stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Just now, Weather Will said: Merry Christmas!!!! You too friend. Hope Santa gets you and your fam everything you want and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Just now, stormtracker said: You too friend. Hope Santa gets you and your fam everything you want and more. You too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:28 PM GEFS masterclass 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Tuesday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:30 PM 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS masterclass Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up with a triple phaser....probably would cut but point is there are numerous possibilities from minor to major. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Tuesday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:41 PM Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up.Good times ahead ralphie. Both 18z gfs andEuro take a few waves to break down the ridge and are both close around that wave on 4-5th. If pattern plays out how it looks now we should get some snow. Merry Christmas/happy holidays . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 12:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:18 AM Solid signal on the HH/Xmas eve GEFS for the 4th-5th. 21 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:23 AM 7-8 members have frozen for the MA in the 4-5 window, biased somewhat southward. 2 big hits. 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM 18z AI EURO has a modest hit Jan. 5. Little more fuel for the Jan 4-6 threat window fire. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Wednesday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:15 AM 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z AI EURO has a modest hit Jan. 5. Little more fuel for the Jan 4-6 threat window fire. That's an odd map. Typical of AI tbh. Wrapped up low in Pittsburgh with the 850 line into NC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Wednesday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:28 AM Here's the H5 of the surface map posted above. Ive seen worse maps. Grain of salt....an AI op a ways out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:30 AM 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Here's the H5 of the surface map posted above. Ive seen worse maps. Grain of salt....an AI op a ways out there. His was 288. Yours is 210... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:31 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:31 AM 1 minute ago, yoda said: His was 288. Yours is 210... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Wednesday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:30 AM 1 hour ago, yoda said: His was 288. Yours is 210... My bad, uploaded the wrong one i had saved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Wednesday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:03 AM DT started barking now: we know what that means 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Wednesday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:12 AM 8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: DT started barking now: we know what that means We're doomed? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Wednesday at 05:27 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:27 AM total cave 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:28 AM 00z GEFS brought presents ETA @brooklynwx99 beat me to it 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Wednesday at 06:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:09 AM 43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: total cave Its nice to see it back away from the western trough. I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though. ETA: Puny to him anway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Wednesday at 06:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:54 AM Its nice to see it back away from the western trough. I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though. ETA: Puny to him anway.We don’t want or need an overbearing block. Semi “weak” to moderate as well as decaying blocks have produced many of our biggest snowstorms in years past. It’s what couples with that block that’s important. A favorable PAC / - EPO / -NAO and the presence of a southern jet is a huge signal for our neck of the woods. Subject to change of course, but this is truly the best setup we’ve seen on models roughly 10 days out in several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 11:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:22 AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted Wednesday at 11:42 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:42 AM 6z GEFS really honking this run for the 3-5th window. Just playing follow the leader? Big difference from 0z. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 11:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:46 AM 9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's an odd map. Typical of AI tbh. Wrapped up low in Pittsburgh with the 850 line into NC? That's called "Global Cooling" Merry Christmas Everyone!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 11:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:54 AM The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event. I'll take 5 inches and be happy. ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals. GEM is blind to any threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:05 PM The WPC likes the ECM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:59 PM 1 hour ago, stormy said: The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event. I'll take 5 inches and be happy. ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals. GEM is blind to any threat. That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:01 PM 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: 6z GEFS really honking this run for the 3-5th window. Just playing follow the leader? Big difference from 0z. Unfortunately this is all due to one member that shows a BECS - that’s the only snowy member for the 4th. Still plenty of time, though, ho ho ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Wednesday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:07 PM 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out. Looks like a good track. Just marginal temps. 200 hours out so it won't looks that way in 6 hours anyway lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Wednesday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:09 PM 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out. I’ve heard this before has to be added to the list from the other day. This cutter track is locked in. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Wednesday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:22 PM Fair to say models are almost useless until the pattern change truly kicks in? Obviously can still sniff storms out in the LR but solutions are useless until the change? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:28 PM 7 hours ago, cbmclean said: Its nice to see it back away from the western trough. I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though. ETA: Puny to him anway. Look at these puny blocking signals We don’t necessarily need some 2010 -3stdv omega block to get a snowstorm. Actually that’s not the most common way, simply because they are so rare. And sometimes they lead to suppression. what we do need is enough of a epo/pna/ao/nao combo (it’s all a degree trade off between them) to get a deep eastern trough that extends into the Atlantic centered south of our latitude. The pattern on all the guidance right now looks totally fine to me for delivering the chance at a snowstorm. Now we just wait to see if it’s right and then if we get lucky with wave spacing. That’s it imo. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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