January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Going to be honest, we're trying for our first Garrett County mesonet site in Bittinger. It would be great if we can get the concrete poured 12/30 and the equipment install finished on 1/6. That would give everyone on this site additional surface data in western Maryland. Hopefully we can squeeze this in before things get snowy.

I would take a miss on 1/4 for a HECS or BECS on 1/8-10.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS tries on Jan 2 but it’s really too warm at the surface… need to push that storm back a few days or at least overnight. 

[MillvilleWx]

6 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Recent runs of the globals say those historically cold analogs like Jan 1977 may have been on to something.

I hope not. What an absolutely brutal stretch. A ton of cold, record cold at that and very little snow to show for it. That would make many here pretty unhappy. I would not want that scenario and that’s sort of what I’m seeing on the GFS. If we miss the boat on the front end of the PV drifting down….I will personally be pretty annoyed and ready for spring. 

[Weather Will]

0Z runs definitely took the Christmas spirit (hope) with them.  Trend or blip TBD.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS tries on Jan 2 but it’s really too warm at the surface… need to push that storm back a few days or at least overnight. 

The whole 0Z GFS was a comedy of "cold dry/ warm wet" with stiff cold shots interspersed with torches as our beloved Baja trough makes a reappearance.  Let us hope it does another 180 degree turn at 6Z.

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z runs definitely took the Christmas spirit (hope) with them.  Trend or blip TBD.

The GEFS still looked pretty to my eyes...

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The GEFS still looked pretty to my eyes...

WB 0Z GEFS is very dry after the deluge this weekend.  So is the WB EPS.

[MillvilleWx]

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see. 

[frd]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I hope not. What an absolutely brutal stretch. A ton of cold, record cold at that and very little snow to show for it. That would make many here pretty unhappy. I would not want that scenario and that’s sort of what I’m seeing on the GFS. If we miss the boat on the front end of the PV drifting down….I will personally be pretty annoyed and ready for spring. 

Dry was always a concern. Seasonal models predicted subnormal precip. We only get dumped on during the transition period to cold. Which is rain. It's a bummer. 

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see. 

I 100% buy we will get stiffed. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see. 

This is probably a nitpick but the h5 look depicted in the LR on the GEFS has a broader 'bowl' shaped trough with the ridge axis a bit further west, while the latest EPS runs have a more prominent Aleutian trough with the downstream ridge/trough configuration shifted a bit eastward. The GEFS look would seem more conducive to getting earlier low pressure development with a track right along the east coast. The EPS depiction could have more of a tendency for offshore low pressure. 

[IronTy]

JB is not pushing the panic button yet but says the AI is blowtorching the US and that he's concerned.  

[WVclimo]

Just now, IronTy said:

JB is not pushing the panic button yet but says the AI is blowtorching the US and that he's concerned.  

Fantasy-range GFS disagrees

 

[dailylurker]

The bipolar is off the charts in here this morning lol

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, 87storms said:

Agreed…were the clusters based off only those 18 cases? I took a machine learning class over the summer, hence why I’m interested in this stuff. I noticed there’s a couple of distinct clusters (assuming this was based off k-means, etc) with similar teleconnections. Also wondering if it would be better to adjust the snow total down to 4” to create a larger dataset.

Yes, the clusters were only based off the 18 DCA cases. I was looking at significant snowfalls. Had I used the 4" cutoff, there would have been 24 cases.

[stormy]

29 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

By bipolar is off the charts in here this morning lol

Ain't it sweet   

[WxUSAF]

 

[donsutherland1]

Baltimore's 6"+ January Snowstorms (1950-2024):

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see. 

I agree with the way we could fail but seeing 1977 show up isn’t necessarily doom yet because 1977 shows up every time we’re in a good snowstorm pattern. I remember in the weeks leading up to some of our HECS storms in 2010 and 2016, 1977 was in the analogs.  Unfortunately the differences between us getting a big snowstorm and just a cold dry week are pretty subtle and can’t be parsed at range.  But in general we don’t want the PV to drop too far, unless it’s going to phase into a monster superstorm like yesterday’s 18z gfs almost did. 

[Bob Chill]

Didn't take long for Christmas spirit to wear off. Couldn't even wait until the day ended 

January's are rarely wet months when it's cold. It's the lowest pwat time of year. But it can't snow without cold as we are reminded of continuously lol. 

