January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[stormtracker]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Merry Christmas!!!!

You too friend.   Hope Santa gets you and your fam everything you want and more. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, stormtracker said:

You too friend.   Hope Santa gets you and your fam everything you want and more. 

You too!!!

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS masterclass

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS masterclass

Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up with a triple phaser....probably would cut but point is there are numerous possibilities from minor to major.

[Heisy]

Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up.

Good times ahead ralphie. Both 18z gfs and
Euro take a few waves to break down the ridge and are both close around that wave on 4-5th. If pattern plays out how it looks now we should get some snow. Merry Christmas/happy holidays


.

[CAPE]

Solid signal on the HH/Xmas eve GEFS for the 4th-5th.

 

[CAPE]

7-8 members have frozen for the MA in the 4-5 window, biased somewhat southward. 2 big hits.

 

[NorthArlington101]

18z AI EURO has a modest hit Jan. 5. Little more fuel for the Jan 4-6 threat window fire. 
 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z AI EURO has a modest hit Jan. 5. Little more fuel for the Jan 4-6 threat window fire. 
 

That's an odd map. Typical of AI tbh. Wrapped up low in Pittsburgh with the 850 line into NC?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Here's the H5 of the surface map posted above. Ive seen worse maps. Grain of salt....an AI op a ways out there.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Here's the H5 of the surface map posted above. Ive seen worse maps. Grain of salt....an AI op a ways out there.

His was 288.  Yours is 210...

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

His was 288.  Yours is 210...

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

His was 288.  Yours is 210...

My bad, uploaded the wrong one i had saved.

[LeesburgWx]

DT started barking now: we know what that means

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

DT started barking now: we know what that means

We're doomed?

[brooklynwx99]

total cave

[yoda]

00z GEFS brought presents 

ETA @brooklynwx99 beat me to it

[cbmclean]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

total cave

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.

ETA: Puny to him anway.

[jayyy]

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.
ETA: Puny to him anway.

We don’t want or need an overbearing block. Semi “weak” to moderate as well as decaying blocks have produced many of our biggest snowstorms in years past. It’s what couples with that block that’s important. A favorable PAC / - EPO / -NAO and the presence of a southern jet is a huge signal for our neck of the woods. Subject to change of course, but this is truly the best setup we’ve seen on models roughly 10 days out in several years.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[poolz1]

6z GEFS really honking this run for the 3-5th window. Just playing follow the leader?  Big difference from 0z.

[stormy]

9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's an odd map. Typical of AI tbh. Wrapped up low in Pittsburgh with the 850 line into NC?

That's called "Global Cooling"

Merry Christmas Everyone!!

[stormy]

The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event.  I'll take 5 inches and be happy.

ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals.

GEM is blind to any threat.

[stormy]

The WPC likes the ECM

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event.  I'll take 5 inches and be happy.

ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals.

GEM is blind to any threat.

That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out.

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

6z GEFS really honking this run for the 3-5th window. Just playing follow the leader?  Big difference from 0z.

Unfortunately this is all due to one member that shows a BECS - that’s the only snowy member for the 4th. Still plenty of time, though, ho ho ho. 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out.

Looks like a good track. Just marginal temps.

200 hours out so it won't looks that way in 6 hours anyway lol.

[Kevin Reilly]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a cutter every day of the week. Thankfully it's 200hrs out.

I’ve heard this before has to be added to the list from the other day.  This cutter track is locked in.

[Duca892]

Fair to say models are almost useless until the pattern change truly kicks in? Obviously can still sniff storms out in the LR but solutions are useless until the change? Thanks!

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.

ETA: Puny to him anway.

Look at these puny blocking signals

We don’t necessarily need some 2010 -3stdv omega block to get a snowstorm. Actually that’s not the most common way, simply because they are so rare. And sometimes they lead to suppression.
 

what we do need is enough of a epo/pna/ao/nao combo (it’s all a degree trade off between them) to get a deep eastern trough that extends into the Atlantic centered south of our latitude.  The pattern on all the guidance right now looks totally fine to me for delivering the chance at a snowstorm. Now we just wait to see if it’s right and then if we get lucky with wave spacing. That’s it imo.