS members for the Jan 3-5 window, and there are a half dozen or so that produce frozen precip. 3 significant- 2 for our area and one that misses south, and a few others that would be something minor. The rest are dry/offshore.

[GATECH]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He knows though. It’s just his coping mechanism. 

He should try coping with alcohol like the rest of us!

[yohan]

12 hours ago, bncho said:

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen.

https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

spin once and got SECS

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I know. He needs scolding once in awhile, as futile as it is.

Usually by now as we are tracking a decent pattern he is already posting about the back end of the pattern and thaw.....so we've avoided that trainwreck at least.

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, yohan said:

spin once and got SECS

 

BECS over here 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Usually by now as we are tracking a decent pattern he is already posting about the back end of the pattern and thaw.....so we've avoided that trainwreck at least.

Last year the pattern would still be 14-21 days away.  Now we are flipping to a colder regime almost for sure in about a week. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, yohan said:

spin once and got SECS

 

I got 1-3 so I didn't post lol.

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Both the GEFS and EPS depict significant vorticity in the southern stream around the 8th- indication of a digging shortwave, which correlates to a surface low near the SE coast.

 

If the EPS ic correct at range,  cold air should not be an issue. Coldest early Jan since 2018 possibly. 

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

BECS over here 

Yesterday 3x spin: C-1” 2x and 3-5”

Today? 3.5”, MECS, HECS

A trend? 

 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yesterday 3x spin: C-1” 2x and 3-5”

Today? 3.5”, MECS, HECS

A trend? 

 

If only 

[Lowershoresadness]

32 minutes ago, yohan said:

spin once and got SECS

 

let me take a couple of quaaludes and spin that baby