77 and 85 analogs are good in my thought computer. I'll take guaranteed cold over guaranteed precip on any long range look then let the details shake out nowadays.

Precip has been overperforming in numerous ways last handful of year. I'll let the thermodynamic peeps explain why lol. Perfection is not a thing we do here. Even when it shows up its no guaranty of anything. Our area rarely walks out of a cycling cold period without some fun. Let's get into the cycle before canceling it maybe? Lol. 

[Paleocene]

Last January showed that when we get chances with legit cold, we can score. I had snow sticking to/covering the streets in my neighborhood for the first time in years. In January 2019 we also had a snow/frigid cold pattern that worked out. I'll take the cold and hope for the best.

[wasnow215]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Didn't take long for Christmas spirit to wear off. Couldn't even wait until the day ended 

January's are rarely wet months when it's cold. It's the lowest pwat time of year. But it can't snow without cold as we are reminded of continuously lol. 

77 and 85 analogs are good in my thought computer. I'll take guaranteed cold over guaranteed precip on any long range look then let the details shake out nowadays.

Precip has been overperforming in numerous ways last handful of year. I'll let the thermodynamic peeps explain why lol. Perfection is not a thing we do here. Even when it shows up its no guaranty of anything. Our area rarely walks out of a cycling cold period without some fun. Let's get into the cycle before canceling it maybe? Lol. 

Sometimes some can make every thread there in a "Panic Room" lol

[wxdude64]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with the way we could fail but seeing 1977 show up isn’t necessarily doom yet because 1977 shows up every time we’re in a good snowstorm pattern. I remember in the weeks leading up to some of our HECS storms in 2010 and 2016, 1977 was in the analogs.  Unfortunately the differences between us getting a big snowstorm and just a cold dry week are pretty subtle and can’t be parsed at range.  But in general we don’t want the PV to drop too far, unless it’s going to phase into a monster superstorm like yesterday’s 18z gfs almost did. 

 

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Didn't take long for Christmas spirit to wear off. Couldn't even wait until the day ended 

January's are rarely wet months when it's cold. It's the lowest pwat time of year. But it can't snow without cold as we are reminded of continuously lol. 

77 and 85 analogs are good in my thought computer. I'll take guaranteed cold over guaranteed precip on any long range look then let the details shake out nowadays.

Precip has been overperforming in numerous ways last handful of year. I'll let the thermodynamic peeps explain why lol. Perfection is not a thing we do here. Even when it shows up its no guaranty of anything. Our area rarely walks out of a cycling cold period without some fun. Let's get into the cycle before canceling it maybe? Lol. 

Yep, give me cold, I'll roll the dice with the precip. In '85 I had a -19 low and the month was a -5 with about 6 inches of snow. No records for me for '77, but as a young teen I remember we had snow OTG for better than 3/4's of the month and boy was it cold! Looking at local CO-OPs, around 8-10 inches of snow for the month and around a -12 on temps.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Baltimore's 6"+ January Snowstorms (1950-2024):

Thanks @donsutherland1! Really amazing to see how important it is to have a cooperative pacific.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see. 

It would be terrible news for the drought up in this neck of the woods reservoirs are down still 20 feet or so.

[Benjamn3]

I will deff take some cold in place then hope to thread the needle. Can’t make the play without you’re most important player on the field. Not to mention ground temps when the snow shows up. It’s nice to have everything good and cold so that first flake sticks. 

[NorthArlington101]

Really wish the EPS would show any precip around for the 3rd-5th window but it's dry as a bone... too bad since the GFS keeps trying to show a hit somewhere in the subforum in that period.

[VA Mad Man]

4 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

I 100% buy we will get stiffed. 

We are used to getting stiffed around here

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I mentioned it the other day, but that early January 1970 cold snap was really frigid.  I have some great memories of sledding on snow as hard as concrete.

Here was the peak of it at BWI

December 1963 is on that list too and finished around -10 for the month.

[clskinsfan]

48 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 

Yep, give me cold, I'll roll the dice with the precip. In '85 I had a -19 low and the month was a -5 with about 6 inches of snow. No records for me for '77, but as a young teen I remember we had snow OTG for better than 3/4's of the month and boy was it cold! Looking at local CO-OPs, around 8-10 inches of snow for the month and around a -12 on temps.

I am with you. Plus if the cold sticks around any snow that falls sticks around and becomes a glacier. Gotta have the cold to have snow.